2024 Fantasy Baseball ADP Movers (3/7)

by Mike Sollicito
2024 Fantasy Baseball ADP Movers

Welcome to the first edition of the 2024 Fantasy Baseball ADP Movers (3/7). In this series, we will showcase ADPs from NFBC and compare two timeframes. This first time around the timeframes are players' ADP from February 5th to February 21st and February 22nd to March 6th.

With Spring Training beginning on February 22nd, these two timeframes should show us how much a player's ADP has changed over the first two weeks of Spring Training. We've also included a table showing any player who has moved +/- five spots in ADP and has been inside the top 300 during either period of time.

I highlighted six players overall whose ADP has changed during the two timeframes - likely as a result of their performance (or lack thereof) in Spring Training.

In the ADP Risers section, two young up-and-coming players are showcased alongside an aging vet who could provide value. One is vying for a spot on the Opening Day roster, while the second is looking to carry over his gains from the 2023 second half.

In the ADP Fallers section, three players who have been in the news for injuries are highlighted. Will two youngsters be ready for Opening Day? Will a burgeoning ace with an injury pay off in the long run?

Now, let's dive in!

2024 Fantasy Baseball ADP Movers

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ADP Risers

Cole Ragans, SP, Kansas City Royals

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ADP Change:  Up 12.62 spots

What a turnaround it has been for Cole Ragans. After being shipped off from the Texas Rangers to the Kansas City Royals at the trade deadline for Aroldis Chapman, Ragans has been a revelation. He finished last year on an absolute heater, hinting at a potential sleeper heading into the 2024 season.

Ragans has zoomed right past the sleeper section and has been rapidly rising through the ranks. Up roughly 13 spots since the beginning of Spring Training, Ragans will surely see his ADP continue to rise well into the top 100. So far this Spring, he has pitched five scoreless innings accompanied by eight innings and one walk.

With an upper 90s fastball and multiple secondary pitches, I am buying all the Ragans I can this draft season. He gives me Corbin +Burnes vibes from a few years back. Burnes wasn't always the ace he is today, but ended up there after rediscovering his control and feel for pitches. Ragans looks to be doing just that, and I will not be missing out on him.

Jackson Holliday, 2B/SS, Baltimore Orioles

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ADP Change: Up 9.56 spots

Jackson Holliday is universally regarded as one of the best prospects in all of baseball. After tearing through the Minor Leagues last year, Holliday has wasted no time showcasing that this Spring.

While it was reported that Holliday has a true 50/50 shot of making the Opening Day roster, I anticipate him to be up relatively early anyway. The .333 average so far in Spring Training looks nice, but his eight strikeouts may cause the Orioles to let him get some extra seasoning in the minors.

The kid has impacted the ball hard this spring and he will no doubt be a difference-maker at the MLB level, potentially as soon as this year. Take advantage of the ADP he has now, even with it raising 10 spots since the start of Spring Training. His upside is immense and well worth the risk of him not making the roster. If it does come out that he will be making the team, that ADP will rise to a much higher spot.

Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins

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ADP Change: Up 26.35 spots

Well, hello there old friend. Oh Byron Buxton, just when I thought I quit you, you pulled me right back in. After undergoing knee surgery, Buxton has reportedly been feeling a lot healthier this spring. It is early in the season and he has been on the IL multiple times throughout the last few years, but his ADP looks juicy given the upside he possesses.

The Twins are looking to play Buxton at CF this year now that he is healthy. While his UTIL-only position may be a hindrance for some drafters, he should gain OF eligibility sooner rather than later. With his knee reportedly feeling better, Buxton mentioned wanting to steal more this year. He has not had over nine steals since 2019 when he had 14.

If Buxton can add some speed to the prodigal power we know he has, he could be a draft-day steal. He will be hitting in a prime position in an underrated Twins lineup - the only thing in his way is health. Positive reports have swayed me to drafting Buxton more often than not. The price right now is worth the risk and then some.

You don't need to hit on every pick you make in the later rounds, but Buxton could be just the type of home run you need. Grab him at his current ADP before it rises to heights where the risk outweighs the reward.

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ADP Fallers

Matt McLain, 2B/SS, Cincinnati Reds

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ADP Change: Down 8.74 spots

A recurring oblique issue has caused Matt McLain's ADP to fall since the start of Spring Training. While injuries that recur are never good, this does not seem to be an overly serious issue.

So much so, that it has been reported that McLain could make his spring debut at some point this week. McLain's power and speed combo as well as being part of a great, young, Reds core, make him someone I am coveting in every draft.

Once healthy, his ADP probably climb back to where it was originally, but even at that price, I would still draft him. The Reds have a pretty underrated lineup this year, and I expect a lot of their players to be steals come draft time. Offering the potential for 20 HRs and 20 SBs, McLain could offer five-category upside in later rounds.

However, it may be hard for him to repeat the .290 average he put up last year after striking out 28.5% of the time. If he can make improvements on the strikeout rate, his high average could continue over into this year. Ultimately, McLain should offer elite numbers in four categories, with the potential for five. At that cost, who isn't in?

I am jumping on McLain's ADP wherever I can, despite the issue risk, and you should be too. The upside coupled with positional eligibility is well worth it.

Blake Snell, SP, FA

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ADP Change: Down 3.57 spots

Blake Snell has yet to sign with a team, and that's not something I like. While I expect him to sign with a team before the season begins, he is someone I am avoiding at almost all costs.

Yes, he just won the NL Cy Young Award, but his not having pitched against major league competition with less than three weeks before the season starts does scare me. We have seen in the past how signing late can ultimately affect a pitcher, and that's something I'm ultimately not taking the risk on.

On top of not having signed yet, his walk rate was worrisome last year. He had a 13% walk rate last season, and while he was able to hold those batters on with multiple pitches that generated whiffs, I do anticipate regression wherever he signs.

The ADP has only fluctuated a little, but even if it continues to drop I will not be drafting him. There are much better players, that are already on rosters readily available as a borderline top-75 pick.

Kodai Senga, SP, New York Mets

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ADP Change: Down 110.27 spots

Kodai Senga was originally to be penciled in as a top-75 pick in fantasy drafts and the ace for the New York Mets. Kodai Senga is currently dealing with a shoulder strain and has been shut down from throwing thus far this spring. Shoulder issues for a pitcher are not a great sign.

As a result, Senga is someone I will be avoiding at all costs in drafts no matter how far he continues to drop. While he is projected to begin throwing in mid-March, he will still miss the beginning of the season. Although there is no timeline as of yet and things could go either way, shoulder and arm issues can be recurring for a pitcher. These types of issues more often than not result in IL time.

Senga is an amazing pitcher and I do not fault anyone who wants to draft him at his currently deflated ADP. He was magnificent last year and showcased his ability to be an ace. I, however, will not be taking that risk. These types of injuries show up time and time again and I am not willing to risk that.

I hope for a quick and healthy rehab for Senga, as his ghost fork is one of the most electric pitches in all of baseball and I look forward to seeing it again soon. I would take a stab at someone else at this ADP if you can.

Keep an eye out for the next edition of 2024 Fantasy Baseball ADP Movers! In the meantime, feel free to check out the rest of F6P Fantasy Baseball Draft coverage!

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