2024 PGA DFS Arnold Palmer Invitational DraftKings and Betting Preview

by Keith Flemming
2024 PGA DFS Arnold Palmer Invitational DraftKings and Betting Previe

This week the PGA Tour visits the famed Bay Hill golf course for the second leg of the Florida Swing. In my 2024 PGA DFS Arnold Palmer Invitational DraftKings and Betting Preview, we'll discuss the data and trends that have led to players having success at this venue.

Bay Hill is arguably the toughest par-72 course on tour annually. It features three inches of thick bermuda rough with lightning-fast greens. Making the Arnold Palmer Invitational one of the firmest and toughest courses the tour faces each year.

Keep the conversation going with me on Twitter/X @KeithFlemming . You can also find me every Wednesday at 1 pm Eastern on @espnpc1043 Inside Drive talking golf with host Ryan Mulvey during my weekly segment previewing that week's PGA event.

2024 PGA DFS Arnold Palmer Invitational DraftKings and Betting Preview

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The Venue (Bay Hill)

Bay Hill is one of the most difficult venues on tour. The course's superintendent changed the layout of the course in 2020 making scoring more difficult in the process. Flynn widened the fairways enticing players to be more aggressive with their drives in an attempt to cut the corner on Bay Hill’s dogleg holes.

He also shaved off a great deal of rough surrounding the water and bunkers, making it easier for balls to roll into the hazards. This change led to the course having the highest percentage of penalty strokes on the PGA Tour in the last three years.

Bay Hill is a venue where a player’s course history matters more than most events. So much of succeeding at this at Bay Hill boils down to leaving or hitting the ball in the correct spot for the player's next shot. This is why 16 of the past 19 winners had played in at least three previous Arnold Palmer Invitational events.

Course Comps 

  • Augusta National
  • Quail Hollow
  • Muirfield Village

Key Stats 

  • Strokes Gained: Total Driving
  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Proximity from 200+ yards
  • Par-5 Scoring
  • Course History Bay Hill
  • Course History Florida Swing

My 2024 PGA DFS Arnold Palmer Invitational DraftKings and Betting Preview

Viktor Hovland $9.9k +1600 to win

Hovland excels at many of the aspects of a player’s game that often lead to success at Bay Hill. Cam Young is the only player in the field for their career who averages gaining more strokes off the tee at this event than Hovland.

Viktor has shown promise at this venue with consecutive top-10 finishes at Bay Hill. He’s one of the best players on tour from 175+ yards into the greens and he’s 12th on tour this year in par-5 scoring.

Hovland’s glaring weakness in his career is his ability to chip around the greens. The short game of Hovland has improved significantly over the last six months. Courses with firm conditions surrounded by thick, rough have historically been the courses Hovland gains the most strokes around the greens on the field for his career.

Another option in this price range: Jordan Spieth $9.4k/+2500 to win/+450 top-5

Ludvig Aberg $9.5k +2000 to win

Ludvig Aberg doesn’t fit many of the recent trends by winners of this event due to only one previous appearance in this event finishing T-24. The reason I’m bullish on Aberg is his elite ability to drive the golf ball long and straight. He is also one of the best long-iron players on tour and he’s playing a golf course with four par-3s that average over 200 yards in length each.

The young Swede is in great form with three consecutive top-30 finishes heading into this event. Highlighted by a 9th place finish on another difficult venue at the Farmers Insurance Open. Thanks to Kitayama's debut/win in this event last year and Scottie Scheffler winning this event in his second appearance in 2022 I think Aberg is a safe play with immense upside.

Cam Young $8.7k +2800 to win/+500 top-5

I believe Young is a real value in DFS at his price this week. Young’s average of 1.06 strokes gained off the tee is the highest mark in this year’s field. He’s played in this event twice with a 13th-place finish in 2022 and a 10th-place finish last season.

Young is in strong form entering this week with three straight top-16 finishes. In those tournaments, he racked up 63 birdies while averaging over 90 points per tournament on DraftKings. He’s 25th on tour this season in par-5 scoring and has a good track record at this event, mainly due to his elite ability to hit the ball long and straight off the tee.

Adam Scott $7.5k +400 top-10

Scott has a great track record at this event including made cuts in six of his last seven appearances at Bay Hill. He’s excelled here even after the setup change in 2020 with consecutive top-30 finishes over the last two years.

What I like the most about Scott this week is his recent form. Scott is a player who traditionally plays his game into shape for golf’s major season. This year he’s hit the ground running with a top-20 finish in all three of his starts in 2024.

Another option in this price range: Corey Conners $7.8k +400 top-10

Keegan Bradley $7.4k +5500 to win/+1000 top-5/+450 top-10

Keegan Bradley is arguably the best value on DraftKings and betting boards for this event. He’s made the cut in this event in eleven straight appearances and has three consecutive top-11 finishes in the last three years.

For his career, Bradley has gained strokes on the field at Bay Hill in multiple categories and is a big reason why he’s 6th in the field in total strokes gained since 2016. Bradley has gained strokes on the greens at this event in three straight appearances. Finally, he loves the Florida Swing as he’s 2nd in total strokes gained over his last 50 rounds in the state of Florida.

Another option in this price range: Chris Kirk $7.8k +1000 top-5/+400 top-10

Min Woo Lee $6.6k +4000 to win/+800 top-5

Min Woo Lee appears to be an extreme value on DraftKings this week at $6600. He’s 4th on Tour this season in par-5 scoring and 12th on tour in proximity from the hole by approaches of 200+ yards into the greens. The young Aussie has elite ball speed and distance off the tee makes him a good fit for this course.

I love the consistency Lee has shown in recent months. He’s played in 14 events since November on the PGA and World Tour. He’s made the cut in each of those events. Lee has six top-10 finishes in that span, highlighted by his runner-up finish last week at the Cognizant Classic.

Another option in this price range: Andrew Putnam $6.3k +1200 top-10/+400 top-20

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Be sure to check out our show Two off the Tee on the Fantasy Six Pack YouTube Channel. Each week, my cohost Allen and I will break down the tournament for that week and give betting/DFS plays.  

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