2024 PGA DFS Valero Texas Open DraftKings and Betting Preview

by Keith Flemming
2024 PGA DFS Valero Texas Open DraftKings and Betting Preview

The PGA Tour tees it up in the state of Texas for the second consecutive week and last event before golf's first major. Before diving into my 2024 PGA DFS Valero Texas Open DraftKings and Betting Preview, I wanted to highlight some Masters future bets I like for next week.

Masters Futures

Brooks Koepka +2000 to win: There were legitimate questions entering last year's Masters whether Brooks Koepka could still dominate major championship leaderboards. From 2015 to 2021 Koepka played in 24 major championships. He won four of them with eleven top-5 finishes in that span. Koepka joined the LIV Tour in 2022 during a period where his game and health was in shambles.

Many didn't expect Koepka to contend at Augusta in 2023 following his struggles in the majors the previous year. Koepka proved at the 2023 Masters his recent struggles were from him not being healthy. He finished second at Augusta and followed it up by winning his fifth major a month later at the PGA Championship.

Logically trying to understand how Brooks Koepka has the fourth lowest odds for golf's first major is difficult. Rather than trying to figure out why this is, instead I'll recommend betting him at 20-1.

Patrick Reed +8000 to win: I brought up the possibility of a "LIV tax" last year when discussing golf's majors. It appears for DFS, and on betting boards, golfers from the LIV Tour are receiving discounted odds/pricing. How else can you explain Brooks Koepka being +2000 to win with his major pedigree or Patrick Reed +8000 to win with his track record at Augusta National?

Reed won this event in 2018 and has continued to excel at The Masters ever since. In his five starts at Augusta since his win, Reed has finished no worse than 36th with three top-10 finishes. A players course history at Augusta is as significant as any venue on Tour.

Russell Henley +10000 to win: Did you know Russell Henley has finished inside the top-15 three of his last four starts at Augusta National? His game is tailor made for The Masters. Henley excels in his approach game and putting. Both of those skill sets are imperative for someone to find success at Augusta whom doesn't have elite distance. Patrick Reed's win at The Masters in 2018 is the blueprint Henley should copy if he wants to content and win at Augusta this year.

Keep the conversation going with me on Twitter/X @KeithFlemming . You can also find me every Wednesday at 1 pm Eastern on @espnpc1043 Inside Drive talking golf with host Ryan Mulvey during my weekly segment previewing that week's PGA event.

2024 PGA DFS Valero Texas Open DraftKings and Betting Preview

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The Venue - TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course)

The Oaks at TPC San Antonio was designed by Greg Norman with Sergio Garcia as a consultant. This course is in the top ten for the longest courses on tour. The Par 72 plays at 7,438 yards and features the standard breakout of ten par-4s, four par-5s, and four par-3s.

Like Augusta next week, the Oaks course features some of the least penal rough on tour. It's a heavy tree-lined venue that relies on wind, deep bunkers, and firm conditions to challenge players. The 64 bunkers mostly surround the greens in areas errant approaches typically land.

Course Comps

  • Colonial CC
  • Memorial Park
  • PGA National
  • TPC Twin Cities
  • TPC Phoenix
Key Stats
  • SG: Approach
  • SG: Total (High Winds)
  • Bogey Avoidance
  • Par 5 Scoring
  • Good Drives Gained/Fairways Gained
  • Course and Comp Course History

My 2024 PGA DFS Valero Texas Open DraftKings Lineup

Hideki Matsuyama $10.6k/+2000 to win

Hideki is off to an incredible start to his PGA Tour season. He’s finished inside the top-13 in four of his last six starts on tour with a win. Hideki currently leads the tour in strokes gained around the green. His ability to scramble could be huge if the winds blow like expected Friday/Saturday.

He’s still one of the best ball strikers on the planet. Currently he’s 4th on tour in strokes gained tee to green. What I like most about Hideki this week is his numbers on approaches into greens. He’s top-20 in proximity on shots from 125 yards and within and the same for shots 200+ yards out.

Another option in this price range: Collin Morikawa $10.1k/+2800 /+650 top-5

Byeong Hun An $9.0k/+700 top-5

Byeong Hun An feels like a real discount on DraftKings this week at his price. He finished 6th in this event last year and 7th in 2019. An is top-25 on tour this season in green in regulation %, proximity, and approaches from over 200 yards into the green. By excelling in those stats it makes it less likely he’ll end up in this courses difficult green side bunkers.

Brian Harman $8.6k/+3500 to win/+800 top-5

Historically this course has been friendly to players without elite distance who excel in firm and fast conditions. Brian Harman and Russell Henley are two players who fit these characteristics. Neither has played in this event since 2019 or found success at this venue but I believe that will change this week.

Harman has excelled on links courses that feature firm and windy conditions. He won The Open Championship last year with relative ease. For someone like Harman who loses strokes off the tee due to his lack of distance off the tee. This venue levels the playing field for players with their drivers.

Harman still excels at every part of his game after his tee shot thru the green. He’s currently top-50 in strokes gained approach and strokes gained around the greens.

Harman’s putter is why I like him this week and as a sneaky play at Augusta the following week. He’s 6th in putting average, 7th in total putting, 11th in putts per round, and 6th in three putt avoidance.

Another option in this price range: Russell Henley $8.2k/+4500/+900 top-5

Aaron Rai $7.8k/+5500 to win/+500 top-10

Aaron Rai has played in this event the last two years and finished inside the top-30 in both appearances. He’s rebounded from a slow start to his season with four top-35 finishes in his last five starts.

Rai is one of the best ball strikers on the planet right now. He leads the tour in driving accuracy, is 19th strokes gained approach, 5th in GIR%, and 22nd in proximity.

Surprisingly Rai has gained a majority of his strokes on the field in this event from around the greens and on them. If this trend continues at this venue and he strikes the ball the way he has this season, I expect Rai to be on the leaderboard this weekend.

Maverick McNealy $7.4k/+5000 to win/+1100 top-5

Maverick McNealy is one of the better players who hasn’t qualified for the Masters next week in this field. Meaning this is McNealy’s last chance to earn a spot into the 2024 Masters field with a win this week.

The young American is in great form with seven consecutive top-45 finishes on Tour. This includes three top-15 finishes in his last five events.

McNealy has only played once at this venue in 2022 where he finished 35th. That week he gained huge numbers on the field in strokes gained ball striking, off the tee, and on approach.

Another option in this price range: Keith Mitchell $7.6k/+650 top-10

Andrew Novak $6.8k/+10000 to win/+900 top-10

Novak is another real value on DraftKings this week at his price. Last year in his second career start at this venue he finished 9th despite below average ball striking numbers.

This season he’s excelling in many ball striking metrics including 18th strokes gained tee to green, 16th in strokes gained on approach, and 21st in proximity to the hole. He’s also 31st in scrambling and 8th in sand saves entering this event.

Another option in this price range: Lucas Glover $7.2k

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There is no Two off the Tee show this week but check out all the other great content currently on the Fantasy Six Pack YouTube Channel

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