2024 PGA DFS Mexico Open DraftKings Preview

by Keith Flemming

The PGA Tour heads outside of the United States for the first time this season going south of the border to the Greg Norman-designed Vidanta Vallarta. That brings me to my 2024 PGA DFS Mexico Open DraftKings Preview.

The loss of Jon Rahm who defected to the LIV tour has left this event lacking significant star power as it only features six players currently in the top-60 in the official world golf rankings. Tony Finau the defending champ highlights the field as the significant betting favorite.

The lack of big names at this event is highlighting a huge issue at the moment in professional golf. The non-signature events outside of those interested in DFS and betting purposes are hard to get excited about. Golf needs to solve the LIV/PGA issue and figure out a way to get the best players in the world playing together in more than four events a year.

Keep the conversation going with me on Twitter/X @KeithFlemming . You can also find me every Wednesday at 1 pm Eastern on @espnpc1043 Inside Drive talking golf with host Ryan Mulvey during my weekly segment previewing that week's PGA event.

2024 PGA DFS Mexico Open DraftKings Preview

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The Venue (Vidanta Vallarta)

The combination of the length and conditions leads to a formula that favors players who carry it far off the tee and have solid long-iron play.

Vidanta Vallarta last year rewarded players who excel from 200 plus yards into greens. I will be looking at players who excel in coastal resort courses due to the heavy winds and slow/sticky Paspalum greens. The success of Rahm, Finau, and Cameron Champ proves you should be targeting players with length off the tee and players who excel in long iron approaches.

Comp Courses

  • Corales Golf Club
  • Coco Beach
  • Caves Valley
  • TPC Craig Ranch

Keys Stats

  • Driving Distance
  • Proximity 200+ yards
  • Birdie or Better Gained
  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
  • Strokes Gained: Tee to Green(2023 and > 7400 Yard Courses)
  • Strokes Gained: Total(Windy Conditions)
  • Comp Course History

My 2024 PGA DFS Mexico Open DraftKings Preview (Lineup)

Nicolai Hojgaard ($10,700)/+1400 to win/+360 top-5

Heavy favorites have dominated the winner's circle at this event over its two-year history. I passed on including the heavy betting favorite Tony Finau in my DraftKings lineup and betting board in lieu of Nicolai Hojgaard.

Hojgaard has never played in this event but he is the player in the best form in this field. Over his last ten events, Hojgaard has a win and four additional top-5 finishes including a runner-up finish at the Farmers Insurance Open.

He's second in the field in total strokes gained for my comp course history and he's top-10 in the field in the very important driving distance metric. The Puerto Rico Open and Bermuda Championship have close leaderboard correlation to the Mexico Open. I love the fact that Hojgaard is third in total strokes gained for those Caribbean courses in the field.

Another option in this price range: Taylor Pendrith $9.6k/25-1 to win/+550 top-5   

Jake Knapp ($8,700)/40-1 to win/+850 top-5/+400 top-10

My favorite play for DFS this week and one of my favorite players to bet on is Jake Knapp. The newcomer dominated the Korn Ferry Tour in 2023 with ten top-10s on his way to claiming his PGA Tour card.

Knapp has elite distance off the tee averaging over his first four starts 186 mph ball speed off the tee. Vidanta Vallarta is a long and generous layout featuring wide fairways that make elite speed/distance a huge advantage at this venue.

In just four starts on the PGA Tour Knapp's immense talent and abilities have already been on display. His T-28 finish at the Waste Management followed up his T-3 finish at the Farmers Insurance Open two weeks prior.

The main reason I love Knapp this week is he's more than just a bomber. During the two events mentioned above he gained four plus strokes on approach, while also gaining positive strokes around the greens and putting in each of those events.

Another option in this price range: Davis Thompson $8.9k/35-1 to win/+750 top-5 

Cameron Champ ($8,600)/50-1 to win/+175 top-10

I can't remember a player in all my years of following the PGA Tour like Cameron Champ who either contends to win an event or seems to miss the cut with no in-between. Vidanta Vallarta is a tailor-made course for Champ's distance and aggressive play.

Champ hits the ball a mile off the tee as he ranks 4th in driving distance in the field. Making it no surprise that Champ has found success here with consecutive top-10 finishes. He's third in the field in total strokes gained at this venue making him a real value in DFS for his price.

By all metrics, Champ is a poor putter with the one exception being on Paspalum greens where historically he gains .4 strokes on the field putting. Many will question this play from me with Champ's struggles on tour this season. He's missed four straight cuts entering this event. However, last season Champ entered this event having missed eight straight cuts prior to finishing eight at this event.

Alejandro Tosti ($7,800)/55-1 to win/+1200 top-5

Anyone who follows the Korn Ferry Tour last year is well aware of Alejandro Totsi's talent and his temper. Last year at this event he shot a closing round 65 to secure a top-10 finish at this event. His success at this venue should surprise no one when you consider he is 1st in the field in driving distance over the last 24 rounds at 311 yards per drive.

Tosti's rookie campaign on the PGA Tour is off to a slow start due to inconsistent iron play. The Mexico Open is the perfect venue to kick the young Argentina bomber's season into gear. His length is too elite for this weak field to overlook him in my opinion. Don't be surprised if he's in contention on Sunday afternoon.

Another option in this price range: Austin Eckroat $8.0k 

Jhonattan Vegas ($7,600)/+1100 top-5/+9000 top-10

Vegas is finally showing signs of being healthy and flashes of him returning to his form from a few years ago. During Vegas's last start in Phoenix he finished 22nd due to him gaining 7.2 strokes ball striking, 3.8 strokes off the tee, and 3.2 strokes on approach.

Historically Coastal Paspalum is a surface Vegas has thrived on in recent years. Vegas has finishes of 2nd (2021 Puerto Rico Open) and 4th (2022 Corales Puntacana), both on Paspalum courses. Of the players in the field over the last 24 rounds played Vegas ranks 2nd in strokes gained ball striking and he's 22nd in the field in driving distance.

Another option in this price range: Sam Stevens $7.1k/+1100 top-5/+500 top-10

Adrien Dumont De Chassart ($6,300)/+1100 top-10/+450 top-20

The 23-year-old Belgian might be an unknown to most golf fans but with his immense talent that won't be the case for long. De Chassart possesses arguably the most desired trait in the field being elite off the tee. In his last start, he gained 4.0 strokes off the tee at the Waste Management.

He's a proven winner on the Korn Ferry Tour who this week will be able to let his driver loose at the Mexico Open due to its wide fairways. That alone makes him a real value in DFS with a huge upside in a weak field.

Another option in this price range: Kevin Dougherty $5.5k/+1000 top-10/+400 top-20

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Be sure to check out our show Two off the Tee on the Fantasy Six Pack YouTube Channel Wednesday night this week. Each week, my cohost Allen and I will break down the tournament for that week and give betting/DFS plays.  

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