The PGA Tour moves on from a thrilling first major of the year this past weekend at The Masters. I will get to my 2023 PGA DFS: RBC Heritage DraftKings preview in a few, but first need to talk about the big headlines from the 2023 Masters.
Masters Takeaways
Jon Rahm
Jon Rahm cemented himself as the best player in the game with his win on Sunday. This second career major continues his dominance on tour during the 2022-2023 season. He has four wins, six Top 10s, and eight Top 10s in only nine events this season.
Rahm played like a player who knew exactly what he had to do to win this event on Sunday's marathon finish. That's especially true for a player who can be ultra-aggressive with his style of play, sometimes to his detriment.
Rahm has now adapted and improved his temper and style of play as he evolves into the great player he is today. That's really bad news for the rest of the tour. I would be shocked if Rahm doesn't win another major by the time we reach the 2024 PGA Championship.
LIV Tour came to play
The Masters was the first event to feature all players eligible from both tours since the separation last year. I found it amusing that Sunday the LIV Tour was given more eyeballs and exposure from CBS than it will ever see on the CW network. The home of the tour for television and streaming. Patrick Reed, Brooks Koepka, and Phil Mickelson were featured heavily with all three finishing in the top four on the back nine.
Some will argue Jon Rahm saved the PGA Tour from a nightmare scenario of a LIV player winning the first major of this season. In my opinion that level of hyperbole is too much, but there is no doubt the PGA Tour would have been unhappy with a LIV player winning.
Did Koepka's struggles have to do with him playing LIV-style events? It had been quite some time since he was in contention for a traditional four-round event. The fact Patrick Reed and Phil Mickelson played so well on Sunday hurts said argument.
Phil Mickelson
Finally, I have to admit I was so impressed with Phil's 65 on Sunday and not just because I had him as one of my favorite plays on the latest Two Off the Tee episodes at 7-1 to top 20.
He became the oldest player in the history of The Masters to finish the event inside the top five. I will say the crowd's reaction to Phil's charge on Sunday was substantially quieter than it was before he left for LIV. If two years ago Phil Mickelson in his fifties shot 65 on Sunday at Augusta, with a birdie on the 18th to get within two of the lead. The crowd would have gone bonkers.
You can find me on Twitter @KeithFlemming to keep the conversation going!
2023 PGA DFS: RBC Heritage DraftKings Preview
Much like the Honda Classic, the RBC Heritage is at a really difficult spot in the PGA Tour schedule. How do you follow up the first major of the year at Augusta National? The PGA helped The Heritage in a way it did not with The Honda by making this week's event elevated.
This will be the first elevated event that significantly strengthens the strength of the field this season. A majority of the top stars will play this week with the exception of Rory McIlroy. That includes the newly crowned Masters Champion Jon Rahm.
Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head is a traditional short, positional course. You need to target guys who drive the ball straight, excel at hitting shots into greens, and have the ability to scramble around the greens.
Past Winners/Odds #RBCHeritage
-With this being a designated event and the best field to ever assemble here (44 of the top 50 OWGR), once again, expect a winner with a better-than-average score and shorter odds.
-2020 was the closest comparable field which had 37 of the top 50… pic.twitter.com/uLqdoqw2tD
— Ron Klos (@PGASplits101) April 10, 2023
The Venue (Harbour Town Golf Links)
This venue from a data perspective is as easy as any on tour to predict who will find success. As I mentioned above players have dominated who drive it straight, strike mid-irons at an elite level, and scramble around the greens. In the past that has opened it up to veterans but with much weaker fields than what will tee it up this week. With that said, I am going to lean heavily on course fit over recent form.
If you are looking for specific examples of players who have found success here. In the last decade, the players with the most strokes gained at Harbour are Patrick Cantlay, Matt Kuchar, Webb Simpson, Cam Davis, Russell Knox, Luke Donald, JT Poston, Kevin Streelman, Shane Lowry, and defending champion Jordan Spieth.
Course Comps
- Pete Dye Courses
- Pebble Beach
- Colonial CC
- Sea Island
- Waialae CC
Key Stats
- Strokes Gained: Around the greens/Scrambling
- Fairways Gained
- Strokes Gained: Approach/GIRs Gained
- Par 4 Scoring (400-450)
- Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
- Proximity from 125-200 yards
- Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (Courses less than 7200 yards)
My 2023 PGA DFS: RBC Heritage DraftKings Preview (Lineup)
Cameron Young ($9,600)
Cameron Young: 2nd at the Match Play and T-7 at the Masters since Paul Tesori picked up the bag. Tesori and Webb Simpson owned Harbour Town Golf Links (8 top-25s in 13 starts, 4 top-10s, a runner-up and a win).
