Draft Wizard Mock Draft: The Worst Starting Draft Slot

by Michael Tomlin
Draft Wizard

The Fantasy Pros Draft Wizard is probably the single best draft preparation tool ever created. The Draft Wizard allows you to: mock draft in minutes, see experts’ picks at that spot, redo prior picks, and see probabilities of a player making it back to you among other things.

So I wanted to give the Draft Wizard a roll. However, I wanted to do the mock with draft slot that is undesirable. So I turned to you, the people. Y’all gave me a resounding answer: the seventh slot is the worst draft slot to have this season.

With this exercise on the Draft Wizard, I used Points Per Reception scoring with a QB/2RB/2WR/TE/FLEX starting lineup and fourteen rounds without a kicker or team defense.

Draft Wizard Mock Draft : The Seventh Hole

Complete a free five-minute mock draft against industry experts and custom analysis for your team with the FantasyPros Draft Wizard.

Round One – 1.07 Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings

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I’m not going to lie; I had to restart the Wizard. Somehow on the first time through Michael Thomas was there at 1.07 which would be a dream scenario for the draft slot, but very unlikely in a PPR league.

However, as we get closer to draft season, I think there will be a clear first five off the board (Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliot, Alvin Kamara, and MThomas). After those five it will be a complete preference and crapshoot on the next seven guys really - unless the Clyde Edwards-Helaire hype goes full-on James Conner-mode and he jumps in the top group.

Cook at 1.07 is the best, most likely scenario for the slot to me. In early ADP from Best Balls and NFFC, Cook was clearly in the top group of four running backs. After the talk of a holdout (which has been extinguished after he reported to camp) his ADP has slipped.

While his injuries have been a concern, Cook is the last of the true three-down, workhorse running backs. He gives you a stud back to build off of as long as you grab Alexander Mattison a round early as a handcuff.

Other Possible Options: Derrick Henry, Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs

Round Two – 2.06 DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Arizona Cardinals

With the surge in CEH’s ADP, I have seen Hopkins take the biggest tumble down draft boards. No, I don’t agree nor understand.

However, I am going to take advantage of it. Hopkins enters one of the most explosive offenses with a second-year quarterback, Kyler Murray, ready to break out. He is arguably the most talented receiver in the league and is easily my second-best receiver going into the season for Fantasy Football.

Other Possible Options: Kenyan Drake, Chris Godwin, Travis Kelce

Round Three - 3.07 JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

I said in my Post-Hype Sleepers article that I am coming around on JuJu and love him at this price point. It really feels like there are only 25 or so studs this season. So to get a guy who has legit WR1 overall upside in the latter half of the third round is a great value.

Since I missed out on the elite tight ends, Zach Ertz was a possibility for me here. This is the greatest part of the Draft Wizard: it let me know that there was a 78% chance that he would be there with my next pick. There’s also a Draft Assistant that you can use during your live draft to give you the same probabilities.

Other Possible Options: D.J. Moore, Ertz, David Johnson

Round Four – 4.06 Zach Ertz, TE, Philadelphia Eagles

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Bingo! Ertz was still there for me. I know you will hear a lot about waiting on tight ends this year. I am trying to avoid the tight end roulette that tends to happen if you wait. In best ball leagues, by all means, go for it. But if I have to pick the starter each week there is just too much volatility in the lower half of the TE1 group.

I am not as enamored with Ertz this season with the Eagles grabbing more weapons (more on that later). I do think he gives the third safest floor of any tight end with 95-catch upside.

Other Possible Options: Chris Carson, Keenan Allen, Tyler Lockett

Round Five – 5.06 David Montgomery, RB, Chicago Bears

Montgomery was the overwhelming pick by all of the experts in the Fantasy Pros database for this slot. He was the last clear starting running back with 240 guaranteed touches. I’ve been snagging him quite a bit in this range since people were turned off by his efficiency issues.

I get those problems, but I will take volume over efficiency any day of the week. I also think the Bears offense will be better overall, giving Montgomery more scoring opportunities.

Other Possible Options: Dak Prescott, D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Boyd

Round Six – 6.07 Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals

Once again, the Draft Wizard to the rescue! As I’ve mentioned earlier this preseason, I want to make sure and secure one of the second tier of quarterbacks. On my previous pick, Prescott, Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, and Kyler were all still on the board. By using the Draft Wizard’s probability, there was more than an 85% chance that one of the four would be available with my next pick.

This allowed me to shore up my RB2 spot and still get a quarterback from my target tier. While every draft will be different and it is likely your home league would go different, you cannot understate this aspect of the Draft Wizard.

Other Possible Options: Jarvis Landry, Devin Singletary, Kareem Hunt

Round Seven – 7.06 Kareem Hunt, RB, Cleveland Browns

While it is not my goal, having your starting positions filled out by Round Seven is a nice luxury. You can strictly pick the best player available from there on out without reaching too much.

More importantly, it means I can already look for the highest upside. Kareem Hunt is the only running back that provides weekly, starting running back production but with top running back overall upside that you can get after Round Six.

