Fantasy Football is a tactful game. One wrong draft pick or an incorrect start-sit decision can be the difference between being in contention for the fantasy trophy or waiting for next season.
My fantasy experience has taught me that there is some degree of luck that goes into making a championship run. Preparation and due diligence before and throughout the season only assist to improve your margin of error.
One key aspect of fantasy success is drafting the right players at the right time. A popular strategy is to wait to draft a quarterback. Regardless of scoring and roster formats, the quarterback position remains an anchor of your fantasy roster. If you want to take a quarterback early, they need to earn that specific draft position or value.
Upon further review, I have come up with four Quarterbacks who will not earn their value in the 2017 season, and therefore, I will not draft these quarterbacks. Do NOT make the mistake of drafting the following four quarterbacks too early in your drafts.
4 Do Not Draft 2017 Fantasy Football Quarterbacks
If you want to try out the wait on quarterback strategy or any other type of draft strategy, I suggest you take a look at Mock Draft Tool, powered by FantasyPros. Let me know what you think and how your teams look.
Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts (Fantasy Pros ECR 5, ADP 56th Overall)
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Injuries have been a big part of Luck’s career lately. This is thanks to Andrew Luck taking more QB hits than any QB in the league last season. Not good news for Luck is the Colts did nothing to improve the offensive line that gave up the 4th most sacks. Worse new is after the 2016 season, Andrew Luck got bicep surgery on his throwing arm.
Due to the surgery, Luck is going to miss the entire preseason but should be ready by Week 1. However, Luck wouldn't commit to playing in the season opener. Even if he does, he may not be 100 percent. Furthermore and more importantly, Luck is not even throwing yet.
Luck is getting roughed up week in and week out, as well as not having any impact players, besides wide receiver T.Y. Hilton. Donte Moncrief is always injured. Philip Dorsett is no more than a bye-week filler at best even in deeper fantasy formats. The Colts are hoping TE Jack Doyle can become a red zone weapon as advertised.
The asking price for Luck is too high. Uncertainty is plentiful with drafting a quarterback who is coming into the season with a robotic arm and an offensive line that will be sure to let him take his hits again in 2017.
Luck is getting the love like he is an automatic top four quarterback once again. With the aforementioned factors, I don't believe that Luck will reach that level. Therefore, Luck will not be a player I draft as a top five quarterback. The best case scenario for me to minimize risk and draft him would be for him to fall between seventh and tenth-ranked quarterbacks.
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (6, 49th)
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Matt Ryan easily had the best season in his nine-year career in 2016. The league’s MVP finished with career-highs in yards (4,944), touchdowns (38), yards per attempt (9.3) and quarterback rating (117.1). He also finished as the second ranked quarterback in fantasy behind Aaron Rodgers.
With offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco now, a regression should be expected. Ryan was a top-five quarterback for the first time since 2012. Last season was the best of Ryan’s career. Please don’t expect him to pull off a repeat while working with his third OC in four years.
One fantasy axiom that I always follow is to NEVER pay for a career season. However, fantasy owners are heavily influenced by recency bias. This is fairly convincing proof of it. Ryan had never been a stellar fantasy QB prior to last season. However, his fantasy football draft price is soaring to where he is now being drafted as the QB4 behind Rodgers, Brady, and Brees going in 2017.
My draft philosophy is to avoid taking quarterbacks early and wait for value while filling other positions of need. Drafting Ryan last season as a low ceiling option proved my philosophy will work. Ryan was drafted 114th overall on average in ESPN standard leagues. Yup that's right, the second overall scorer in fantasy had 113 different players taken ahead of him.
You will not be getting the same return on your investment as in 2016. Owners should expect some regression to the mean from Ryan this season. If you can get Ryan in Round seven or eight, you are probably going to see a return for the value.
Taking all of these factors into account, there are too many concerns with drafting the veteran QB too early, therefore I will NOT draft Matt Ryan!
Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers (10, 78th)
Widely drafted as the top fantasy quarterback in 2016, Newton went on to set career lows in multiple passing and rushing categories. He threw for 16 fewer touchdowns. He also ran for half of what he did in 2015 and scored five less rushing touchdowns. As a result, Newton wasn’t even starter material for most of the season, finishing the season outside of the top 15.
To make matters worse for Newton's fantasy outlook, he underwent surgery on his throwing shoulder at the end of March. He won't throw with the team for at least four months.
Another deterrent to Newton's fantasy's value is his protection from his offensive line. Carolina’s offensive line was the fifth-most injured in the NFL. Furthermore, teams blitzed Newton at the highest rate in the league per Pro Football Focus (40%) Cam Newton is actually the fifth-most pressure impacted quarterback in the NFL.
Really, it’s tough to identify any aspect of his game or his situation that’s headed in the right direction for fantasy purposes. There is zero reason to think that the Panthers intend to use Cam as the primary goal-line rusher still. This was one of his biggest assets in both real and fantasy football is his ability to run with the football near the end zone.
His ADP is way too high for him to return any value and doesn't fit his potential anymore. He has a group of factors that are taking a toll on his performance and subsequently, his fantasy value. Cam lacks the fantasy weapons that will jettison him up the fantasy rankings. Newton is quickly becoming a fantasy football bust and therefore, someone not to draft in 2017.
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (12, 89th)
It is frustrating to be a fantasy owner of Ben Roethlisberger. He can rack up elite numbers (293.5 .ypg and 27.7 TD the last three seasons) when he is healthy enough to be on the field. However, he has missed six games the past two seasons, so be sure to draft a healthy backup.
One of the biggest issues with Big Ben is that you can't start him in away games. At home, Roethlisberger threw 20 TDs, five picks and registered a 2016 passer rating of 116.7 versus nine touchdowns, eight interceptions and a far less flattering QB rating of 78.4 away from Heinz Field.
Big Ben is overrated in QB ranking and ADP year in and year out. There have been only three times in Roethlisberger’s career that he has finished above QB10 and he hasn’t played a complete season since 2014.
Big Ben has fluctuated around No. 12 mark in quarterback ADP, which places fantasy owners of Roethlisberger in danger of not getting a full season of value out of that pick, thanks to an inevitable injury.
The Steelers are serious about getting one more Super Bowl victory out of Roethlisberger before he officially retires. It means limiting the passing game in favor of running the football to make it happen.
One bad injury could be the end of his career. With Big Ben, you either deal with a decline of production or not making it through a full season healthy. As a Fantasy owner, I don't want to deal with the uncertainty of Big Ben, do you?
|2017 Fantasy Football Position Previews|
|Quarterbacks||Running Backs||Wide Receivers||Tight Ends|
For more F6P preseason coverage please visit our 2017 Draft Kit section.
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