Players from both the PGA and DP World Tour's will tee it up this week in Scotland in their final tune-up before golf's final major The Open Championship next week. That brings me to my 2023 PGA DFS: Genesis Scottish Open DraftKings Preview.
My recent lineup at the Rocket Mortgage from this article scored 581 points with Emiliano Grillo missing the cut. If it were not for Sepp Straka's insane final round 62 which included a double bogey on his final hole, I could have had back-to-back weeks of the eventual winner coming from this article.
This week's event is a DP World Tour event, but with it taking place the week before The Open Championship, most of the top players from the DP and PGA Tour will compete this week at the Renaissance Club in Scotland.
Full disclosure: I'm not as well versed with the DP World Tour, as I am with the players on the PGA Tour. Like the players teeing it up in Scotland, I am using this week as a tune-up for golf's final major The Open Championship.
You can find me on Twitter @KeithFlemming to keep the conversation going! Be sure to listen to me during my weekly guest appearance Wednesdays at 1pm eastern on The Inside Drive on ESPN Northwest Radio. Where I will preview that week's PGA Event.
2023 PGA DFS: Genesis Scottish Open DraftKings Preview
Venue (The Renaissance Club)
#GenesisScottishOpen @ The Renaissance Club
-Par 70, 7,237 yds
-Tom Doak design (2008) - North Berwick, Scotland
-Parkland/heathland/ocean links hybrid
-Carved through a forest of evergreens, undulating sand-based terrain
-Weather is the X-factor
-2019, 2021 in calm conditions… pic.twitter.com/ONzeRTJmWw
— Ron Klos (@PGASplits101) July 10, 2023
This year marks the fifth consecutive time the Scottish Open is played at The Renaissance Club. In its second year as a PGA co-sanctioned event, it boasts the strongest field in the event's history.
The Renaissance Club sits exposed on the North Sea coastline. This makes it susceptible to significant changes in the weather from day-to-day or even hour-to-hour. The forecast has played a huge role in the scoring of this event over the last four years.
Calm conditions in 2019 and 2021 led to easy conditions and low scores. Last year due to consistent wind and rain the winning score was only seven under par. Rain and wind in 2020 and 2022 caused the scoring average to be three shots higher per round than in 2019 and 2021.
The forecast this week is calling for consistent rain in three of the four rounds and wind gusts in the 10-20 mph range all four days.
This year the Renaissance Club will play as a Par 70 with a unique mix of three par 5s, five par 3s, and ten par 4s. Typically in links-style courses you want to target players who are elite ball strikers and play well in windy conditions. Historically at this event players who gain the most strokes off the tee tend to find their way to the top of the leaderboard by week's end.
None this week, instead I would pay attention to the comprehensive strokes gained data shared by Ron Klos below.
Going back to 2014, here are the comprehensive Strokes Gained data rankings for the #GenesisScottishOpen field which covers every round played on links courses, including each Open Championship course, Alfred Dunhill Links courses, Hillside, Yas Links, Fairmont St. Andrews, Al… pic.twitter.com/Sh2k90EAXg
— Ron Klos (@PGASplits101) July 11, 2023
- Strokes Gained Ball Striking
- Strokes Gained Off The Tee
- Recent Form
- Strokes Gained Around The Greens
- Strokes Gained Putting (Slow Greens/3 Putt Avoidance)
- Par 5 Scoring
- Course and Comp Course History
My 2023 PGA DFS: Genesis Scottish Open DraftKings Lineup
Rickie Fowler ($9,500)
A champion once again ?
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) July 2, 2023
When we last saw Rickie Fowler he had just won the Rocket Mortgage in a playoff against Collin Morikawa and Adam Hadwin. Fowler had been searching for that win for what felt like ages. What was most impressive about his win was the way he played his last two holes. He birdied the 18th hole twice in the span of about 20 minutes on Sunday. A hole that had been birdied by only eight other players that entire round.
Fowler now has the proverbial monkey off his back. I expect great things the rest of the year from him. Staring over the next two weeks on link-style courses. Fowler is 10th in strokes gained on links courses over the past decade. He also has a stellar record at The Open Championship with nine top-30 finishes in his career. I think he's a safe play to do well this week and at a slight discount at this price.
Another option in this price range: Jordan Spieth ($9,300) Spieth is 1st in strokes gained on links courses over the last decade.
Wyndham Clark ($9,000)
— Throwing Darts (@ThrowingDartss) July 7, 2023
The defending US Open champion returns to The Renaissance Club following his T16 finish in his debut appearance at the event last year. Over his last nine events, Clark has two wins, four top 5s, and eight top 30 finishes. Wyndham is one of my favorite players at his current odds 50-1 to win this week.
