2024 NFL Conference Championship Prop Bets

by DFSx42
2024 NFL Conference Championship Prop Bets

Welcome to the 2024 NFL Conference Championship Prop Bets!

The TL:DR disclaimer is that while I am a professional gambler, <1% of that income comes from football prop betting.

  • Many of these lines won't be available to everyone, do not bet a lesser line. I'm not originating, I'm finding bad lines.
  • Always do your homework and ensure market dynamics haven't changed - a lot can happen in the time between me writing this and you reading it. If I like -120 but you see -110 everywhere, then clearly something has happened where now not even -110 is good.
  • I'm not saying where the bad lines are to avoid conflict of interest & ensure you line shop.

You can also follow me on Twitter @DFSx42 for last-minute additions as I'll tweet out any updates. Sometimes there's some late value (a bunch of game props aren't released until the day of the event) before kickoff that I only have time to tweet.

Playoffs: 40-38 +6.6465u
Regular Season: 275-226 +31.385

Official Record: 315-244 +38.0315
Unofficial Bonus Bets for Degens: 103-104 -.688u (these all suck so 0.1u each)

Recap

We lost about a unit overall in a fairly forgettable showing. But that's just how this goes sometimes and it's always nice when your losing weeks are only 1u losses.

However, if you were betting the degen stuff, which I've repeatedly said never to do, you would have gotten absolutely walloped.  We lost a full unit on those, which given that we're flat betting .1 units on them, means we would have lost 10 units had we been treating them like regular wagers.

I am not at all surprised that after being a winning system all year they finally collapsed. Nor do I think it was the product of bad luck. I actually think we were running above expectation in those earlier and now finally experiencing the negative variance that those bets missed throughout the regular season.

I'm still going to be posting them, and you should still not be betting them. Remember, those are mostly there if you're just going to bet people you like anyway and to teach a lesson that tiny edge wagers are usually losing propositions.

Anyway, I hope to rebound a bit this weekend. And I'm salivating over what will be on offer for the Superbowl.

And just a reminder. Since we expect more interest/volume because it's the playoffs, we're going to be posting this a bit earlier than usual. This means three things:

  1. There won't be much to bet early on because our system relies heavily on a mature market, as a result, I'm going to be including some touchdown props this week. I usually avoid these because they are not very efficient compared to other props but there's not much available at this stage of the week so will be expanding the offerings.
  2. I'll be updating this throughout the week so come back periodically looking for updates (you can also follow me on twitter as I'll send out a tweet each time I add some wagers)
  3. If lines were hard to catch in time previously, they'll be harder to get now. The few lines we're putting out initially will probably be bet into destruction long before kickoff - so just a gentle reminder to review the disclaimer at the top and do not tail these if the lines aren't there and come back regularly for updates.

I'll do my best to update this, mark the new bets to make them easy to find, and make a note when a bet that I put up earlier in the week is no longer a good bet (we'll keep it for record-keeping but if you haven't bet it already, then don't bet it now).

Think of prop betting as a banana stand and don't try to force things where you can burn it all down. Let the money come to you.

2024 NFL Conference Championship Prop Bets

Continue the Betting discussion on Discord and discuss other betting lines with F6P Analysts!

At the time of writing this, I have no positions on any of these sides and totals. That will likely change if I find value as we go along.

UPDATE: We had a lot of stuff here booked early in the week. As the market is always adjusting, if the position has lost an edge then I've updated the bet with VALUE LOST to let you know not to bet it if you already haven't. Likewise, the stuff that's improved will have VALUE GAINED in front of it, which means you can upgrade it to a larger unit size if it's still available (but 99% of the time it won't be).

Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens

This one opened at BAL -1.5 and 44.5 but almost immediately crossed the key number of -3 and kept on plowing along. It currently stands at -4 and 44/44.5 and I don't expect much more movement but hey, it's still early and limits are not yet opened up.

Baltimore has looked really good recently whereas KC feels ordinary. I have no positions on this game but lean BAL and kind of like the over.

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