2024 Fantasy Baseball ADP Movers (3/21)

by Mike Sollicito
2024 Fantasy Baseball ADP Movers

Welcome back to the second and final installment of the 2024 Fantasy Baseball ADP Movers (3/21). Much like the first part, the second part will showcase ADPs from NFBC and compare two timeframes. The timeframe we are comparing this time is the March 5th and March 21th ADP.

With just a few days of Spring Training left, sample sizes are much larger and have been impacting ADPs more. Like the first edition, we've included a table showing any player who has moved +/- five spots in ADP and has been inside the top 300 during either period.

In this second edition, I highlight another seven players' whose ADPs in recent weeks have stuck out to me.

In the ADP Risers section, I dive into two starting pitchers - one young and one old - who have both been on the rise. I also touch on an up-and-coming star shortstop in the NL Central. Joe Bond contributed and discussed one popular prospect.

In the ADP Fallers section, two aging veterans - one a Free Agent - see their ADPs continue to fall, making them potential values. I also touch on an AL East OF who may have seen his best days ahead of him.

Without further ado, let's get into it!

2024 Fantasy Baseball ADP Movers

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ADP Risers

Wyatt Langford, OF, Texas Rangers

ADP Change: Up 37.63 spots

You can't have an ADP movers article without Wyatt Langford. He has flown up draft boards. This time around 37 spots and in the last time period 19. That is a total of about four rounds, to place him firmly inside the top 100 picks overall now. Oh and to top it all off, his minimum ADP is 19... 19!

He is mashing this spring, hitting six home runs and deserves all the hype and fanfare. Sarah Langs brings up a great point in his favor.

On the other side of this though, we should ask if we going too far with it. I get strange Jordan Walker vibes from all this. If you don't remember last year, Walker was skyrocketing up draft boards and he didn't exactly return that value. Yes, the results are there this Spring for Walker. He has crushed at every minor league level, but isn't this what he should be doing? Consider this tweet from Mike Kurland.

Look I think he will be good this season, but I'm not likely to get him any of my drafts because I'm sure there is somebody willing to reach for him before me (see ADP of 19). If he were to actually fall somewhere around the 100 range in my drafts I would consider it, but that does not seem likely to happen at this point. There is also the chance that he does not break camp with the team, just one more reason not to blow a top 4-5 round pick on him.

Chris Sale, SP, Atlanta Braves

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ADP Change: Up 14.63 spots

Well, well, well, welcome back Mr. Sale. After pitching a max of 42.2 innings in the last few seasons, Sale more than doubled that total with 102.2 last year. While that's all good and dandy, injuries once again found Sale. He missed time a chunk of time with a shoulder injury in 2023.

Now with the Braves following an offseason trade, Sale finds his ADP rising recently. A contributing factor is that he looks healthy heading into the season, a great sign. Sale holds a 3.86 ERA over 11.2 innings with 17 strikeouts. The strikeouts are what stand out.

During his most dominant times, Sale was a masterful strikeout artist. Now 34 years old and seemingly healthy, the biggest question is "Should I draft him?"

My simple answer to that is no. We have seen Sale fall victim to injuries time and time again, and as he gets older one can only imagine the wear and tear continues. Sale's prime was awesome to watch, but I think it is well behind him.

At his current ADP, it may be worth exploring other SP options like Michael King, Bailey Ober, and others who have much more upside.

Oneil Cruz, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates

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ADP Change: Up 8.61 spots

Oneil Cruz is one of the most fun players to watch in baseball. His combination of speed, power, and hard throws over the infield is quite a sight. He unfortunately lost all of last year with an ankle injury, but now is fully healthy heading into the year.

He has had a sizzling Spring Training, including seven HRs across 33 ABs. His power is well on display, and despite only having one SB thus far, I expect him to showcase that speed during the season. Cruz has an easy 20/20 ability with room for more.

The biggest question comes with his eye at the plate, but he has been able to cut down the strikeouts while increasing walks. He currently has a 7:8 BB:K ratio during Spring Training. If he can carry over those early gains, he has potential five-category upside and could be a steal.

Going roughly top-50 in drafts, Cruz is a great option at SS or MI if you miss out on one of the top ones. Go grab him, the upside is there for him to be an absolute stud and you don't want to miss out.