Clark is top 15 in the field in strokes gained total, tee to green, ball striking, short game, approach, around the greens, and putting. He's eighth in the field in DraftKings scoring. Yet he is the twelfth most expensive player in the field. I think you are getting him at a serious discount with his recent play and the fact he played well in his first appearance at this venue/event.
Another option in this price range: Min Woo Lee ($8,900) Lee won this event in 2021 and finished T30th in 2020 during similar weather conditions to those expected this week.
Ludvig Aberg ($8,200)
It has only been 41 days since Ludvig Aberg hit his final collegiate golf shot ? pic.twitter.com/boeMhLIfS2
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) July 9, 2023
Ludvig Aberg is the next big thing in golf from Europe. He has lived up to the hype since he turned pro on May 29th by finishing the season ranked number 1 on the PGA Tour U. It is only a matter of time before he is a player who consistently costs 9k or more on DraftKings. I plan on using him as much as possible while he is in this price range.
The most common stat in players who have found success at The Renaissance Club is strokes gained off the tee. Watch the video below if you have any doubts of what Aberg can do with a driver in his hands. In his last four events, he has made 80 birdies and four eagles. This kid is made for DraftKings.
Some players fade it. Some players draw it.
Ludvig Aberg hits them long and straight ? pic.twitter.com/aPyPf4vuLY
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) July 7, 2023
Adam Scott ($8,100)
This week's Scottish Open should serve as a window into next week's Open Championship, as we try to identify and target the game's best links players — including a few with some intriguing odds.
Scottish Open betting guide:https://t.co/o8Lp3rtWhr
— Jason Sobel (@JasonSobelTAN) July 10, 2023
Scott checks all the boxes of what I am looking for in a player over the next two weeks. He's 19th in the field in strokes gained off the tee, has three top-10 finishes in his six events, and has a great track record on links golf courses. He is 14th over the last decade in strokes gained total on links courses.
I have stated several times over the last month when using Scott in my DraftKings plays how he seems to have found his iron game. That was the one part of his game in 2023 that was not strong early in the year. Over his last six events, Scott has gained 4.8 strokes total on approach. In the previous six events before that in 2023 he had lost 13.3 strokes in the same category.
Alex Smalley ($7,900)
Over his last 16 rounds, Alex Smalley is gaining the second-most strokes on Approach on Tour at 1.54 per round behind only Scottie Scheffler who is at 2.03.
The 5.9 he gained on approach on Saturday was the third most in a single round on Tour over the last two years.… pic.twitter.com/37twJk01ep
— Ron Klos (@PGASplits101) July 9, 2023
Alex Smalley is by far my favorite this week on DraftKings at his price. Only Scottie Scheffler is gaining more strokes on approach over their last six rounds than Smalley. He's top 20 in the field this week in strokes gained approach, tee to green, and ball striking.
Smalley has two top-10 finishes in his last four events with his runner-up finish at The John Deere Classic last week. He finished T10th in his only links golf course start last year in this event. I think Smalley is a great bet this week to finish top 5 or top 10 at this event.
Another option in this price range: Thomas Detry ($7,500) Detry has finished no worse than 30th the last three years at this event including a T10 last year and a runner up finish in 2021.
Jordan Smith ($7,200)
— ADC (@adcnews_online) June 3, 2023
If you are like me and typically only watch PGA Tour events you may not be aware of Jordan Smith from England. He is a very solid golfer who plays great on link-style courses. In his two appearances at this event, he has two cuts made and two top-40 finishes. Last year he finished T24 at this event.
Smith is someone who hits it a long way off the tee and is 19th in the field in strokes gained off the tee. He has a recent top 10 finish at the European Open and is 24th in strokes gained on links-style courses over the past decade. I think Smith is a safe play to make the cut. And it would not surprise me if he is in contention on Sunday. At this price range on DraftKings, you can't ask for anything more than that.
Another option in this price range: Brandon Wu ($7,100) Wu finished T6 in his first appearance at this event last year and is 20th in the field in DraftKings scoring despite there being forty-eight players more expensive than him this week.
Now that you have read the 2023 PGA DFS: Genesis Scottish Open DraftKings Preview, be sure to check out the rest of our golf content, including my show Two off the Tee on the Fantasy Six Pack YouTube Channel Tuesday night. Each week, my cohost Allen and I will break down the tournament for that week and give betting/DFS plays.