2024 PGA DFS Genesis Invitational DraftKings Preview

by Keith Flemming

Before diving into the 2024 PGA DFS Genesis Invitational DraftKings Preview, in the words of Jay-Z, "allow me to reintroduce myself."

This is my second year providing DFS Golf and Football content for Fantasy Six Pack. Hopefully, you followed the amazing DFS Football content on F6P provided by myself, @detroitbeastie , @corporaleddy , and @joeematz. If you did, you more than likely had a profitable football season.

As good as the football content on F6P was this year, my content on golf last year was even better. In this column last season, I provided ten DraftKings plays for each PGA tournament. Those articles provided 14 eventual winners including three of the four major champions. This included my best call last year Brian Harman winning The Open Championship.

This year my content will include a weekly column similar to last year. The one difference with my written work for this golf season is it will include some of my favorite bets and props for that week's event. Me and @activelylazy85 will be going live every Tuesday night on Fantasy Six Pack's YouTube channel again this year as well. Each week we will preview the venue, discuss stats that have led to success in previous years at that venue, and provide our favorite bets/props for the week.

It's great to be back discussing golf which is one of my true passions in life. Keep the conversation going on Twitter/X @KeithFlemming where I love talking DFS and interacting with my followers. You can also find me every Wednesday at 1 pm Eastern on @espnpc1043 Inside Drive talking golf with host Ryan Mulvey during my weekly segment previewing that week's PGA event.

2024 PGA DFS Genesis Invitational DraftKings Preview

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The PGA Tour hosts its third signature event at the famed Riviera Country Club in California this week. Similar to the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, the field will comprise just 71 players. That includes the following: the top 50 from the prior season’s FedEx Cup, Nos. 51-60 from the prior season’s FedEx Cup Fall, the top-five FedEx Cup earners in-between Signature Events, current year tournament winners, the leading finisher from the Race to Dubai, the top 30 in the Official World Golf Rankings, and four sponsor’s exemptions.

One of those exemptions will be going to none other than Tiger Woods, who will be making his 2024 season debut. He will be joined by the likes of Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, and 2021 Genesis Invitational champion Max Homa.

Several big golf stories heading into this week's event including the return of Tiger Woods, the absence of defending champion Jon Rahm, and the fallout from the tense altercations between tour players and rowdy fans at the Waste Management Open last week. We will dive into those headlines on our show Tuesday night only on Fantasy Six Pack's YouTube channel.

 2024 PGA DFS Genesis Invitational DraftKings Preview: Course Preview (Riviera Country Club)

Riviera Country Club is an iconic venue on tour and will host the Olympic Men's Golf Competition in 2028. It is known for its tight doglegs, narrow fairways, and tricky kikuyu rough and greens that are as firm and fast as any on tour.

This course is known for challenging all players who tee it up there. It is extremely difficult to hit fairways and that leads to players missing a lot of greens as well.

The field will not have short wedges into many greens here, 75% of the approach shots come from 150 yards or further. The greens are some of the toughest on tour for players to make putts inside 15 feet. It ranks in the top 5 on your in that category.

Course Comps

  • Bay Hill
  • Torrey Pines
  • Quail Hollow
  • Augusta National

Key Stats

  • SG: Tee to Green (Difficult Conditions)
  • SG: Putting (POA)
  • SG: Around the Greens
  • SG: Scrambling
  • Bogey Avoidance (Difficult Conditions)
  • Par 4 Scoring (450-500 yards)
  • Par 5 scoring (550-600 yards)

My 2024 PGA DFS Genesis Invitational DraftKings Preview (Lineup)

Scottie Scheffler ($11,500)/+650 to win

If you have followed my work you are aware that I rarely recommend betting on the player with the lowest odds in a PGA field or any player $10k and above on DraftKings. Especially when said player doesn't have a stellar record at that venue, but I think Scheffler this week is a great play for both.

Coming into this season I expected a huge season for Scheffler. With Jon Rahm leaving for the LIV Tour there is an opportunity for Scottie to grab hold of the top dog crown on the PGA Tour. He's off to a great start with a win and three other top-6 finishes in his first five events this season.

In Scheffler's 19 rounds this season on tour he's shot in the sixties in seventeen with eleven of those rounds being scores of 66 or lower. He's made a birdie on 33% of his holes this season with zero double bogeys made. If you are hesitant about betting Scheffler to win at his odds of +650 I would wait and see if he gets off to a slow start Thursday. A slow start Thursday would allow an opportunity to live bet him to win at much better odds. That is something I recommended when he was 12-1 during his first round at the Hero World Challenge on my Twitter account.

