2024 NFL Wild Card Weekend Football Prop Bets

by DFSx42
2024 NFL Wild Card Weekend Football Prop Bets

Welcome to the 2024 NFL Wild Card Weekend Football Prop Bets!

The TL:DR disclaimer is that while I am a professional gambler, <1% of that income comes from football prop betting.

  • Many of these lines won't be available to everyone, do not bet a lesser line. I'm not originating, I'm finding bad lines.
  • Always do your homework and ensure market dynamics haven't changed - a lot can happen in the time between me writing this and you reading it. If I like -120 but you see -110 everywhere, then clearly something has happened where now not even -110 is good.
  • I'm not saying where the bad lines are to avoid conflict of interest & ensure you line shop.

You can also follow me on Twitter @DFSx42 for last-minute additions as I'll tweet out any updates. Sometimes there's some late value (a bunch of game props aren't released until the day of the event) before kickoff that I only have time to tweet.

Official Record: 275-226 +31.385u
Unofficial Bonus Bets for Degens: 88-81 +.231u (these all suck so 0.1u each)

Recap

We capped off the regular season with an absolute banger of a Sunday going 9-4 for +7.78 units profit. We did go 0-2 on the degen bets, but as I said, it's your own fault if you bet that garbage. (it's labeled degen for a reason!)

We're going to try a new format now with the playoffs here. It's a pretty simple concept and I'll let esteemed Maryland state Senator Clay Davis explain how the wagers will be arranged going forward.

You heard that right.  We'll be integrating the wagers via a Google sheet. This should streamline things going forward and no joke, while I enjoy doing this, it's been quite the time suck at times just getting basics down and we're hoping adopting this will help me get stuff done faster going forward.

We're also going to start bucketing our results. We'll still count everything as a "season" but will keep a breakdown of the regular season only vs playoff only vs everything.

Things have gone better than I'd hoped for and I hate to jinx it but I am really happy with the results we've had. As I've said before, I've only ever previously dealt with football props in terms of how they relate to DFS and have no idea what to expect in these playoffs.

2024 NFL Wild Card Weekend Football Prop Bets

Continue the Betting discussion on Discord and discuss other betting lines with F6P Analysts!

At the time of writing this, I have no positions on any of these sides and totals. That will likely change if I find value as we go along.

Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans

Opened as a pk and 41 and has moved quite a bit to CLE -2.5 and 44.5

This one kind of surprised me, Houston is at home with their starting quarterback and the Browns are playing Joe Flacco. Flacco has looked good though so perhaps "proven Super Bowl winner" is baked into the models on this one. As bad as I thought Houston would be going into the season, I am somewhat surprised they are not the favorite here.

Now that they are +2.5 at some books, I'm looking to tease Houston but there's nobody to tease them with 🙁

I lean to the over and HOU but also kind of hoping for a Flacco Super Bowl run

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