2024 Fantasy Baseball ADP Battle: Arozarena vs Garcia

Randy Arozarena vs Adolis Garcia

by Corey Pieper
2024 Fantasy Baseball ADP Battle: Arozarena vs Garcia

The next 2024 Fantasy Baseball ADP battle occurs in the outfield as we look at Randy Arozarena vs Adolis Garcia.

Start by previewing the outfield position right here on Fantasy Six Pack. Most leagues are going to have at least 36 outfielders starting on rosters, and you may have as many as 60 starters. Speaking of different roster configurations, the website that is the easiest to customize your league with is Fantrax. It's the place to play your fantasy baseball leagues in 2024.

Today's battle has two high-end outfield options in the Tampa Bay Rays' Randy Arozarena and the Texas Rangers' Adolis Garcia. Both players have had very similar career arcs and now have very similar ADPs. Both offer across-the-board production, although Garcia's stolen base total slipped a bat last season. In exchange for the stolen bases, he finished with new career highs in runs, home runs, and RBI.

Most of the players selected in the top half of the first round will be outfielders. However, you can't stop there. Outfield thins out in a hurry especially in 15-team five-outfielder leagues. This outfield ADP battle will help you determine which player to select as what would likely be either your first or second outfielder.

2024 Fantasy Baseball ADP Battle: Arozarena vs Garcia

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Randy Arozarena, Tampa Bay Rays @copieps

FantasyPros ADP 48.0 overall 12th among outfielders
2023 Stats: 95 R, 23 HR, 83 RBI, 22 SB, .254 average
F6P Projection: 90 R, 25 HR, 78 RBI, 28 SB, .259 average

Randy Arozarena has had a difficult start to spring training. He began 0-17 with six strikeouts. If that happened in the middle of June it wouldn't be notable at all, but at this point, we have nothing else to compare it to so it seems awful. Don't overreact to such a small sample size. He has already shown signs of turning it around.

Three players have had at least 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases in each of the last three seasons. Philadelphia Phillies' shortstop Trea Turner and third baseman Cleveland Guardians' Jose Ramirez are two of those players. Each of them has an ADP in the top 15. The other player is Randy Arozarena who can be had roughly two rounds later. Why can he be had so much later than the rest of the 20/20 options?

It likely has something to do with the perceived ceiling of Arozarena. In the three full seasons of his career, he has always reached the 20-home run threshold, but he set his career high last season with only 23. Similarly, as stolen base totals exploded around the league last season, he fell back to 22 stolen bases. Additionally, his average has dropped in each of his three seasons. Last season, that meant a 254 average.

Drafting Arozarena in the early round feels like a very safe selection. You can bank on at least 80 runs, 20 home runs, 80 RBI, 20 SB, and a 255 average. But from what we have seen to this point, the floor and the ceiling projections for him are not that different. Regardless, that is a stat line that won't hurt you in any of the five rotisserie categories. Knowing that you aren't losing ground in any of the categories with your selection is very valuable in the early rounds.

Adolis Garcia, Texas Rangers @F6P_Joe

FantasyPros ADP 48.2 overall 13th among outfielders
2023 Stats: 108 R, 39 HR, 107 RBI, 9 SB, .245 average
F6P Projection: 89 R, 32 HR, 92 RBI, 15 SB, .243 average

Adolis Garcia is the new Javier Baez, well prime Baez. Both have a poor plate approach, striking out nearly 30% of the time, and chasing too many pitches out of the zone (although Baez was higher). However, none of that matters, at the end of the day for fantasy it just works.

How they get away with it, is when they do make contact it is very hard. Let's focus more on Garcia though. In 2023, he was in the top 10% of the league in EV, MaxEV, xSLG, and HardHit%. This led to a career-high in HR with 39. And because the Texas offense is so good, career highs in R and RBI too with 108 and 107.

His ADP still sits around 40 overall despite hitting those numbers. The batting average scares people away and I get it. He can't seem to get up to the .280-.290 levels that Baez could. This is due to him hitting more flyballs than Baez did. Baez was a master of hitting ground balls that were hit so hard they got through the infield for hits. So with more flyballs hit for Garcia, we are left with a batting average in the .245 range.

Another minor concern is Garcia is it appears from his stolen base numbers, that he slowing down. If you only look at sprint speed percentile rankings on BaseballSavant, it looks as if Garica is slowing down a lot as he dropped from 67% in 2022 to 50% in 2023. However, a closer look and that difference is .6 ft/sec. Yes, his steals dropped considerably from 25 to 9, but keep in mind he only had 10 attempts last season. This can be attributed to crowded basepaths with how good the Rangers offense played last season. I think the stolen base potential is still there.

I expect Garcia to safely hit 30 HR and get back up to 15 steals, all while nearing 100 R and RBI. Draft him with confidence.

Arozarena vs Garcia

Because he was a late bloomer, Garcia is older than you probably think. He is going to play this season as a 31-year-old. As someone older than that, I wouldn't describe that as old. But in baseball years, it's also possible that we may start seeing a decline. But other than speed, we haven't seen a decline yet. His power production as a 30-home run bat seems as secure as ever.

The question with Arozarena is whether or not he'll ever be able to reach that 30-home run threshold. His career to this point would indicate that it is unlikely. The difference is that he offers a safer stolen base floor than Garcia does. While Arozarena is fast, he has never been an efficient base stealer being caught at least 10 times in the last three seasons. There is no reason to think that the Rays will be any less aggressive with having him steal.

It's the five-category contributions that make Arozarena the choice for me. When it comes to selections in the first five rounds, I'm looking for players who either are contributors in every category or are possibly exceptional in the other categories. Garcia's strikeouts prevent him from having a plus average on top of the lesser stolen bases. It's enough of a difference to choose Arozarena for me.

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