2024 Best Ball Overrated Wide Receivers

by Justi Bruni
2024 Best Ball Overrated Wide Receivers

Excelling in Best Ball isn't just about hitting on late-round sleepers. It's also about avoiding players likely to bust and return negative ROI. The market overestimates the worth of certain players based on misleading projections or inflated hype. In this article, we delve into the intricacies of Best Ball ADP and uncover five wide receivers who are overrated in 2024.

These players are ensnared in the web of faulty projections or unwarranted market hype. Leaving savvy fantasy managers to tread cautiously past them in best-ball drafts. From seasoned veterans to highly touted rookies, we dissect the nuances of their ADP and offer insights into why their costs may be higher than necessary. Join us as we unravel the complexities of Best Ball  Wide Receiver ADP and shine a light on the receivers to Avoid or Approach with Caution in your upcoming drafts.

2024 Best Ball Overrated Wide Receivers

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Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers

WR46 / Avg ADP: 83.7 / 23' FPPG: 9.7

Christian Watson finds himself in a crowded Green Bay offense this year. While the Packers did spend a 22' 2nd round pick on Watson, his 2024 playing time will come down to year-long competitions between himself, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, Dual Running Backs, and Luke Musgrave. The Packer's offense excels because no one player commands the ball over another. Last year, Romeo Doubs (96) and Jayden Reed (94) led the team in targets. Watson only played nine games but was on pace for a similar volume. Had he stayed healthy, the season-long target share for each would have taken a hit.

Watson's best ball ADP is inflated based on his 23' per-game production through nine games played, parlayed with how well we've seen him perform in a good offense when the team had Aaron Rodgers. The key mistake there is that the offense is far more developed than in years past. The Packers boast depth at receiver and running back alike, which lies in the issue. Middled in the Packer's offense, Watson won't return the same season-long value as other receivers around his ADP, including two other Green Bay receivers.

Watson has the same ADP as Diontae Johnson, a receiver who has nearly doubled Watson's receiving production through the last two seasons. Jameson Williams, Courtland Sutton, Curtis Samuel, Romeo Doubs, Josh Palmer, Dontayvion Wicks, and Brandin Cooks are key players I easily take ahead of Watson. I'm willing to draft him anywhere 12+ spots North of his ADP.

There may be some underlying reasons to draft Watson based on his per-game acumen, but the crowded offense leads me to select the Packers WR, who is of the most market value at this time. In terms of draft exposure, I currently have 0% Watson and 14% Wicks through 50 BBMV Drafts. I suggest grabbing the guy who falls, including Jayden Reed, if you can get him after ADP.

Puka Nacua,Los Angeles Rams

WR6 / AVG ADP: 9.4 / 23' FPPG: 14.4

I understand; everyone loves Puka Nacua, but his current ADP cost is an overreaction to last year's production. Ranking him at WR6 quotes him for high-volume production that may not be there with a healthy Cooper Kupp this season. We're buying Puka at his ceiling in June, so I'm optimistic he will fall in cost in the upcoming months, or Cooper Kupp's cost will increase.

The ADP gap between Nacua and Kupp is roughly 30 picks or 2.5 draft rounds. That's a significant gap in the offense where we could see the top receivers have mirroring or similar production. There's no argument that Kupp and Puka can't coexist and thrive in the Los Angeles offense. However, it is very difficult for either of them to hit similar PPG production that Puka flashed in 2023. The situation puts either receiver in the WR1 conversation each week. However, we may have trouble guessing which player goes off each game.

I prefer Kupp at his ADP and consistently select A.J. Brown and Garrett Wilson ahead of Puka at ADP because I believe they are true No. 1 targets on their teams. If I'm lucky, Bijan Robinson or Breece Hall fall to me here, and I can easily take one of them at pick 9.

The truth is: Puka's cost may not go down that much, if at all. I strongly suggest staying off him if you only do a handful of Best Ball Mania drafts. If you're drafting 10, 25, or 50+ drafts, you can certainly feel free to diversify your exposure. Regardless, I expect Puka's PPG production to decline in 2024, which warrants a discount to his current ADP.

Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals

WR9 / AVG ADP: 13.6 / NFL Rookie

Marvin Harrison Jr.'s ADP has yet to fall despite our continuing distance from the NFL Draft. The bar is set very high for MHJ in year one. Grading him as WR9 is bold, but the public surprisingly buys him at his ADP. There are a handful of other players I prefer at his ADP. He is typically selected at the start of the second round.

