Welcome to the Bottom of the Barrel 2023 NFL DFS Week 10 RB Edition!
We left off yesterday talking about the idea of being able to see when you’ve had enough. Most of what I talked about yesterday was a line between vague and enough. Big statements are followed up with small ideals or places of personal reference. Shoot, if left to my own devices I will go on and on and on continuously until someone forcibly stops me.
Daily fantasy sports and specifically Bottom of the Barrel is a lighthearted idea I can use for a few reasons. The first one is the connections built between me and you! Without you, the reader, is any of this necessary? I highly doubt it, but it has still opened many lines of communication between us.
Second, we all need an outlet to express ourselves. I almost used the term, to vent. I find each one drastically different. If stop for a moment and look back at how far we have each come from where we started, I bet it is astounding. As we grow and learn can you honestly stop and give me a specific time, or event, that had you question the whole thing? Your entire existence and importance to those around you? If you can then that is a beautiful thing!
Let’s take a break and talk about the running back spot in Week 10, or lack thereof if we’re going to keep up with being honest. The whole, “falls off a cliff quick!” saying fits perfectly! As all the RB ideas start to mount stop and read Bottom of the Barrel. Maybe it’ll help as our work week starts to wind down.
Christian McCaffrey 49ers at Jaguars(8th)
(FD-$10,500)(DK-$9,200)(Y!-$40)
Christian McCaffrey rushed the ball 12 times for 54 yards and a touchdown. While CMC also caught six passes for 64 yards and another touchdown. What more can we do? If CMC is healthy and active there is absolutely no way around this man. I do not care about the opposing team. I do not care about where the venue is where they play. I do not care about how much he costs in any format.
There is no reason to fade CMC. While I get it! I of all people understand how costly he has become but the yardage racked and potential touchdowns scored far outweigh any cost. Let's bet on 17-18 carries, 75-80 yards and a rushing touchdown. While CMC should also catch 4-5 passes for another 35-40 yards and a touchdown. I do not know how to put this but sometimes people get bored easily when they witness someone just flourishing at what they are good at. Please do not ever get bored of CMC. You would only be hurting yourself!
Najee Harris Steelers vs. Packers(23rd)
(FD-$6,500)(DK-$4,900)(Y!-$19)
Your guess is as good as mine when it comes to the final score of this game. Wait, let me rephrase that and ask again. Ok, I am ready, are you? Would you be shocked if this game ended as a 9-6 field goal battle final score? Or what if it was a 31-28 type of final score? Just one of those last teams to touch the field wins kind of games. Seriously, would either one of those outcomes shock you?
If I have learned anything over the years it is that Pittsburgh head coach, Mike Tomlin, will do whatever it takes to win. Whether that means he gets his team to adapt to what is going on around them or they jump ahead and never look back. After all is said and done I am confident that Najee Harris will be heavily involved and a monster for Bottom of the Barrel at running back in Week 10.
Too many things are starting to line up as the weeks hit double digits. Every once in a while I will look ahead a little to help with what I am doing in the here and now. Meaning, the Steelers have what it takes to stay in the Wild Card race for the NFL Playoffs. Run the ball early and often and let your defense go to work. Whatever the final score might be I am confident with Najee Harris in Week 10.
Harris should see 13-14 carries, 55-60 yards, and a touchdown. While catching 3 or 4 passes for another 20 yards.
Tyler Allgeier Falcons at Cardinals(30th)
(FD-$5,900)(DK-$4,700)(Y!-$18)
In all honesty, I have no clue about what is going on in Atlanta. Regardless of topic I always welcome any sort of message that you send me. Come to find out folks are always asking me about trade advice and insider-type stuff. Not once in my adult life have I claimed to be any sort of in-the-locker-room beat post kind of guy. Yet here we are.
The most recent one is as follows, “Any insider info on Bijan Robinson? Like, are they gonna use him or just eye candy?” sent by a friend and fellow Michigander Trevor. A large portion of people have started to freak out in the seasonal community. Unfortunately, that is not my problem.
So, while the Falcons continue to mystify us with their lack of understanding of fantasy sports, let’s just sneakily keep adding Tyler to our DFS entries. In all seriousness, Allgeier might just be the absolute cheapest RB who is guaranteed, at minimum, a dozen total targets and touches.
The Arizona Cardinals defense is giving up the eighth most rushing yards per game. I feel comfortable projecting Tyler with around 13-14 carries, 55-60 yards, 1-2 catches, 10 yards, and a touchdown.
Devin Singletary Texans at Bengals(17th)
(FD-$5,700)(DK-$4,700)(Y!-$14)
Devin Singletary rushed for 26 yards on 13 carries in Week 9 as the Texans beat Tampa Bay 39-37! Devin also caught 2 passes for no yards. In a shocking turn of events, Singletary has become the Texan's go-to RB. Injuries stink and I'm fully aware that Dameon Pierce did not play last week due to an ankle injury. Unfortunately, Pierce has yet to practice this week.
Singletary was on the field for 54 of the Texans offensive snaps last week which was around a 75% snap share. Look, using Devin Singletary in any format isn't something we're going to scream from the mountaintops. However, given what should be another fast-paced and fast-moving game you could do worse this week.
Expect Devin to see 11-12 carries, 45-50 yards, 2-3 targets, 1-2 receptions, and another 10-12 yards. If Devin scores on Sunday then you shout from the mountaintops! I will even join you!
