We're well into the college basketball season and with that, markets have increasingly become sharper, especially on the bigger brands of college basketball. And that is why we will look outside the majors for our College Basketball Pick of the Day 1-25-23.
With the volume and handle that the Duke and Kentucky's and other blue bloods take in, sportsbooks dedicate time to getting those lines as sharp as possible. They adjust them quicker than the smaller betting markets. It's time to attack the smaller betting markets with the aforementioned in mind.
One of the major advantages of betting in the smaller college basketball markets is that the sportsbooks don’t have as much information on them. Or they simply don't dedicate the manpower to them. This can create an opportunity for bettors to find value and create an edge when it comes to making their picks.
When researching small college basketball markets, it’s important to look at statistics such as team history, current form, injuries, and team matchups. All of this can help bettors create an edge and find value in their wagers. In my models, I've tried to reflect those aforementioned factors in an ensemble methodology.
Ensemble betting
Ensemble betting is a method of combining multiple betting strategies together to yield higher returns than any single strategy could achieve on its own. This is done by diversifying the sources of information used to make predictions and by combining different techniques for placing bets.
Using an ensemble approach can be very effective. The combination of multiple strategies with different strengths and weaknesses can reduce the overall risk. Us "Ensemblers" try to maximize the return on investment by taking advantage of the strengths of each individual strategy, while also minimizing the weaknesses.
College Basketball Pick of the Day 1-25-23
Today's game: Northwestern Wildcats @ Nebraska Cornhuskers
- Spread: Northwestern -2.5
- Total: 130.5
- TV: BTN
The Breakdown
The Northwestern Wildcats and Nebraska Cornhuskers are set to face off in an entertaining matchup in Lincoln. The Cornhuskers have been having a solid season, but the Wildcats come in rather underrated in my opinion. This game could be a turning point for either team as they look to make some noise in the Big Ten Tourney which is approaching fast.
The Cornhuskers are led by Derrick Walker who leads the team in both ppg (14) and rebounds (7.7). Sam Grissell mans the point and runs an efficient offense. The Cornhuskers like to work the ball and score with their bigger players. They essentially need to because they really struggle from beyond the arc. Nebraska ranks 334 out of 363 in 3 pt%.
Here's the mismatch, Northwestern's offense isn't anything special. They'll get points from multiple players like Ryan Greer and Chase Audige, but the Wildcats defense is No.1 in the nation in defending two-point shots. This is going to be extremely overwhelming for the Cornhuskers, as they'll need a good 3-point shooting night in order to keep pace with the Wildcats.
My model has the Wildcats by 5 in this one, and initial line movement would say I'm on the right track. Get it while you can.
The Play: Northwestern ML and Northwestern -2
Make sure to check out some of our other betting articles!
