AAF DFS

AAF DFS Week 6 Picks: Hotshots Or No-Shots?

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Before we get to the AAF Week 6 DFS picks, let me share a little conundrum with you that most fantasy football experts endure. Early in the week, we look at the upcoming games. During that time and based upon the results from the weekend’s games, an immediate initial reaction is formed.

As we begin to dive deeper, some of the data will confirm our initial thought. However, some of the data will run counter to that thought and we will be forced to reconsider our take. So we will flip the script. But then by the end of the week, doubt begins to creep in again and we start wondering if our initial impression was right all along. We submit our article whenever it might be due, but we are left with an inner argument no matter what we recommended.

Take the upcoming AAF Week 6 slate. I was always going to go Apollos heavy with the Week 6 picks either way. Yet I couldn’t get the picture of the Hotshots defense being shredded on Sunday night out of mind. But it wasn’t just the defense; the offense played like they were in a pool of oatmeal for most of the game. Hotshots? Um, no. That might be as laughable as this. And those Hotshots were at least fun to watch. The Hotshots on Sunday night were not.


So yes, I will be stacking every Apollo player I can. I’ve said multiple times that Charles Johnson will be in my lineup every week and that obviously won’t change. But I’m not fading Garrett Gilbert against the Hotshots. D’Ernest Johnson, Jalin Marshall, Rannell Hall are all great plays this week as well. Even the guys farther down the Apollos depth chart like De’Veon Smith, Chris Thompson and Akeem Hunt (if he’s active) have my attention this week. My initial thought was also to fade every Arizona Hotshot player as well.

However, as we draw near the end of the week, I now find myself wondering if the Hotshots are actually the smart play. After all, it was too little too late on Sunday, but they did mount a bit of a comeback. The Apollos have the leagues best offense. No argument. But the Hotshots, despite that miserable first half on Sunday, remain the league’s number two offense. Should I really fade those offensive players?

Or perhaps San Antonio is really a strong team? I, of course, did recommend Logan Woodside this past week and he responded with 290 yards and two TDs. But I’m still not sure if they are worthy of their ranking. Had they been at home, I probably would have stacked them as well on many a roster. But they’re not. My guess is that I will have a lot of players in the first game of the weekend, Memphis at Salt Lake. Or maybe I won’t. I still got plenty of time to rethink and make changes to my picks.

Before I change my mind again, might as well start with the Memphis/Salt Lake game for my AAF Week 6 Picks on Fanball.

AAF DFS Week 6 Picks

Quarterback

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I’ve been high on Josh Woodrum all year. This is not the first time I’ve liked him, and after his 380-yard day output last week, I’m going back to him again. He has the highest completion percentage of the six quarterbacks with 100 or more passing attempts. He’s fourth overall in both passing TDs and passing yards. Gilbert will likely outproduce Woodrum, but at $7100, he better. There’s not a lot of room for error there. Thus, I expect many will go for the value play of Mike Bercovici at just $5300. But Woodrum is just $200 more and makes for a great pivot.

But let’s stick with Memphis/Salt Lake as we move to RB.


Running Back

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After scoring twice, Memphis RB Zac Stacy looks like a very tempting pick. However, while watching that game I couldn’t help notice that he looked like he was out of gas by the 4th quarter. And that’s supported by his Richardson-like 3.2 YPC in that game. And I’m going to continue to fade the aforementioned Richardson. Which brings us to the Legends Tarean Folston, who is tempting after last week’s production. He looked good. But with Lawrence Pittman likely back this week and Folston’s price soaring to $5800, he becomes a fade.

I’ve already discussed the Orlando RBs. I expect Kenneth Farrow to be a popular selection this week, especially against Atlanta who has given up the leagues most points. However, since the Week 1 drubbing by Orlando, Atlanta’s defense has improved.  The last two weeks Atlanta has averaged less than 16 points against the last two weeks. I could ignore Atlanta’s defense as well and Farrow’s popularity is still enough reason for me to fade him in GPPs.

I love San Diego’s run game, but that’s a RBBC and don’t want to try and guess which back does the damage. We are starting to run out of options, which of course brings me to the Hotshots.

Am I asking too much of the Hotshots coaching staff to get their heads out of their behinds? Give the rock to Jhurell Pressley instead of the plodding Tim Cook! It seemed like Cook was the primary ball carrier as he did see more carries, but Pressley actually out-snapped Cook, so there’s hope. Despite Pressley getting “Twisted” (a term I coined in high school when someone is refused more a la Oliver Twist) this past week, he remains the leagues third highest rusher. Against Orlando, the coaching staff will want to slow the game down. I think Pressley goes back to double-digit carries this week. I’ll go back and forth on this probably half a dozen times between now and lineup lock, but Pressley is the pick.

Wide Receiver

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But I’ve decided that RB is too unpredictable to flex it, so I’m going with multiple WRs this week. I will start with De’Mornay Pierson El. I didn’t write about him last week, but I did, fortunately, have him in many of my lineups. Since I’m going to go with Woodrum, need to stack Pierson El. He is a PPR machine. He now has eight receptions two of the last three weeks. And he converted those eight receptions this past week into a season-high 130 receiving yards. Nelson Spruce has also been a PPR machine, but a matchup against the Iron this week could throw a wrench into that production.

He’s not a PPR Machine, but you know who is becoming an absolute yardage monster? Dontez Ford. Even with a slow start to his season, he is averaging over 21 yards a catch, the highest YPC of any receiver with at least double-digit receptions. Birmingham is a tough matchup, but they are even stouter against the run. Ford is averaging over 9 fantasy points per game and that seems like a reasonable benchmark for him this week.

I watched the Commanders last week and liked what I saw of MeKale McKay. He caught all five of his targets for 91 yards and touchdown. The matchup against Atlanta and their top-rated pass defense is a little worrisome, but McKay impressed me enough that matchup be damned.


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The flip side of that matchup is Atlanta going against San Antonio’s league-worst pass defense. I recommended Atlanta’s Bug Howard last week and he responded with a respectable 5 catches for 59 yards. His price rose a little, but he’s still a very affordable $3800.

Of course, for twice the price you could go with Arizona’s Rashad Ross. He’s $400 dollars cheaper than Charles Johnson, yet has more fantasy points per game than any other receiver. He has caught a passing touchdown all five weeks of the season, something no one else can say. Ross also owns a Pac-Man like share of Arizona’s targets. Plus, for all of Orlando’s strengths, they are only ranked the fourth-best pass defense. If there’s one Hotshots player I want to own in AAF this week, it’s Ross.

About Mark Strausberg

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