2024 NFL Conference Championship Best Bets

by Michael Tomlin
2024 Conference Championship Best Bets

It happens to every legitimate better, and I am on a bit of a cold streak entering the 2024 NFL Conference Championship best bets.

I had another down week losing a few units for the second week in a row the first time this season. A missed field goal and a failed two-point conversion went against me though, otherwise it was profitable.

Nevertheless, you need some coin flips to go your way and they had been more often than not this year. This week, I think we have two games that are far from coin flips.

Overall, my combined best bets are up 38.5 units. That means if you bet $100 on every pick then you would already be up $3,850 this year.

As always, a simple disclaimer: sports betting should be entertainment. The 2024 NFL Conference Championship Best Bets will not make you rich. Anyone with picks saying they can make you rich is a liar and I would bet against them.

The 2024 NFL Conference Championship Best Bets will be about having fun wagering on sports while trying to stay even or break a small profit.

All of the information for the 2024 NFL Conference Championship Best Bets is up to date as of January 25th, 2024.

Tomlin’s Tips: 2024 NFL Conference Championship Best Bets

Best NFL Bets

Each week I will play my five best bets for the NFL weekend. This is similar to the most famous handicapping content in the world, The Las Vegas Supercontest, where the winner gets over a million bucks.

The Tomlin Lock of the Week (0-1 Last Week, 12-7-1 season, +8.6 Units)

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Baltimore Ravens -3 vs. Kansas City Chiefs

I am going back to the well fading the Chiefs one more time. While this may seem foolish, hear me out.

Last week, Buffalo put together the perfect blueprint to stop Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. The Bills took what they were given on offense, most importantly timewise. Buffalo had several long, sustained drives that drained the clock and wore down the Chiefs’ defense.

This led to the Chiefs having just six full drives and 47 total plays. The Bills ran 78 plays on the night. So, what went wrong?

The most glaring problem was the injuries to Buffalo’s defense. Buffalo was down more than half of their defensive starters, including a green-dot signal caller that was on the street just a couple of weeks ago. This allowed Kansas City to gain nearly eight yards per play and convert half of their Red Zone trips.

That will not happen with Baltimore this week. The Ravens’ defense is one of the best statistical units of this century. They are mostly healthy and will not give up such big chunks ever play. Most importantly, the Ravens were the second-best team in the league in stopping touchdowns in the Red Zone. The Chiefs' offense was ranked 17th in that category.

On offense, Baltimore is more equipped to employ the Bills’ gameplan with a much better rushing quarterback and a stable of capable running backs.

I see Baltimore sustaining long, successful drives with Lamar Jackson making his mark as an elite quarterback in the playoffs.

Other Best NFL Bets (1-2 last week, 40-38-2 season, -1.8 Units)

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San Francisco 49ers -7 vs. Detroit Lions

The 49ers got their wakeup call last week. In all likelihood, San Francisco should have lost that game. Jordan Love just made the worst mistakes at the worst time to hand the 49ers a win.

Last week had many factors pointing to the letdown spot for San Francisco. There is the rust angle off of having the bye week. There is also the overlook angle because they were playing the lowly seventh seed. Most importantly though, was the weather.

It was a torrential downpour and it was obviously affecting Brock Purdy. It was the worst he had looked as a pro. Well guess what: the weather in Santa Clara Sunday is a high of 74 degrees and no wind or rain.

Jared Goff outside on the road is just a different and worse quarterback. Since coming to Detroit, Goff is averaging just 233 yards and less a touchdown per game outside on an 86.2 quarterback rating with 6.7 yards per attempt. On the season, Goff averaged almost 270 yards and nearly two touchdowns per game on a 98.0 quarterback rating with 7.6 yards per attempt.

Those stats all include bad defenses as well. Now he will be facing one of the best defenses in the league. San Francisco will harass Goff all night and Purdy will look like the guy that has been dang near unbeatable.

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