AAF DFS

AAF DFS Week 7 Picks: Heeere’s Johnny! (Like It Or Not)

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Sigh. I guess I have to talk about Johnny Manziel this week, huh? It’s currently Thursday morning and the hype hasn’t died down. Fine. Let me say right up front that of all my AAF DFS Week 7 picks, he is my top fade.

If I was Manziel, I would have joined the AAF as well. And I don’t blame the AAF. One of the best ways to get eyeballs is with ear-grabbing headlines. And there is no denying that Johnny Manziel will grab headlines. It was quiet for a little while with Johnny Football. Yeah, too quiet. I guess I should have not been surprised. Manziel has shown he can play. But is he a good DFS play this week?

No, he’s not. For one, I’m not sure how high his ownership will be, but my guess is that his ownership will be far higher than it should versus some shmoe taking over the league’s worst offense. Memphis has not had a good team, especially on offense. It actually makes sense for Memphis to roll the dice with Manzel, given that Memphis is last in passing by nearly 50 yards per game! Reece Horn has looked good, but not a single Express receiver has really jumped off the page.


In addition, the Express will be taking on the Birmingham Iron. There have been some chinks in the Iron’s defense lately, but they are still one of the league’s better defenses. I can guarantee you that Beniquez Brown and Jonathan Massaquoi are licking their chops at this tasty matchup this week. The Iron are still giving up less than 21 points per game. And lest we forget, the Iron shut out the Express back in Week 1. I don’t think the Iron will keep the Express off the board this time, but I do expect the Iron’s points-per-game to improve after this weekend.

With that out of the way, here are my other AAF DFS Week 7 picks:

AAF DFS Week 7 Picks

Quarterback

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I like Garrett Gilbert to bounce back this week. The game narrative, of course, is that Gilbert and the Apollos will be steamed about losing last week and come out gunning. I can definitely see that happening. However, his salary remains on the high side. He’s anywhere from $500 to $1200 more than some very viable options at QB. He’s a solid cash game play, but I’ll spend my salary elsewhere. He might be the player I fade the most after Manziel.

Meanwhile, San Diego vs Arizona has the makings of a shoot-out, so I’ll take the quarterback with the lower salary in that game, John Wolford. Wolford is second in FP/G behind Gilbert and has nearly six more points per game than the next closest quarterback, but has only the fourth highest salary at $5900 this week. That is value that cannot be ignored.

Running Back

This week appears very chalky at the running back position. Against Atlanta’s league-worst rushing defense, I’ll take D’Ernest Johnson at $5300 thank you. I can use those savings on my WRs. However, its Johnson’s floor I like. You might want to spend up in both GPPs and cash games for a RB with higher upside. Or if you need to save even more money, go with Johnson’s teammate De’Veon Smith, who is averaging over five yards per carry.

Wide Receiver

Speaking of getting value, is it finally time to fade Johnson? I say no, but at $7700 and with a tough matchup at Atlanta, I wouldn’t blame you if you did. And since I will have more shares of Wolford over Gilbert, you better believe I’m high on Rashad Ross this week. Ross leads all WRs in FP/G (fantasy points per game) and against San Diego’s eighth-ranked passing defense, he presents far better value than Johnson at $600 less.

I like most of the top ten WR options this week and if I can shoehorn three of them in this week, I will. However, they will all likely have high ownership. My under the radar option this week is Francis Owusu. He was targeted four times this past weekend, including a 13-yard pass he hauled in for a touchdown. As I mentioned earlier, that SD/Ariz game should be high scoring and Owusu should do enough to warrant his $3600 salary.

Another good way to save a little money to afford 3 quality WRs this weekend is to go with a tight end.

Tight End

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Wait, Tight End? Yes, I said just a few weeks ago that I would stay away from tight ends in AAF until they showed me something. Well, the tight ends are starting to show me show something. I counted at least four TEs that scored this past weekend for example. And they remain a good place to save a little salary.

 


I like Gavin Escobar at $4100 for example, but I’m willing to pay a slightly higher premium for Nick Truesdell at $5100. San Antonio is going to be tough at home this week. However, I think Truesdell will find the holes in San Antonio’s pass defense who has given up the second most yards in the league. Truesdell has scored each of the last two weeks along with catching all 11 of his targets over the last two weeks. I’d expect a similar game from Truesdell this week.

Good luck with your AAF DFS Week 7 picks!

About Mark Strausberg

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  1. Pingback: AAF DFS Week 8 Picks: Spider Senses Tingling - Fantasy Six Pack

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