At that cost, I would rather draft elite options like Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, Drake London, Chris Olave, and Davante Adams. I have seen this happen many times, which makes me believe that MHJ's true value is closer to a third —or fourth-round pick. You won't see him fall that far. When drafting MHJ early, I suggest adopting a WR-heavy approach; you can compensate for his misprice with other receivers who are mispriced or ranked too low.

If I get MHJ on my roster, I like to come back and pair him with WRs like Mike Evans, Cooper Kupp, Michael Pittman Jr., Christian Kirk, Hollywood Brown, and Calvin Ridley. It's hard for me to believe Harrison will debut in the NFL as a WR1 in fantasy. The situation isn't bad in Arizona, as he does have a path to being the top receiver on the team. However, this ADP cost isn't factoring Trey McBride with enough consideration.

In my opinion, McBride will be the top receiver in this offense and will be a significant roadblock for MHJ to finish inside the top 12 WRs in year 1. The two will work as an excellent duo. But don't be shocked by the surprising production from the remaining cast of receivers. Zay Jones is an established veteran, and both Greg Dortch and Michael Wilson have "Caught the Eye" of Kyler Murray in the past.

Tank Dell, Houston Texans

WR26 / AVG ADP: 40 / 23' FPPG: 12.8

I really like Tank Dell, but his fantasy value took a big hit after the Stefon Diggs acquisition. It's hard for me to value Dell as one of my top players drafted. Your top five best ball draft picks are top-value picks because numerous players with top roster spots are available through the first five rounds. Tank Dell's ADP drops him in the fourth round. This is another situation where I'd go with many other options. This includes players available through round 6.

Dell finished 2023 with 12.8 FPPG through 11 games played. The team added Stefon Diggs and RB Joe Mixon, both of which will steal consistent TD upside and high-scoring ceiling opportunities. Throwing in production spikes from Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz provides the potential for less production for Dell in 2024.

At his cost, I would rather have players like Travis Kelce, Travis Etienne, Trey McBride, Christian Kirk, Tee Higgins, Hollywood Brown, Isiah Pacheco, Mark Andrews, Josh Jacobs, and Calvin Ridley. That list doesn't even include another six QBs whose ADP spans the same list of players provided. This clearly highlights that Dell should fall immensely in your drafts to be of any real value to you.

Swapping ADP Values

If more simply put, why should we draft the Texans WR3 in round 4 when I can draft many other teams starting QB, WR1, RB1, or TE1? There's a clear number of players behind his ADP who will easily surpass his production this year. This is another situation where if I'm drafting a mispriced player in Dell, I want to pair him with steals I've made ahead of him in rounds 1-3 or with a few mispriced players in the upcoming rounds who are devalued in the best ball market.

Adding Dell as my fourth WR drafted would be ideal for his exposure and ADP. If you draft him as your second WR and you still need more value in rounds five and beyond, you might look at WRs like Calvin Ridley, Hollywood Brown, Chris Godwin, DeAndre Hopkins, Diontae Johnson, and Jameson Williams. Balancing the value in your picks is crucial when drafting a high volume of best ball teams.

These value swaps are crucial to identify. It's okay to take risks on poor market prices as long as you don't continue to do so throughout the draft. For example, you wouldn't want to pair Dell with players like Keenan Allen, Jayden Reed, Terry McLaurin, Rome Odunze, Brian Thomas, or Ladd McConkey because, like Dell, they all currently battle for production shares in their offenses.

Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears

WR38 / ADP AVG: 64.8 / NFL Rookie

Another rookie makes the list, showing us that the public has yet to fall off of the NFL draft hype. In best ball mania drafts we start our highest scoring 1QB - 2RB - 3WR - 1 TE - 1 Flex each week. This means we are essentially filling out our starting roster through rounds 1-8, whether we build up other positions or not. We can't expect players like Odunze, Dell,  or other WR3s to be of immense value in rounds 5-7. Odunze falls into the middle of round six, a cost far greater than his true value. I size him up closer to a round 8 pick.

The Bears added Keenan Allen and Deandre Swift in Free Agency and brought back DJ Moore and Cole Kmet. It's a crowded offense with a rookie quarterback throwing the ball. Even with the highest of expectations for Caleb Williams, it's hard to believe Odunze can earn a majority share of the offense without multiple injuries. Rendering his current ADP value as Overpriced.

In round 6, I'd rather have players like Kyle Pitts, George Kittle, Joe Mixon, DeAndre Hopkins, Diontae Johnson, Alvin Kamara, Kenneth Walker, David Montgomery, or Joe Burrow. I like many players behind him. So again, draft him in a pool of solid, valued receivers. That, or you can buy him when he falls 15-20+ spots. I've seen that happen many times and don't mind grabbing him as my fifth WR in round 8, starting with a 0-3-5-0 build.

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