Keaton Mitchell Ravens vs. Browns(4th)
(FD-$5,100)(DK-$4,700)(Y!-$16)
Two things here with Keaton this week. Both are elementary concepts to follow. First, the Browns defensive line is nasty. They just rummage, pillage, and cause utter chaos in their opponents’ backfields. Two, let’s see what this kid can do now with a little heat on his tail. Last week the Ravens beat the absolute hell out of Seattle 37-3.
No heat. All fun. If Baltimore is as good as we think they are then they have already come up with a plan to let the Cleveland DST work hard for very little. Whether it be screens, slants, and other quick hitch routes directly from the backfield.
Leave no stone unturned or any idea explored. It helps once we toss aside two main ideals. This team runs, without a single doubt, through Lamar Jackson. Mark Andrews is going to be the most targeted pass catcher on the Baltimore Ravens. After those two remarks anything goes.
Gus Edwards and Justice Hill are still the top backs in Baltimore but given Mitchell’s price point and the opposing DST, most folks won’t even bother. People will open up and honestly think about Keaton but that thought will come and go quickly. I have Mitchell at 4-5 carries, 25 yards, and a catch or two if we are lucky. As it stands now this kid is averaging 15.3 yards per carry. Not sustainable but very bang for your buck!
Jaylen Warren Steelers vs. Packers(23rd)
(FD-$5,600)(DK-$5,000)(Y!-$18)
Same thoughts here as I had with Warren teammate Najee Harris. With just a little twist! Last week against the Titans, Jaylen carried the ball 11 times for 88 yards and also caught three passes for 25 yards. Without sounding like a broken record there is literally nothing holding him back from putting up similar numbers on Sunday against the Packers.
What I like about a kid such as Warren is the fact I find him to be game script-proof. Not match-up proof but regardless of how the game goes, good or bad, he's going to be on the field. If Pittsburgh falls behind they will look for the kid in certain spots for a spark or a big play. If the Steelers are up and looking to sustain drives they will not hesitate to give Warren the football. We cannot lose!
We should expect another double-digit kind of targets and touches a game for Jaylen here. Given the opposing team, I love his chances of finding the endzone this week for only the second, maybe third, time this season! Look for Warren to carry the football 8-9 times for around 40 yards. While he sees 4-5 targets and catches 3 or 4 passes for another 25-30 yards.
Zach Charbonnet Seahawks vs. Commanders(16th)
(FD-$4,900)(DK-$4,200)(Y!-$12)
Zach's star was already on the rise, a little, then out of the blue Ken Walker III hits the injury reports with a chest injury. To make matters worse Ken did not practice on Thursday. Kind of an odd and ominous feeling. If active Walker III is in a prime spot to smash as the Seahawks look to bounce back after getting beat real bad in Baltimore last week.
Look, Ken has yet to miss a game this season so the optimism that he plays is there. You would like the think Seattle sees what we see and turns to their running game a little more this week. In Week 8 Seattle beat Cleveland as Walker hung 66 yards on 8 carries. While Zach averaged 10.3 yds/carry getting to 53 yards on only 5 carries. Last week was really bad as both backs only combined for 24 yards.
Like it or not Charbonnet is the better pass-catching back and I am counting on folks to really underestimate what this Commanders offense can do. Who is to say this game doesn't turn bad on the Seahawks early, like it did last week, and they come storming back with Charbonnet leading the charge at running back? That is the thing, we do not know! A lot of different moving parts to every game but this one stands out from a betting and DFS perspective. Stack it up.
Tough for me to give a spot on player projection for Zach as it could dramatically change based on Ken Walker's status. In the arena of 7-8 carries 35-40 yards, 2-3 targets, 2 catches, and another 20 yards. These numbers are a mixture of being ambitious with a little bit of apprehension because of Ken.
Tyjae Spears Titans at Buccaneers(2nd)
(FD-$4,900)(DK-$4,500)(Y!-$11)
Anyone backing up Derrick Henry a few years ago was buried on the sidelines. Yet, in a sweet twist of fate, the Titans organization has seemingly brought in Spears to help the King keep his crown. I love it!
This kid has a wiggle! He has a burst, and the weight of this team does not fall squarely on his shoulders. It’s like playing with house money when we use Tyjae in our DFS entries. There are millions upon millions of ways to build a daily fantasy sports entry. Start with the QB, add one stud RB, followed by two WRs in awesome spots, and fill in the blanks after.
Looking at how truly cheap Spears is priced when we get to him in our building process, he’s just a lotto ticket. Lastly, can he be trusted not to goose-egg us, or if he does will the entry survive?
Yes! Let’s plan on Spears to get 5-6 carries, 30 yards, 3-4 catches, and another 25 yards.
Rico Dowdle Cowboys vs. Giants(27th)
(FD-$4,500)(DK-$4,300)(Y!-$11)
Dang. That loss last week in Philly probably still hurts for a few Cowboys fans. Oh well, right? Not to be rude but we need to pick up and move on. If not we get left behind and our vision of what is important starts to fade. Little deep for Rico Dowdle's blurb there, Chris. Well, I'd like to think the passion shines in the first words of each article all the way to the last!
After a little reading, and easily found numbers, it looks as if the Cowboys rushing yards per game average is really down. From 131.7 in 2022 to 90.3 so far in 2022. To us, it's whatever. That is only 41.4 yards. Add in an extra pass, or two, to CeeDee Lamb, and the yardage is easily made up. What is tough to understand is the fact that these numbers are directly affecting Tony Pollard and Rico.
In the grand scheme of things, there is only one number that truly matters. Corny or not, yes, it wins. This game isn't really expected to be close. This is unfortunate because of the history and hatred between the two franchises and their fans. Lastly, the idea of an absolute ton of garbage time work for Rico is too much to deny. It really is that simple!
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