2024 MLB Bold Predictions

by Mark Strausberg
2024 MLB Bold Predictions

So a missive was sent out to the F6P staff asking them for their [dim the lights, play the dramatic music, and get the voiceover guy ready] 2024 MLB Bold Predictions. Some of these have direct Fantasy Baseball implications, but not all of them.

I got more responses than I had originally expected. It was a bit of a tight window and the NCAA tourney had already started. But just as our projections are award-winning, the F6P crew stepped up and a tidal wave of responses arrived.

One of those was of course last year's author of this article, Josh Stevens. Josh asked to "humbly brag for a second" and pointed out that he, "wrote about an Acuńa 40/40 season and becoming the number 1 overall player" as well as "Corey Seager being the most productive infielder". Pretty good calls there sir!

I will say that I too bet on Acuna having a 40/40 season, so I'm not super impressed, but it was still a good call.

Let's see if this year's predictions go as well as last year's. Mock us or applaud us half a year from now, but here are the F6P 2024 Fantasy Baseball Bold Predictions.

2024 MLB Bold Predictions

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The New York Yankees trade Juan Soto at the trade deadline

By: Connor Thomure

This bold prediction was the very first response I got courtesy of Connor. And I have to say, that's a pretty bold prediction. My reasoning is that we know how often the Yankees are sellers come trade deadline time. Yes, last year was a disappointing season for the Yanks and their fans. They finished just two games over .500 and a surprising fourth in the very competitive AL East.

But the last time the Yankees finished 4th in the division was in 2016. They bounced back the following year to go 91-71 and ended up in losing in the ALCS. The last time the Yankees went back-to-back not finishing first or second in the division was the Bush Administration. That was 1992 and I'm talking about the first President Bush, as in Barbara's husband, not her son.

The point is, I have a hard time seeing the Yankees trading Soto at the deadline. But if Connor is right, you might want to push Soto a little further down your draft boards. But Connor had another bold prediction up his sleeve as well.

By this point next season we’ll be saying the Nationals have one of the best outfields for Fantasy

By: Connor Thomure

This is a second of Connor's prediction. And while I don't think anyone would even argue right now that the Nationals have even one of the second-best outfields in the NL East let alone the league, this one I can see happening. Lane Thomas had a breakout year last year, rewarding his fantasy owners with 28 HRs and 20 SBs.

Jacob Young made his debut the last week of August and showed off his wheels. Young was the only player during the 2023 season to steal 13 bases in less than 50 games. Young could easily steal 30+ this season. At least to start this season, Young and Thomas will be joined by Stone Garrett to start the season, whom might not even be who Connor had in mind.

But what I like about Stone Garrett is that his splits versus lefties and righties is not as dramatic as one might expect from a player with only 310 major league ABs. Yet even more attractive than his vLH/vRH splits are Stone's pre and post All-Star splits. Garrett slashed .288/.375/.513 after the break. If he can build on that this season, Connor could very well be right on that prediction.

Our man CK on the other hand was much more direct with his prediction:

Jarren Duran will hit 20 HR and steal 40 bases; and Seiya Suzuki hits 40 home runs

By: Corey Pieper

Let's start with Duran. He's never hit more than eight HRs in a season, so 20 is a bit of a leap. However, Duran also has yet to have even 340 ABs in a season. He should start nearly every day for Boston this season and if he sees 600 ABs, 20 HRs is not that much of a stretch.

I personally think he falls a little short of that, but 15 HRs this season is certainly foreseeable. And given that Duran had 24 SBs last season, I agree with CK about him swiping 40. Just not sure how bold of a prediction that is.

Seiya Suzuki hitting 40 dingers however is a bold prediction. In Suzuki's two years and 912 ABs, he only has 34 HRs. And CK thinks he is going to do in one season what he couldn't do in two combined? I don't see it happening.

However, Suzuki did raise his ISO nearly 30 points last season versus 2022 and his HardH% seven percentage points as well. If he raises his ISO 30 points and and his HardH% another seven percentage points again this coming season, 40 dingers will certainly be possible.

30 HR and 25 SB for Gleyber Torres

By: Ryan Kirksey.

Predicting 30 HR from Torres is far from a bold prediction. Torres hit 25 last year. If his OPS rises as it has each of the last three years, and with just a tiny bit more luck (he had a .288 BABIP average last year) this season, 30 is very likely.

Meanwhile, the 25 stolen bases is definitely bold given that his three-year average is a little over a dozen swipes. I can see a bump, but I would put his max around 20. Last year Torres didn't even attempt 20 stolen bases. He stole 13 bases, but was also caught stealing six times. That's not a very good ratio. I don't see him getting the green light even 25 times this season and even if he gets it 30 times, I am sure he gets caught at least six times again.

Zach Gelof goes 30/30 and Ceddanne Rafaela wins AL ROY

By: Taylor Cochran

Gelof made his first appearance in the majors last season on July 14th and had a pretty decent half season, hitting .267 in 270 ABs with 14 dingers and 14 swipes. Should he see 600 ABs, I agree with Taylor and believe that Gelof joins the 30/30 club. But therein lies the rub. I'm not sure he sees even 550 ABs. 20/20 is likely, but 30/30 is just too optimistic in my humble opinion, especially given his home ballpark.

Now, as far as Ceddanne Rafaela winning AL ROY, that is certainly a bold prediction. Depending on where you look, the odds vary from about +4000 to about +6000 of him winning. But this is what bold predictions are all about!

He is having a killer spring. Rafaela has a .907 OPS and a .298 ISO so far. Let's simply say that's not sustainable. Even if he finishes spring training with those kind of numbers, we all know how directly transferrable spring numbers are to the regular season. Some of the more optimistic projections I see for Rafaela have him approaching 20/20 and hitting .265.

Those are much more realistic and I see him finishing in that neighborhood, maybe even a little better. But that's a little short of most of ROY seasons. Still, you have to like Taylor's bold predictions. Of course, nothing compares to the creativity of our JP Daeman.

DapScouts's Prediction

This was too long to make a heading, but here is what one of F6P's more, um...extroverted staff members predicted: "Wyatt Langford does not make the team out of Spring Training. Gets called up as soon as the Rangers gain their extra year of control. Then goes on to bat below 215 with only 5 extra base hits before being sent back down after a month. He destroys AAA then comes back after the All Star Break to hit 20 HRs and bat 275+."  

So first off, that is wayyyyy too specific to happen exactly like that. So simply put, that doesn't happen. But while JP's prediction takes a while to digest and process, the directional trend is not only realistic, but far from unique. As our own Chad Simpson said when he heard about Dap's prediction, "Isn't that the Jordan Walker movie but with an early twist?"

Undeterred, JP fired back "Like an M Night Shyamalan movie it seems familiar until THE TWIST". Riiiight. I'll let you make of this one as you wish. Let's just move on and finish with Mr. "I called Acuna's big season", Josh Stevens.

Josh Stevens Predictions

Josh had three 2024 Fantasy Baseball Bold Predictions:

  1. Brandon Marsh/Riley Greene become a top 15 outfielder
  2. Triston Casas 25 homers/30 doubles/ over .400 OBP
  3. Michael Busch top 10 first baseman

I wouldn't bet the house on any of these happening. But I sure wouldn't bet the house on any of these NOT happening either. I give Josh credit, these are perfect bold predictions. They are not likely to happen. But like last year's predictions, I agree with Josh as they are just viable enough that they could happen.

Got your own 2024 Fantasy Baseball Bold Predictions for us? Drop them in the comments section down below!


Be sure to check out more excellent Fantasy Baseball content from the F6P team!

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