A quick recap of our first three majors saw me just miss on the Masters, nail the PGA Championship, and drop a dud in the U.S. Open. I am looking forward to trying to right the ship so let's get right into my 2023 PGA Tour: The Open Tiered Bets
I will go through each of my tiers and let you know whom I'd fading and who is worth a draw.
As always the odds here are from DraftKings Sportsbook. If you'd like last-minute information or need help rounding out your DFS bets, make sure you check out my friend Keith Flemming on the Inside Drive Wednesdays between 12- 1:00 pm Central Time. Keith also has his DFS plays here on Fantasy Six Pack and do not forget to check out our podcast Two Off The Tee!
Onto our 2023 PGA Tour: The Open Tiered Bets.
2023 PGA Tour: The Open Tiered Bets
Tier Alpha
Draw: Scottie Scheffler 7:1
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The only thing Rory does better than Scheffler right now is putt. I do not think that is enough to take Rory over Scottie this week.
Fade: Rory Mcllroy +650
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This is the price we used to see Rory when he was the heir to take over the Tiger Woods video game. His odds are cut in half, and he is not playing like the aforementioned Rory.
Despite my pessimism, congratulations are in order for making history last week.
The Open Tier One
Draw: Jon Rahm 13:1
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It has been a while since I have seen these odds on Rahm. Rahm has the length off the tee, the pedigree, and the skill to win this week in spectacular fashion.
Rahmbo is tops in Par 5 scoring (which should be huge), greens in regulation, and birdie or better conversions. Dare I say....undervalued?!
Fade: Patrick Cantlay 22:1
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Although he was T8 last year, I did not like what I saw from Cantlay at the Scottish Open. This course should play much tougher. I think Cantlay will also struggle a little with the lengthy approach shots this week.
The Open Tier Two
Draw:Â Jordan Spieth 30:1
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In the last five Opens Spieth has finished outside the top 10 once and won outright once. His track record at this event no matter the venue makes him a valuable play this week.
Fade: Justin Rose 45:1
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It was a close call between Rose and Fitzpatrick. Ultimately Rose lacks the necessary quality off the tee for me this week. He is a steady presence on tour still, but his best days may be behind him for major contention.
The Open Tier Three
Draw: Bryson Dechambeau 60:1
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Keith likes to refer to it as the LIV tax. With LIV guys performing well at higher than normal odds why not take a flyer on Dechambeau?
He still hits the ball a long ways and has the ability to take advantage of the Par 5s. Consider this a "horse for the course" play.
Fade: Sam Burns 60:1
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Burns is a great golfer but has seemed out of his element across the pond. In 12 majors Burns has cracked the top 20 one time. That was a T20 at last year's PGA Championship. His two worst finishes in a major? The Open. Even if he were to win at 60:1 I would not consider that fair value in this field or given current form/event history.
The Open Prop Bets
Keep in mind most sportsbooks use Dead Heat for prop bets. MGM is one of the few U.S. based sportsbooks that do not use Dead Heat for golf props. The difference in the payout can be significant.
Top 5: Jordan Spieth 6:1
Love to hedge a win bet with a top 5. I like the value on Spieth here but there are plenty of other options.
Top 10:Â Bryson Dechambeau 5:1
Searching for higher plays but opted to try a safer bet. Cracking a top 10 here should be doable for someone like Dechambeau who has length off the tee.
Top 20:Â Nicolai Hojgaard 4:1
Finished T6 last week. Has solid distance off the tee and may sneak in the top 20.
Be sure to check out the rest of our golf content, including my show Two off the Tee on the Fantasy Six Pack YouTube Channel Tuesday night.Â