Young finished T-3 here in 2022.
20/1 feels free. #RBCHeritage
— Riley (@rileyhamel_) April 11, 2023
It's only a matter of time before Cam Young is a winner on the PGA Tour. I think there's a good chance this week and that's why I am anchoring my lineup with Young. He finished solo third in his first appearance at this event last year.
He's coming off a great stretch including a runner-up at the WGC Match Play and a top-ten last week at Augusta. He's second on tour in proximity from 150-175 yards at twenty-two feet per approach. Young has an advantage this year that he did not last year at this event. He added Paul Tesori to his bag before the WGC and Tesori was on the bag for over a decade as Webb Simpson dominated the RBC Heritage.
Another option in this price range: Patrick Cantlay $10,300
Sam Burns ($8,700)
Official World Golf Rankings (@OWGRltd) after @TheMasters:
1. Jon Rahm
2. Scottie Scheffler
3. Rory McIlroy
4. Patrick Cantlay
5. Cameron Smith
6. Xander Schauffele
7. Max Homa
8. Will Zalatoris
9. Viktor Hovland
10. Sam Burns
11. Collin Morikawa
12. Justin Thomas— Jeff Eisenband (@JeffEisenband) April 10, 2023
Sam Burns moved into the top ten of the OWGR with his top 30 finish at The Masters. He has a previous top ten at this event and three top 20s at TPC Stadium Course (Great Course Comp). I've dubbed Burns as Bermuda Burns due to his ability to roll the rock on Bermuda greens. He is a huge value this week at his price on DK and at his current odds to win the event at 40-1.
Another option in this price range: Max Homa $9,100
Shane Lowry ($8,300)
Shane Lowry’s short game is something else 😍 🇮🇪 pic.twitter.com/F0QOdVCOAY
— Flushing It (@flushingitgolf) April 9, 2023
Lowry is arguably the best value this week on DraftKings. As you can see in the video above he is practically a wizard around the greens. He's top fifteen in the field in strokes gained tee to green, ball striking, and on approach. In his last four RBC Heritage's he has two top 3s and three top 10s and in his last five events on tour four top 20s.
Tommy Fleetwood ($8,100)
Augusta National is a special place, an atmosphere like no other! To all the staff, volunteers, security and members thank you so much for making it such an amazing experience every year. #themasters pic.twitter.com/PfMkxO3yuo
— Tommy Fleetwood (@TommyFleetwood1) April 10, 2023
Fleetwood will be in a majority of my DraftKings lineups this week for good reason. He finished T10 at this event last year. In his last five events, he's gaining two or more strokes on the field on approach and around the greens. After struggling to start the year he's in the top thirty in four of his last five events. I would be shocked if Fleetwood misses the cut this week or doesn't finish inside the top twenty.
Russell Henley ($7,800)
2023 Masters SG Data via @RickRunGood
OTT Leader-> Cam Young (+7.04)
APP Leader-> Brooks Koepka (+7.67)
ARG Leader-> Russell Henley (+5.56)
PUTT Leader-> Justin Rose (+5.56)Other Nuggets 🔽 pic.twitter.com/lOzSI0QvM9
— Matt Gannon (@matt_gannon_) April 10, 2023
Henley has back-to-back top 20s at The Players and The Masters. But I think he will be low-owned on DraftKings this week. Henley is top 25 in the field in strokes gained tee to green, ball striking, off the tee, and around the greens. Russell has missed the cut in this event three of the last four years but finished T-9 in 2021. That year he was coming off a top-ten finish the week before as well.
Another option in this price range: Erik Van Rooyen $7,300
JT Poston ($7,300)
🟩Outright Pick - RBC Heritage⬛️
🔥Course History: T3, MC, T8, T6
📈Last 3 starts: T34, T9, T10
🤷♂️Long term stats not bad, not good
💚Recent Form + Course History
🍼"Bet The Postman"💰JT Poston: 100-1 @BetRivers pic.twitter.com/VT2O6VhCME
— The Model Maniac (@TheModelManiac) April 10, 2023
As you can see by the tweet above I am sure Poston will be a trendy pick this week. At his current price on DraftKings and his betting odds, he should be. I especially love Poston on DK and for prop bets for a top ten and top twenty.
Another option in this price range: Ben Martin $7,100
Be sure to check out the rest of our golf content, including my show Two off the Tee on the Fantasy Six Pack YouTube Channel Tuesday night. Each week, my cohost Allen and I will break down the tournament for that week and give betting/DFS plays.
