Jon Rahm picked up his third win this calendar year at Riviera on Sunday. Regaining his number-one world ranking in the process. After a handful of tournaments out West, the tour moves to the sunshine state to start the Florida swing this week. And that brings me to my 2023 PGA DFS: Honda Classic DraftKings Preview.
The Honda Classic is not an elevated field event and therefore doesn't have the same number of top players in the world in its field as the previous two weeks. That's the problem with being sandwiched between four elevated events in the WMPO, Genesis, Arnold Palmer Invitational, and The Players.
Luckily for golf fans, PGA National is the draw for this week. The very difficult course, particularly the famous Bear Trap(Holes 15-17) will bring many players to their knees this week. For me and many other golf fans, that makes the event must watch tv.
Sunrise @PGANatl 🌤️#HondaClassic pic.twitter.com/7wDlJ9ijw2
— The Honda Classic (@TheHondaClassic) February 21, 2023
You can find me on Twitter @KeithFlemming to keep the conversation going!
2023 PGA DFS: Honda Classic DraftKings Preview
The Venue (PGA National)
The Bear Trap (Holes 15-17) will garner all the attention this week and rightfully so. That three-hole stretch is the fourth most difficult three-hole stretch on tour, but that is not the only difficult stretch at PGA National. This course is the most difficult on tour for approaches beyond 150 yards.
The Par 70 plays over 7,100 yards and is anything but a traditional short course on tour. That features some of the tightest fairways on tour and forces players to layup rather than challenge tight doglegs. Only 11% of shots into greens are inside 125 yards, something you will not see on a modern tour stop.
You want to look for great mid to long iron players at this venue. Players will hit 65% of their approach shots from 125-200 yards. A number well above the tour average.
- Concession Golf Club
- Bay Hill
- Muirfield Country Club
- SG Approach/SG Ball Striking
- Proximity 125-200 yards
- Bogey and Double Bogey Avoidance
- SG Putting (Bermuda)
- SG Total (Difficult Conditions)
My 2023 PGA DFS: Honda Classic DraftKings Preview (Lineup)
Matt Kuchar ($9,300)
Highest % winning trends for the #HondaClassic
*Five players fit all six trends...
Aaron Baddeley pic.twitter.com/Ube62X50Zo
— Ron Klos (@PGASplits101) February 21, 2023
I was really close to spending the money and including Sungjae Im in my official lineup this week but wanted to save the money to spend elsewhere. Kuchar is a great player to have as the anchor of my lineup this week.
He's in good recent form with two Top 10s in his last four starts. He's made the cut at this event in all four appearances and is in the top thirty on tour in greens in regulation and bogey avoidance.
Another option in this price range: Sungjae Im $10,300
Denny McCarthy ($9,100)
With 15 Water Hazards in play, PGA National ranks out as a course that has "Many" hazards in play.
Top Golfers on Water-Lined Tracks:
1) Sungjae Im
2) Aaron Wise
3) Shane Lowry
4) Thomas Detry
5) Taylor Pendrith
6) Lee Hodges
7) Denny McCarthy
8) J.T. Poston
9) Cam Davis pic.twitter.com/k4WmC0giwB
— Eric Polzin (NinetoFiveSports) (@925_Sports) February 21, 2023
McCarthy is one of the best players on tour on water hazard courses. He is one of the rare players who plays his best golf on difficult courses. He plays almost half a stroke better on tough tracks. When you combine that with his recent form (Two Top15s in his last three starts), I think he's a great play for DraftKings this week and a good bet to win the event.
Another option in this price range: Thomas Detry $9,000
Adrian Meronk ($8,300)
History for Poland golf! 🇵🇱 @AdrianMeronk becomes first Polish player to make a @PGATOUR cut in United States.
T33 into Sunday @thegenesisinv
Warms the heart. https://t.co/NcjK6huJgc
— Kevin Prise (@PGATOURKevin) February 19, 2023
If you don't know who Adrian Meronk is yet, you will soon. The Polish player was the first golfer from Poland to make a cut in the states on the PGA Tour last week. On top of getting his legs on the PGA Tour last week, he's had a win and two other Top 10s on the WT Tour since the end of November.
Meronk was great tee-to-green last week at Riviera and gained over 2 shots on the field off the tee. He is known for being a great ball striker and has the pedigree to contend in his first trip to PGA National.
Ben Griffin ($7,900)
If you have been following my DFS Golf lineups on this site this season, you are well aware of Ben Griffin. The PGA Tour rookie has made a name for himself with five top-35 finishes in his last six starts on tour. Griffin is the perfect kind of player to find success at this venue.
He's gaining over four strokes total on the field this season and well over two strokes off the tee. I like the fact he's scored 70 points or more on DraftKings in seven of his last nine events. I expect him to ball-strike his way to a Top 20 at PGA National.
Another option in this price range: Sepp Straka $8,500
Robby Shelton ($7,800)
Honda Classic - is a tournament in which a longshot bet can win. Below are two players that are looking like the best "values" based off of their current odds and how they are expected to play this week.
Robby Shelton - Currently 80/1
Adam Schenk Currently 110/1 pic.twitter.com/3xXdbosh4A
— Eric Polzin (NinetoFiveSports) (@925_Sports) February 20, 2023
Shelton missed the cut in this event in his last appearance but finished T11 in his only other start at this venue. He's made the cut in four of his last five starts on the PGA Tour. Including two top 20 finishes in the last month.
I like that Shelton had success at two venues you can't overpower in Pebble Beach and Sea Island in the last few months. My only concern with Shelton this week is his ability to putt well on Bermuda greens. I do think there is great value in this play at this price on DraftKings and at his current odds on betting boards.
Byeong Hun An ($7,600)
🟩 Outright Pick @TheHondaClassic ⬛️
🧸Couse History: MC, T4, T36, T5
🔥Strokes Gained ARG: 1st
🥪Bunker Proximity: 4th
🎯SG OTT Par 70/71s < 7,200: 8th
🐻"Benny An Solo and ChewbaccaBear"
💰Byeong Hun An: 90-1 @BetRivers pic.twitter.com/QLZfSeYH5Z
— The Model Maniac (@TheModelManiac) February 20, 2023
Byeong Hun An is arguably my favorite play this week, particularly at his price on DK. An has made the cut in four straight events on tour and has rounds in the 60s in ten of his last sixteen rounds.
He has a great track record at this event. Including two top 5s in his last 4 starts here. He has a great short game around the greens and is one of the better players on Tour off the tee on difficult venues. An's 12th place finish at the Sony Open in January was a reminder of what he can do on tough courses. Particularly courses where players can't just bomb driver off every tee.
Another option in this price range: Kramer Hickock $7,400
Be sure to check out my show Two off the Tee which will debut on the Fantasy Six Pack YouTube Channel Tuesday night. Each week, my cohost Allen and I will break down the tournament for that week and give betting/DFS plays.