Daily Fantasy Sports

DFS Golf 2019 The Masters Tiers

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Hi everyone, this is my first time posting here on F6P but have been posting elsewhere under the username DFSx42.  In brief, I’m a former poker player who has built a bunch of models for DFS and they’ve been pretty successful.  In fact, I’ve been riding my NBA model to be among the top players this year.

By the time you read this, I may or not may have won the Yahoo NBA Cup.  I’ve been in top three for the last month and today is the final slate.  I’m currently in third and just a few points separate me from the leader so it could down to the wire.  I will be writing about this process soon as well, but right now we have golf to attend to.

Now, I want to be clear, I am not a nosebleed stakes player.  Nor is my golf model nearly as successful as my other models.  I’ve had a positive ROI since I ventured into golf two years ago but this is by no means gospel and feel free to disagree and amend these rankings as you see fit.


I also want to preface that there’s a lot of golf data that I don’t really weigh very strongly.  For that reason, you’ll get very different rankings from other people.

For example, I don’t believe in the debutante and course history narratives for the Masters.  Yes, it is true that nobody has won it their first time.  There have also been studies showing that first timers do indeed perform below expectations and veterans perform above expectations.  But I interpret that data differently.  I see this not about first timers vs veterans but rather comparing a young golfer to one in his prime.

Furthermore, many of those first timers never come back, by nature the quality of an average first timer is much lower because they are either at the beginning of their development curve or never really belonged in the first place.

Now, to lineup strategy for the Masters.

2019 The Masters Tiers

Take these tiers to the driving range and win some money playing Yahoo DFS Golf.

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Since simply getting a 6/6 or 5/6 isn’t really that special this week, we’re really going to focus upon only players who have a legit chance of a deep finish. For this reason, we can first eliminate this group of 18 golfers.

Bogey Tier

Sure, anything could happen, but I’ll gladly welcome anyone who wishes to play any of these guys to sit my cash games.

Martin Kaymer
Michael Kim
Trevor Immelman
Vijay Singh
Bernhard Langer
Viktor Hovland
Fred Couples
Takumi Kanaya
Mike Weir
Ian Woosnam
Sandy Lyle
Kevin O’Connell
Jose Maria Olazabal
Angel Cabrera
Jovan Rebula
Larry Mize
Devon Bling
Alvaro Ortiz

Click here to read Mark’s 6 Masters Deep Sleepers

Par Tier

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After that, there’s another tier of not quite hopeless but probably best to avoid.  Nobody is going to question your sanity for playing these guys but there’s usually a better pivot out there.

Alex Noren
Kiradech Aphibarnrat
Kevin Na
Billy Horschel
Aaron Wise
Zach Johnson
Danny Willett
Shane Lowry
Satoshi Kodaira
Jimmy Walker
Adam Long
Patton Kizzire
Kevin Tway
Shugo Imahira
Stewart Cink
Andrew Landry
Charl Schwartzel

This par group that could have a few top 20s or top 10s in them but it’s also a group that I won’t have anything to do with.

It’s one thing to go for low ownership plays but those low ownership plays still need to be guys who will produce and neither I nor the model seem to have faith in any of these guys.

Birdie Tier

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Here’s where it finally begins to get too tricky, this is where the risks begin to actually present some rewards.

Haotong Li
Matt Wallace
Eddie Pepperell
Justin Harding
Emiliano Grillo
Henrik Stenson
Rafa Cabrera Bello
Tyrrell Hatton
J.B. Holmes
Branden Grace
Kyle Stanley
Keith Mitchell
Thorbjorn Olesen
Charley Hoffman
Si Woo Kim
Corey Conners
Jordan Spieth

This is by far the most interesting group of golfers as far as I’m concerned.  Now there are a couple here that aren’t all that exciting, but then there are some others who really pop.

Conners has been phenomenal lately and his recent performance wasn’t some one-off fluke either.  Last week my model projected him as 3rd most likely to make the cut.

Si Woo Kim is always a high risk, high reward guy that is exactly the kind of guy you want to consider in a top-heavy payout kind of GPP we’re likely to be entering for the Masters.

Haotong Li could be one of the next greats.

The list goes on.  But, most importantly, none of these guys have that shiny allure to them right now for various reasons but they are still those same elite golfers.

This is especially true for Jordan Spieth, his results haven’t been there lately, but I refuse to believe he is no longer a good golfer.

This tier here is where you win or lose the GPP.

Incredible Never-Before-Seen Masters Photographs

Eagle Tier

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This is the boring tier.  These guys are what they are.  I think Kisner and Howell will be very highly owned here due to pricing so that offsets some of their allure.

Adam Scott
Patrick Cantlay
Brooks Koepka
Cameron Smith
Louis Oosthuizen
Webb Simpson
Keegan Bradley
Phil Mickelson
Marc Leishman
Sergio Garcia
Lucas Bjerregaard
Kevin Kisner
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Patrick Reed
Ian Poulter
Brandt Snedeker
Charles Howell III

The Green Jacket Tier

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Finally, I give you my top 18 golfers.

Dustin Johnson
Rory McIlroy
Justin Rose
Justin Thomas
Jon Rahm
Bryson DeChambeau
Hideki Matsuyama
Tiger Woods
Xander Schauffele
Tony Finau
Paul Casey
Jason Day
Matt Kuchar
Tommy Fleetwood
Rickie Fowler
Bubba Watson
Francesco Molinari
Gary Woodland

If there were no salary considerations, I’d be drawing exclusively from this list.

I should also note that DJ and Rory are truly in a tier amongst themselves.  There is a very considerable gap between those two and Justin Rose.

Quick Hits

Matsuyama is most likely to make the cut.

Dustin Johnson is most likely to get top 20.

Rory McIlroy is most likely to win it.

Corey Conners offers the best long shot to bet on to win it at 180:1.

Emiliano Grillo at 150:1 is another long shot who would likely win more than once if he played this event 150 times.  I prefer DFS to actual betting, but if I were making sports bets on this event, those are two guys I’d drop a few dollars on.

 


My own conviction play for this event is Hideki Matsuyama.  This isn’t just a pure salary move either, I’d still feel this way if he cost a bit more as well.  I’ll be mixing him in heavily, likely going 100%.  The beauty of Matsuyama though is how naturally lineups build when your centerpiece isn’t a high priced player.  I’m also loving how aside from myself, very few people are talking him up.  And with all this attention to other mid-priced guys, I think he could be available at some pretty reasonably ownership rates.


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About DFSx42

I’m a former poker player who has built a bunch of models for DFS and they’ve been pretty successful. In fact, I’ve been riding my NBA model to be among the top players this year, finishing 5th in this year's Yahoo Cup. https://rotogrinders.com/profiles/dfsx42/blog-posts

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