Welcome to the 2023 PGA Tour: PGA Championship Tiered Bet Selections! DFS and golf gambling contributor Keith Flemming has been on fire lately, with back-to-back winners given out on the Inside Drive ESPN Radio Show!
You can catch him each Wednesday between 12-1 pm Central Time on 104.3 ESPN Northwest Radio.
This week looks to test both golfers and gamblers alike. I anticipate a tough, tough course so do not panic this week if your guy starts slow...."it ain't over until it's over." As always, in this article, I plan to give you what we call a " first look" at one golfer I like at their respective price range. So let's get to it!
(All odds pulled from DraftKings Sportsbook)
2023 PGA Tour: PGA Championship Tiered Bet Selections
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Tier Alpha
I came up with this tier specifically for majors. There's generally a really chalky set of golfers who you have to respect as potential winners. So rather than add them to my usual picks, I created a tier specifically for those few elite golfers with odds under 10:1.
Scottie Scheffler +700
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At this point in the PGA Tour, there have only been two golfers truly worthy of the "Alpha" label: Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler.
There's no need to overthink this as both golfers have virtually dominated PGA gambling at big events this year. I am rolling with Scottie Scheffler with the tiebreaker being Driver Accuracy for the 2023 PGA Championship. Scottie has shown to be slightly more accurate of the tee and I think that is going to make a big difference on such a difficult course this week. Scottie is also rated a better ball striker which I personally value when playing difficult courses such as Oak Hill.
2023 PGA Championship Tier One
I generally consider this the sweet spot range for most majors. You are just behind Tier Alpha and just before the range where guys are still trying to peak at the right time or bounce back. This range is filled with past winners and generally the most consistent performers at Major events. The typical price range for Tier One is +1100 through +2900.
Brooks Koepka +2200
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I will have to run this by the editors first but here's a LIV Golfer (gasp). I said this at the Masters and I will say it again, LIV Golfers should be respected at majors. Brooks is significantly lower odds this week than when he was fresh off a win heading into the Masters. He played well then and I expect him to play well again at the 2023 PGA Championship.
LIV is not as stat friendly as the PGA Tour so I am depending on Brooks's history at majors and the optics from this year's play that his knee is completely healthy. Prior to the knee issues, he won this event back to back and then came in second. The results from the Masters showed that LIV Golfers will compete despite the fear that the alternate tour is not as competitive in nature.
2023 PGA Championship Tier Two
This range is where I like to find guys that I think have a shot, but I hedge with a prop bet. They are either unproven winners of smaller events or past winners of majors/ recent events.
This range is where you find the best bang for your buck on past winners who just get up for Majors (i.e. Brooks Kopeka). The price range you're looking for here is +3000 through 5000.
Dustin Johnson +3500
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Good ol' DJ. It is only fitting that he would triple bogey the 10th hole last week, wind up in a playoff and the only people who got to see him win were the fans at the course. Seriously, how can you tell people to switch to the CW app to see the conclusion of such a dramatic round of golf? Who has the CW app!?
We know what we are getting with Dustin Johnson. A proven winner who strings together scoring in a big way, the best time to invest in DJ is after a strong performance like last week. The 2023 PGA Championship is expected to be a low-scoring affair so a guy who can string together some birdies and has a knack for scrambling in majors should be strongly considered. These are also the longest odds we have probably seen on Dustin in a very long time.
2023 PGA Championship Tier Three
This is the gambler's range right here. High risk, high reward! Here you can hedge with a prop bet or you can roll the dice on someone that you like because ...well you just like them. My most famous Tier Three win in a major was Gary Woodland back in 2019 at the US Open.
When it comes to golf gambling you can not be gun-shy. The price range here is slightly smaller but +5100 through +7900.
Rickie Fowler +6000
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You will not meet a more critical person of Rickie Fowler than yours truly. With that being said I want to give him the utmost credit for trending in the right direction at the right time. It is unfortunate that we did not get to see him at the Masters, but since the Players, Rickie has finished top 20 in every event he's participated in.
The consistency is why I feel like that very soon he's going to break through and hopefully it occurs at the 2023 PGA Championship. He has also been the most consistent golfer within this Tier Three price range for finishes. With a course that should challenge people this might be the perfect storm for Fowler to get back in the winner's circle.
A deep dive in the 2023 PGA stats show Rickie's total Strokes Gained is up significantly which is also a key stat in a course that will challenge in multiple ways.
2023 PGA Championship Long Shot Tier
This tier consists of anybody that you can throw $5 at and not be upset when it does not win. Yet you are hoping that this is the ticket that makes you a viral gambling sensation. Of all my 2023 PGA Championship Tiered Bet Selections, this is probably the most unique.
Keith Mitchell +18000
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Keith has been above tour average on everything except scrambling. He has made the cut in the majority of his events and for my long shot, I want a guy who's gonna have a chance for the entire tourney. Off the tee, Keith Mitchell is in the top 5 on tour and that could be the great equalizer for a tough course.
Besides his distance off the tee and accuracy with the driver in hand, Keith isn't giving back shots. That's going to be key for a long-odds guy, we can't have our long shot giving back shots. There are a ton of options at the long odd price tag so make sure you try to throw them in a top 20 prop as well!
Check out Keith's PGA DFS 2023 PGA Championship DraftKings Preview
