2024 NFL Divisional Round Football Prop Bets

by DFSx42
2024 NFL Divisional Round Football Prop Bets

Welcome to the 2024 NFL Divisional Round Football Prop Bets!

The TL:DR disclaimer is that while I am a professional gambler, <1% of that income comes from football prop betting.

  • Many of these lines won't be available to everyone, do not bet a lesser line. I'm not originating, I'm finding bad lines.
  • Always do your homework and ensure market dynamics haven't changed - a lot can happen in the time between me writing this and you reading it. If I like -120 but you see -110 everywhere, then clearly something has happened where now not even -110 is good.
  • I'm not saying where the bad lines are to avoid conflict of interest & ensure you line shop.

You can also follow me on Twitter @DFSx42 for last-minute additions as I'll tweet out any updates. Sometimes there's some late value (a bunch of game props aren't released until the day of the event) before kickoff that I only have time to tweet.

Playoffs: 23-18 +7.98u
Regular Season: 275-226 +31.385

Official Record: 298-244 +39.365
Unofficial Bonus Bets for Degens: 96-87 +.304u (these all suck so 0.1u each)

Recap

The Buffalo game went especially for us and we closed out a weekend that was making a small profit into a huge week for us where we went 11-6 for +6.17 units on our final day to go 23-18 +7.98 units over Wild Card Weekend.

We also seem to be running well at the right time as well where we are finally winning our larger bets at a higher proportion and the majority of our losses are the small half unit bets. Hence why we had so much profit whereas had we been flat wagering, we'd instead be expected to profit about 2-3 units with a 23-18 record.

So I'm pretty happy with how things are going in the playoffs and hope to keep this ball rolling.

Also, I had a hilarious time watching people past posting Trey Palmer touchdown bet slips after the game to appear sharp. No sir, getting +600 on a touchdown from a guy who saw two total targets and had an extreme fluke event of three guys all missing tackles to give him a touchdown is not good value.

You are a donkey for betting that. Even worse, you're a past posting donkey who waits until it wins to share and celebrate it.

999/1,000 times that play runs he either doesn't catch it or gets tackled and you're left at the end of the game wondering why you bet into a 6:1 touchdown prop on a guy who finished with one catch for a dozen yards in the middle of the field.

Since we expect more interest/volume because it's the playoffs, we're going to be posting this a bit earlier than usual. This means three things:

  1. There won't be much to bet early on because our system relies heavily on a mature market, as a result, I'm going to be including some touchdown props this week. I usually avoid these because they are not very efficient compared to other props but there's not much available at this stage of the week so will be expanding the offerings.
  2. I'll be updating this throughout the week so come back periodically looking for updates (you can also follow me on twitter as I'll send out a tweet each time I add some wagers)
  3. If lines were hard to catch in time previously, they'll be harder to get now. The few lines we're putting out initially will probably be bet into destruction long before kickoff - so just a gentle reminder to review the disclaimer at the top and do not tail these if the lines aren't there and come back regularly for updates.

I'll do my best to update this, mark the new bets to make them easy to find, and make a note when a bet that I put up earlier in the week is no longer a good bet (we'll keep it for record-keeping but if you haven't bet it already, then don't bet it now).

Think of prop betting as a banana stand and don't try to force things where you can burn it all down. Let the money come to you.

2024 NFL Divisional Round Football Prop Bets

Continue the Betting discussion on Discord and discuss other betting lines with F6P Analysts!

At the time of writing this, I have no positions on any of these sides and totals. That will likely change if I find value as we go along.

UPDATE: We had a lot of stuff here booked early in the week. As the market is always adjusting, if the position has lost an edge then I've updated the bet with VALUE LOST to let you know not to bet it if you already haven't. Likewise, the stuff that's improved will have VALUE GAINED in front of it, which means you can upgrade it to a larger unit size if it's still available (but 99% of the time it won't be).

GLGL, I still have no positions on any sides or totals at this moment.

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens

Opened at BAL -9.5 and 46. We still have a long way to go and limits are still not maxed out but it's already moved a bit lower to 44 while the spread has remained unchanged.

I went into this season believing Houston to be one of the worst teams in the NFL and here we are. If Stroud doesn't get the MVP it's an absolute travesty imo. But he definitely won't.

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