Justin Thomas ($9,100)/16-1 to win

Justin Thomas is my favorite play this week for DraftKings and my favorite bet to win at +1600 odds. Thomas has a great track record at this event with three top-10 finishes here since 2018. There are only five players in the field this week who have averaged more birdies or better per round at Riviera Country Club in the last five years of this event.

Thomas is showing signs of a big bounce back from his struggles in 2023. This time last year JT had two rounds in the 60's with 28 holes where he made a bogey or worse on his scorecards. This season he's shot in the 60's in ten of his eleven rounds on tour. His birdie percentage for 2024 is 32.8%.

My main concern with Thomas this week is his issues on the greens. Last week he gained over seven shots on the field tee to green, only to lose over a shot to the field on the greens. The good news is Thomas historically putts better on POA greens than any other putting surfaces on tour. I also believe that the return of his good friend and mentor Tiger Woods could inspire JT leading him to his first victory in 2024.

Another option in this price range: Ludvig Aberg $9.2k/20-1 to win

Jason Day ($8,000)/50-1 to win/9-1 top-5

I left Jason Day out of my official plays for the Genesis despite him entering that week showing good form. The reason I excluded him was a terrible track record at this venue. Day ended last year's Genesis with a T-9 finish and was on his way to a stellar 2023 season overall.

It's baffling that it took Day until last year to find success at Riviera Country Club. He's always excelled putting on POA greens gaining over a stroke on the field for his career. He is great from the 150-175 yard distance that so many second shots come from at this venue. Plus, he's one of the best scramblers on tour year after year.

When we last saw Day on the PGA Tour he shot a 63 in a rain-soaked third round at Pebble Beach two weeks ago. The fourth round was eventually cancelled thus not allowing Day a chance to get his first win of the 2024 season. I believe Day is an extreme value on DraftKings this week at his price and I love his odds to win and top-5 this week at Riviera.

Another option in this price range: Sahith Theegala $8.6k/35-1 to win/7-1 to top-5

Eric Cole ($7,700)/12-1 top-5/5-1 top-10

The 2023 PGA Tour Rookie of the Year winner Eric Cole makes his tournament debut at the Genesis Invitational this week. If you followed my work last year you are well aware of my love and admiration for Cole. He's one of the more consistent players on tour and in my opinion, continuously underpriced on DraftKings.

I would feel much better about including Cole in my official lineup if this event had taken place a few weeks ago. Entering the AMEX, Cole was on a tear with five straight finishes of 14th or better on tour. Since his 21st place finish at the AMEX he's had his two worst finishes since September with a 14th place finish at Pebble sandwiched between.

I am still rolling with Cole this week in my DK lineup and as two of my favorite prop bets this week to top-5 and top-10. There are only eight people in the field with more strokes gained total than Cole over the last 75 rounds. Cole excels on strokes gained tee to green and strokes gained around the greens. Players in the top-10 at this event excelled in both of these categories at this event last year. I can't see Cole getting a victory in this 71-player field event but do love his odds to finish in the top-5 and top-10.

Another option in this price range: Adam Scott $8.2k/28-1 to win/6-1 to top-5

Kurt Kitayama ($6,900)/65-1 to win/12-1 top-5

The inclusion of Kitayama is the riskiest in my official DraftKings lineup but also has the most upside and potential. It's risky to use a player in your lineups who has only one career start at this venue and missed the cut in that appearance.

The upside is the fact that Kitayama is on fire right now following his T-8 finish last week at the Waste Management Open. In Kitayama's four events in 2024, his worst finish this season is a 39th at Pebble Beach. Over his last seven rounds, he's shot in the sixties in six of them.

What I love the most about Kitayama this week is his ability to hit quality shots from 150-200 yards out on approach. Over the past 12 months, he ranks in the 73rd percentile on tour from that distance. At this event last year 48% of all approaches came from that 150-200 yard range.

Tom Hoge ($6,900)

Hoge has made the cut at this event in four of his last six appearances including a T-14 finish at Riviera last year. He's in great recent form with a finish of 17th or better in three of his last four starts on tour. I love the value of Hoge at this price with his recent success on tour combined with his top-15 finish at this event last year.

Another option in this price range: Tiger Woods $6.5k/10-1 top-10/+360 to top-20

Be sure to check out my show Two off the Tee which will debut on the Fantasy Six Pack YouTube Channel Tuesday night. Each week, my cohost Allen and I will break down the tournament for that week and give betting/DFS plays.  

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