2024 Spring Training Risers and Fallers – 2-27

by Connor Thomure
2024 Spring Training Risers and Fallers

Baseball fans, it's time to rejoice; Major League Baseball is back! Spring Training games are underway, and Opening Day is on March 28, just over a month away. With this comes the 2024 Spring Training Risers and Fallers for 2-27.

This weekly article will be up every Monday until the start of the regular season. It covers the players that rise and fall in terms of average draft position, rankings, and draft boards. This is based on a mix of performance, injuries, and changes such as batting stance, adding a new pitch, etc.

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In this first week, we have two exciting prospects on the rise. One is all but locked into the opening-day roster, while the other has a less direct path. Also on the rise is a pitcher going undrafted in most leagues. An injury to a teammate gives him an opportunity to start the season in the rotation, but that's not the exciting part. The interesting part is his new pitch that he spent the offseason working on.

Three key players wound up injured this week and are falling down the board as a result. This includes a starter ranked in the top 20 of starting pitchers, a sleeper candidate in the outfield, and a low-end closer. Now it's time for the 2024 Spring Training Risers and Fallers.

2024 Spring Training Risers and Fallers - 2-27

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Risers

Masyn Winn, SS, St. Louis Cardinals

After a three-hit performance in his spring debut, St. Louis Cardinals' top Prospect (MLB.com) Masyn Winn is on the rise. FantasyPros ADP Consensus lists Winn's ADP at 348, suitable for 395th overall and 41st amongst shortstops. At this price, Winn is going undrafted in many leagues.

Winn already shows that he should and will be the starting shortstop on opening day. In his 2024 Fantasy Baseball Shortstop Preview, Corey Pieper lists Winn as a shortstop on the horizon. I couldn't agree more with him. Pieper notes Winn struggled to hit MLB pitchers but had an above-average year when combining his MLB and Triple-A statistics.

If Winn hits well this spring, he'll move up in rankings and go off draft boards sooner.

James Wood, OF, Washington Nationals

James Wood is doing his best to make a solid case to break camp with the big league team. The 21-year-old outfielder is the Washington Nationals' number two prospect. In two games, Wood belted two home runs in five at-bats, one at 109.7 MPH that flew 422 feet.

In 2023, Wood competed at the High-A and Double-A levels. He slashed a combined .262/.353/.520 with 28 doubles, eight triples, and 26 home runs. He also recorded 18 stolen bases in 21 attempts.

Joey Gallo, Stone Garrett, Victor Robles, Lane Thomas, and Jesse Winker are ahead of him on the Nationals' depth chart. However, Thomas is the only one who has locked down a spot in the lineup. It shouldn't surprise anyone if Wood carves a place in the opening-day lineup.

With an ADP of 372 and an overall rank of 436, Wood isn't on the redraft radar. But should he be? We'll have to wait for more spring games before deciding, but this is a great start.

Tylor Megill, SP, New York Mets

One of the best parts of spring training is seeing the new things players are working on. In this case, fans see a new pitch from Mets pitcher Tylor Megill. Megill isn't the flashiest pitcher in baseball and has struggled through most of his first three seasons. However, he has started throwing a new forkball that can turn him into a weapon.

Usually, there is mild excitement around a pitcher trying a new pitch, but this one is different for one reason. This pitch is based on teammate Kodai Senga's famous "Ghost Fork." Megill's rendition is dubbed as the "American Spork." Catchy right?

Mike Puma of the New York Post reports, "The data the Mets received over the winter on Megill's splitter... indicates it could be in that realm as an elite pitch."

FantasyPros consensus rankings list Megill as the 169th pitcher and don't even list an ADP. In other words, he is essentially free for Fantasy managers to grab in the final two rounds. I'm excited to see how Megill performs the rest of spring.

James Outman, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

James Outman started spring with a bang and could easily be one of this year's biggest risers. He has three hits (one home run) in six at-bats and added a steal. His Current ADP stands at 185, which is fair, but it might rise closer to 140 with a solid spring.

As a rookie in 2023, Outman belted 23 home runs and went 16-for-19 in stolen base attempts in 151 games. However, projections on him seem low heading into this season. He is projected to hit 17 to 23 home runs and record about ten stolen bases. These projections also predict Outman to play in 145 games or fewer.

Realistically, they are projecting the young outfielder to have a similar stat line but fewer games. So the question begs, what numbers will he produce if he plays in at least 150 games? It's not ridiculous to expect 25 home runs, 15 stolen bases, 85 runs, and 75 RBI.

The path to 150 games is not a difficult one for Outman. The Dodgers brought in Teoscar Hernandez, Manuel Margot, and Shohei Ohtani. These three, however, aren't a genuine threat to Outman's playing time. Hernandez will start every day in left field. Ohtani will start every day as the designated hitter. Margot will likely platoon with Jason Heyward in right field.

Fallers

Kodai Senga, SP, New York Mets

After his stellar rookie season, Senga was set to be the ace of the New York Mets. Unfortunately, those plans are on hold after a shoulder strain as Senga will start the season on the injured list. The 31-year-old righty received a PRP injection in his throwing shoulder after experiencing arm fatigue.

Mets President of Baseball Operations David Stearns told reporters, "We're going to shut him down until these symptoms subside and strength returns to normal levels."

The Mets are shutting Senga down for about three weeks. The star pitcher's ADP is already trending down and currently sits at 66.2, or 19th among starting pitchers.

It's tough deciding when to pick an injured player in Fantasy, depending on how many IL spots are available. If a manager has unlimited spots, it's safer to draft Senga earlier. However, managers may want to avoid him altogether if they are limited to a few IL spots.

If you're playing in a league with limited IL spots, I recommend waiting to draft Senga until around pick 120, where Walker Buehler and Justin Verlander are going. Keep a close eye on Senga moving forward, and hope he's not out too long.

Kerry Carpenter, OF, Detroit Tigers

It's another injury for an exciting player. After suffering a left hamstring strain, the Tigers are shutting down outfielder and designated hitter Kerry Carpenter. It's reportedly mild, but it's still bad news, and Fantasy managers need to monitor the situation.

In 2023, Carpenter displayed his power potential by belting 17 doubles, two triples, and 20 home runs in 118 games. RosterResource projects Carpenter to bat fourth in a Detroit Tigers lineup that could surprise many fans this year.

Carpenter's ADP is currently 220.6 and was a potential steal at this price. I'm not moving him down draft boards yet, but if his return timeline is still uncertain when my drafts roll around, I will likely pass on him until pick 260. However, it's still early, and Carpenter has plenty of time to prepare for opening day.

John Brebbia, RP, Chicago White Sox

The final injury we need to discuss is a minor one, but it will affect some Fantasy leagues. John Brebbia, expected closer for the Chicago White Sox, strained his right calf. This will force him to miss a few weeks. This will likely keep him off the opening-day roster. RosterResource lists Jeese Chavez and Brian Shaw as the setup men, and they will likely share closing duties. However, neither are Fantasy relevant.


That's it for the first week of the 2024 Spring Training Risers and Fallers. Check out the rest of F6P Spring Training coverage!

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