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Tarik Skubal, SP, Detroit Tigers

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ADP Change: Up 5.53 spots

I love me some Tarik Skubal. Draft him everywhere and twice on Sunday.  Skubal has the making of an absolute ace and has done nothing but show that upside since returning from Tommy John surgery last season. Over 80.1 innings, Skubal registered a 2.80 ERA with 102 strikeouts. He walked only 14.

Skubal gave glimpses of the upside last year and he is ready to take off again this year. Of five pitches, he had three with over a 25% whiff percentage. Anyone who can throw multiple pitches, especially with a whiff percentage that high, is someone who can get batters out even when he isn't 'on' that day.

With the mix of his fastball and secondary offerings highlighted by a devastating changeup and nasty knuckle curve, Skubal's arsenal is deep enough for him to mix around throughout the game, giving him more of a chance to get through the lineup three times.

So far this Spring, he has looked just as dominant as expected. He is easily able to hold down your SP1 spot in drafts and is someone to be actively targeting.

I am not sure there is a price right now I would not take him at, he is that good. Grab him where you can and enjoy the ride. This guy is a stud.

ADP Fallers

Cedric Mullins, OF, Baltimore Orioles

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ADP Change: Down 9.11 spots

The Baltimore Orioles are loaded all over. From the major leagues to the minor leagues, they have a ton of talent. Cedric Mullins is currently penciled into their starting center field spot, but does his ADP warrant being drafted?

The case can be made to both pass on and draft Mullins. On one hand, Mullins looks like a potential bounce-back candidate going top-150 in drafts. He will also be batting in the loaded Orioles lineup and represents stolen base upside in the later rounds.

Mullins also was not very good last year when healthy, and he has not looked great this Spring. Now, he does seem fully healthy and over the issues he dealt with last season. But if he does struggle, will the Orioles be more willing to call up a prospect and give them playing time or at the very least a platoon role with Mullins?

Either situation could play out which is why he is being drafted at his current price. For me, he is a pass. His average, OBP, and OPS have decreased in the last three seasons. While last year can be attributed to injuries, other than speed I am not sure he moves the needle much for me.

OFs like Riley Greene, Jorge Soler, and James Outman possess far more upside and are going in a similar range as Mullins.

Jordan Montgomery, SP, FA

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ADP Change: Down 16.19 spots

Unlike Blake Snell, I would draft Jordan Montgomery. Blake Snell signed with the San Francisco Giants on March 18th, and I anticipate Montgomery to sign soon as well. Also unlike Snell, I think Montgomery's 2023 season is repeatable.

Montgomery's 2023 included having three pitches with over a 30% whiff percentage. He was also able to limit the walks. While he has not pitched this Spring, I anticipate him ramping up sooner than later once he signs and think he could return solid value.

I would take Montgomery over multiple pitchers going around his ADP, including names like Eduardo Rodriguez, Jose Berrios, and others. Montgomery is on the safer side with pitchers, as he generates weaker contact and limits the free passes.

While he is still unsigned, he will likely sign sooner rather than later now that Snell has signed. Montgomery possesses the type of floor that is worth grabbing in this area among a bunch of question marks like Justin Verlander, Walker Buehler, and more.

If Montgomery continues to drop, I will be drafting a lot of him on my teams, with the assumption that he gets signed.

Max Muncy, 3B, Los Angeles Dodgers

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ADP Change: Down 7.81 spots

Max Muncy has seen his ADP decrease over the last few weeks, and I do not quite understand why. Sure, he is getting older and has been an injury risk in recent years, but you know what you're getting. Muncy has consistently been a low-average, high-power player. He is also hitting in a loaded Dodgers lineup.

As is the case most years, 3B is pretty top-heavy. Muncy is a great way to patch up some corner infield help. Pencil him in to likely miss time at some point, but when healthy you know exactly what you're getting.

In only 482 plate appearances last year, Muncy put up a combined 201 Runs + RBIs on 36 HRs. Even at age 33, he is as dependable as ever in fantasy.

Grab him as his ADP continues to fall, and reap the benefits of Muncy's easy 30-HR power. Couple that with healthy counting stats, and he's one of the safer guys you could draft in the later rounds.

Be sure to keep an eye out for all of the in-season content from Fantasy Six Pack that's just around the corner! In the meantime, feel free to check out the rest of F6P Fantasy Baseball Draft coverage!

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