2023 PGA Tour: US Open Tiered Bet Selections

by Allen Sandidge
2023 PGA Tour: US Open Tiered Bet Selections

Welcome to the 2023 PGA Tour: US Open Tiered Bet Selections! Last week's Canadian Open saw the first time in almost two months that the winner was not part of the Two Off The Tee podcast. We were close with an 80:1 Aaron Rai but Nick Taylor would not be denied.

After watching a friend of mine lose a potential $1800 on that 72 ft putt, I want to remind everyone that is why we prop bet the guys we like. Do not take anything for granted in this volatile game we love! As always you can catch the host of the Two Off The Tee podcast, Keith Flemming, each Wednesday between 12-1 pm Central Time on 104.3 ESPN Northwest Radio.

I will also be adding something new to the tiered picks: draw and fade. The weather will be perfect for golf and the only true challenge will come from the course itself.  This is a major designed to make you toss your club or rip up your bet slip so be patient with your golfers.

(All odds pulled from DraftKings Sportsbook)

2023 PGA Tour: US Open Tiered Bet Selections

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Tier Alpha Draw and Fade

I came up with this tier specifically for majors. There's generally a really chalky set of golfers who you have to respect as potential winners.  So rather than add them to my usual picks, I created a tier specifically for those few elite golfers with odds under 10:1

Draw: Jon Rahm +900

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I have to say I'm a bit shocked to see Scottie as the odds-out favorite here. Rahm has been the more consistent golfer at the top lately. Also, there is a win at the Genesis Invitational this year which was originally designed by the same architect, George C Thomas Jr.  I know there have been redesigns but the essence of both courses are similar which should lead to some level of comfort. Rahm still remains one of the top golfers in the world and has great US Open history.

Fade: Scottie Scheffler +700

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I could be biting myself here because I have been a consistent Scheffler apologist, but I can not pick him over Rahm this week. With an average finish of 12th in the US Open, Scheffler is still a very good golfer.  But Rahm has a win as of two years ago and seems the more consistent competitor for an outright win. I used the finish at the Memorial as my tie-breaker here.  At 7:1 Scottie is grossly overvalued coming into the US Open.
2023 US Open Tier One Draw and Fade

I generally consider this the sweet spot range for most majors. You are just behind Tier Alpha and just before the range where guys are still trying to peak at the right time or bounce back. This range is filled with past winners and generally the most consistent performers at Major events. The typical price range for Tier One is +1100 through +2900.

Draw: Brooks Koepka +1100

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Bend the knee oddsmakers.  Brooksie is back and in a big way when it comes to majors.  Keep in mind he's only competed in three events The Masters (2nd), PGA Championship(1st), and now the US Open.  In those three events his odds have gone from 50:1, 22:1, now 11:1.  If only he had closed out the Masters I could have bankrolled my entire PGA season on a LIV golfer.  The irony....

Brooks's approach of "major hunting" has to be taken seriously.  So much so that I personally thought this week I would see him in the tier Alpha range.  In the event you find a golfer you like but think the price is too low consider live betting.  The best example I have of that is at the PGA Championship I had Brooks at 22:1.  When he fell down to +2 his odds shot up to 40:1 and because I liked him to win I doubled down.  The lead was not astronomical and Brooks rewarded me by shooting -4 twice then closing the tourney out.

You do not have to follow that same methodology with Brooks specifically but apply it to guys in this price range you like to win despite a slow start.  The history at majors speaks for itself and you almost have to bet Brooks to win at this point for fear of missing out.

Fade: Tyrell Hatton +2800

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I love Tyrell so this really pains me to put him on the fade list.  I am often quoted as saying "if you like Rahm, take Hatton" because there are similarities to their mentality and approach. But the history for Hatton recently at the US Open has not been good. On top of the two missed cuts in the last two US Opens, Hatton comes in from a blazing finish at a Canadian Open course that might as well have the difficulty set on "Beginner."

I think there is overvalue here at 28:1 on a golfer that should be closer to the 35-40 range. I would imagine people will take him based on his current form, but I suspect that we may see much of the same results as the previous two years.

2023 US Open Tier Two Draw and Fade

This range is where I like to find guys that I think have a shot, but I hedge with a prop bet. They are either unproven winners of smaller events or past winners of majors/ recent events.

This range is where you find the best bang for your buck on past winners who just get up for Majors (i.e. Brooks Kopeka). The price range you're looking for here is +3000 through 5000.

Draw: Collin Morikawa +3500

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Over at the Two Off The Tee headquarters, we have a saying about Morikawa, "if he's over 22:1 you have to take him." Look, I will be the first to tell you that Morikawa has not been at his best, specifically his putting. But there is something to be said about comfort and these west coast guys love coming home.

He still has an elite approach game, ball striking, and stands top 20 in strokes gained total. Personally, if the odds are high enough and the only blemish on a guy is his putting, I'm willing to take my chances. Morikawa plays well on the west coast and in his last two US Opens he's finished top 5. I absolutely love the value here on a golfer I think still has it (honorable mention to Tony Finau at +4000).

Fade: Tommy Fleetwood +4000

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What a brutal way to lose for Tommy last week. This fade is partially because I do not think he has the mental fortitude to brush last week off and because his off-the-tee numbers just do not get it done here. The North Course has been redesigned to make it more skill-based, but you still want above-average length off the tee. I do not mind Tommy as a prop bet in some spots or even a DFS guy, but I think we can count him out for a win contender this week.

2023 US Open Tier Three Draw and Fade

This is the gambler's range right here. High risk, high reward!  Here you can hedge with a prop bet or you can roll the dice on someone that you like because ...well you just like them. My most famous Tier Three win in a major was Gary Woodland back in 2019 at the US Open.

When it comes to golf gambling you can not be gun-shy. The price range here is slightly smaller but +5100 through +7900.  I extended it this week to include long shots

Draw: Gary Woodland +11000

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All the things I said about Collin Morikawa you can say about Gary Woodland.  If the putting is just slightly above average he could be in contention.  The ball striking, approach stats, and Tee to Green numbers all look great.  He also finished in the top 15 at the Genesis so I used that as a tiebreaker.  He's also a guy who has won the US Open and playing really well for the majority of this season.

Fade: Everyone between +6000 and +8000

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This is not the week I want to take chances on guys who have consistently missed the cut at the US Open.  I did a check on the USGA website and all the names between this price range have a really bad history at the event.  We know this course will be tough, and mentally challenging at worst, so for me this is not the time to steer too far away from history. I think you would be better suited to skip this price range and take your chances with long shots like Woodland.

2023 PGA Championship Prop Bets

Switching out the Longshot Tier for prop bets because they are more profitable during majors.

It is important to note that you must read the house rules for your sportsbook.  Many sportsbooks only do "dead heat" for prop bets. That means if your golfer ties for the finishing position, you lose value by splitting the winnings.  MGM Sportsbook is one of the few mainstream sportsbooks that do not follow this structure.  The odds will vary a little but winning a 5:1 is better than splitting a 6:1.  

Top 5: Collin Morikawa +600

Of my picks to win I think he has the most value at this spot based on the price.  You can use Brooks if you'd like, he's +240.

Top 10: Gary Woodland +800

Betting on it all coming together this week for the longshot Woodland. I would love for him to win outright at such a big price but having this nice little prop hit would be great too.

Top 20: Sam Bennett +900

The sneaky amateur T20 for me last week at 6:1 so I want to keep following him after his Masters performance as well. Could be the start of a nice little prop follow.

Check out Keith's PGA DFS 2023 PGA Championship  DraftKings Preview

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