2024 Fantasy Baseball ADP Battle: Bichette vs Abrams

by Ryan Kirksey
2024 Fantasy Baseball ADP Battle: Bichette vs Abrams

The Fantasy Six Pack 2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft coverage continues. In this post, we continue the ADP Battle series with a look at Bo Bichette vs CJ Abrams for the 2024 Fantasy Baseball season.

A great starting point to understand the shortstop position is to read Fantasy Six Pack's shortstop preview.

Our next ADP position battle pits the Toronto Blue Jays' Bo Bichette and the Washington Nationals CJ Abrams. These players each have similar ADPs per NFBC draft data. While they are not the first options selected at the position, both are potential five-category contributors that can anchor a team.

If you've chosen to grab a shortstop early, you're going to have to make a decision on which option you want to go with.

One situation where there is a clear choice is which website to use to play fantasy baseball. The answer has to be Fantrax. No matter how you want your league settings, it can be done on Fantrax.

Read on to see which shortstop option wins this 2024 ADP battle: Bo Bichette or CJ Abrams.

2024 Fantasy Baseball ADP Battle: Bichette vs Abrams

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Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays

NFBC ADP: 37.5, SS7
2023 Stats: 69 Runs, 20 HR, 72 RBI, 5 SB, .306
ATC Projection: 85 Runs, 22 HR, 83 RBI, 11 SB, .291

Should we call Bo Bichette's 2023 season a down year for fantasy? Yes, his home runs, runs, RBI, and steals all dropped for the third year in a row. But there are several indications he was very unlucky even with a .306 batting average.

Compared to Bichette's two elite years in 2021 and 2022, most of his underlying metrics repeated. His max exit velocity was the second-highest of his career, his barrel rate was a carbon copy of the past two years, and his hard hit rate (45%) almost matched his career average (46.9%). So what happened?

First, Bichette saw his fly ball rate go in the tank. That number dropped to just 26% in 2023, causing him to lose some extra-base hits. Combine that with a career-low 6.1 degree launch angle, and that's how you end up hitting the ball exceptionally hard, but not have the slugging percentage to show for it. Here is Bichette's rolling Hard Hit % and slugging percentage over the last three years, according to Fangraphs.

Notice slugging percentage in 2023 lagging behind hard hit rate when they almost perfectly tracked in 2022? That is something that should improve this year, which allow his counting stats to start heading back in a positive direction. I am right in line with the ATC projection for mid-20s in homers and around 10 steals with a very high batting average.

CJ Abrams, Washington Nationals

NFBC ADP: 40.2, SS8
2023 Stats: 83 Runs, 18, HR, 64 RBI, 47 SB, .245
ATC Projection: 83 Runs, 16 HR, 62 RBI, 41 SB, .253

Do you remember when CJ Abrams absolutely tore up Spring Training in 2022? He was with the San Diego Padres before they dealt him in the Juan Soto deal and he was murdering the ball that spring. In 37 at bats, he had 12 hits, two home runs, three steals, a .324 batting average, and a .514 slugging percentage. At age 21 then, he was already being crowned the next big thing, but then the regular season happened. In his first major league month (over 50 plate appearances), Abrams slashed .146/.255/.244 with one homer and one steal. He ended the season with a .246 batting average, two bombs, and just seven steals. Fantasy managers were left wondering where the phenom was they saw in spring.

Apparently, he was saving it all for 2023. Abrams was second among shortstops in steals and seventh in runs in 2023, and was able to get his slugging percentage over .400 thanks to 28 doubles, six triples, and 18 home runs. His .245 batting average wasn't anything to write home about. However, all projection systems see that improving to the .250-.260 range in 2024. Abrams was able to overcome some bad luck and saw his slugging percentage increase even as his BABIP dropped to a lowly .261 in the second half last year.

The Nationals' shortstop  is one of a handful of MLB players who can legitimately make it to 50 steals this year, a number that Bichette won't come close to touching. Abrams may have the fastest jump at the position among all player, as his 50-foot sprint speed was the best among shortstops in 2023. Abrams will once again be a player who can single-handedly win you a fantasy category in 2024 and deserves his huge jump in ADP from 2023 (average of 253 on FantasyPros).

Bichette vs. Abrams

For two players that have very similar ADPs and play the same position, these two players offer extremely different strengths for fantasy baseball. Your best bet is to assess where your roster strengths and weaknesses are when making your selection between the two. Bichette is going to give you more home runs, RBI, and average. Abrams is your man if you need runs or stolen bases. With both of these players taken in the first three rounds of drafts, it's likely you can use one of these shortstops to complement what strengths you have developed in the first two rounds.

In a vacuum, I would rather have the more complete player, which is Bo Bichette. However, C.J. Abrams is just 23 years old. There could very well be another level to his game in the years to come. Abrams is a candidate to lead the majors in steals this year, but Bo Bichette is the choice because he can contribute in every category.


Check out our 2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit!

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2 comments

Laura Lunsford March 15, 2024 - 3:55 pm

I think the ADP you have on Abrams is off. Did you mean 53?

Reply
Ryan Kirksey March 15, 2024 - 4:20 pm

I filtered the ADP from February 1 to today, which is exactly 40 right now. Moved up a lot since November

Reply

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