In PPR leagues, Hunt should give you mostly RB2 stats. Should anything happen to Nick Chubb then you are looking at a league-winning, top-5 RB. I was kind of shocked he came back around to me.

Other Possible Options: Michael Gallup, Marvin Jones, James White

Round Eight – 8.07 Marvin Jones, WR, Detroit Lions

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The perennially under-rated Marvin Jones. In the last three seasons, Jones has averaged 4.4 catches, 63 yards and 0.6 touchdowns per game. That’s 14.3 PPR points per game, which extrapolates out to WR17 last season.

While I want upside with my later round picks, it is nice to slide in some super high-floor guys as well. Jones’ WR37 ADP is way too low at this point.

Other Possible Options: Marquise Brown, Ronald Jones, Diontae Johnson

Round Nine – 9.07 Kerryon Johnson, RB, Detroit Lions

Kerryon is another one of my post-hype sleepers. As I have been saying all off/pre-season, the rookie running backs are being glorified as if they were all picked in the top ten of the NFL Draft. D’Andre Swift is good, but Kerryon has shown that he is a stud when on the field.

Should Swift take a while to get up to speed or deal with injuries, I think Kerryon is a borderline RB1.

Other Possible Options: Mecole Hardman, Phillip Lindsay, Tevin Coleman

Round Ten – 10.06 Alexander Mattison, RB, Minnesota Vikings

I have to admit, I cheated on this one. BUT! That’s why the Draft Wizard is amazing! There was a 50/50 chance that Mattison would make it to me in Round Eleven, so I originally took Jalen Reagor. Mattison went two picks before me in the next round.

However, the Draft Wizard allows you to redo your previous picks. So I went back and picked Mattison to secure my starter in the Vikings’ offense, and…

Other Possible Options: Golden Tate, Duke Johnson, Jalen Reagor

Round Eleven – 11.07 Jalen Reagor, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

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Boom! I got both the guys that I wanted! Playing this game of chicken with the Draft Wizard is the best possible practice for the real thing. Obviously it’s not full-proof, but it gives you the best odds of what could happen.

Reagor will be getting special treatment of his own shortly, just know that I will end up as the highest ranker of him on the Fantasy Pros site. I think he has WR1 upside and a WR3 floor. Carson Wentz will use his top receiver if he has one; he just hasn’t due to injuries. Reagor will be that guy.

Other Possible Options: Zack Moss, Tony Pollard, Curtis Samuel

Round Twelve – 12.06 Preston Williams, WR, Miami Dolphins

This will be the lowest you see Williams go for the rest of the preseason now that he is cleared to play. The main knock on Williams was that he wouldn’t be ready to go after tearing his ACL last year. Well if he is cleared by August 4th, that sounds like he is full strength.

While Williams’ numbers in a shortened rookie season were solid (64-catch, 856-yard, 6-touchdown pace), his film tells a different story. This guy can make all of the hard catches while running any route imaginable.

He is the epitome of a late-round flier: tons of upside, but you will know immediately if he’s not back to 100% and can drop him. Toss in two of the Dolphins' receivers already opting out (Allen Hurns and Albert Wilson) and Williams is set up for a strong target share.

Other Possible Options: Daniel Jones, Austin Hooper, Justin Jackson

Round Thirteen – 13.07 Chris Thompson, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Thompson is another high-upside injury risk that can be dropped quickly. That’s something that people lose track of with their Fantasy Football drafts: will their pick be droppable?

So let’s say I take Hooper here as a second tight end. First off, I shouldn’t need him with Ertz. Secondly, he will be the lead tight end in his offense no matter how poorly he starts the year. This means you might be compelled to hang on to him longer than necessary.

No one knows exactly how Thompson will be used in Jacksonville, especially with no preseason games. He also seems to get hurt quickly. So by the end of Week 2, you will know if Thompson is worth a roster spot. If not, you will be able to cut bait and pick up a different high-upside player.

Other Possible Options: Giovani Bernard, Ben Roethlisberger, Austin Hooper

Round Fourteen – 14.06 Dallas Goedert, TE, Philadelphia Eagles

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I love pairing Goedert with Ertz. Goedert is basically the Kareem Hunt of tight ends. He can provide some weekly value, but if Ertz gets hurt then he has Top-4 upside at the position.

Other Possible Options: Ben Roethlisberger, Jonnu Smith, Brandon Aiyuk

Post-Draft Analysis

The Draft Wizard gave me an ‘A’ grade of 95. I do caution people that the number grade should not be your overall goal, especially if you use kickers or team defenses.

Sometimes the Draft Wizard gets caught up on projections. For example, if you look at my bench vs. starters numbers, you see I easily lead the draft in starter points. However, I am lower in the bench area. This is due to me taking high upside guys instead of high floor.

I could have taken Ben Roethlisberger instead of Chris Thompson and that grade would have gone up. So while you want the Draft Wizard to give you a good grade, don’t get caught up if it’s not a 100.

I prefer to look at the analysis with regards to ADP: steals, values, reaches. Steals are seen as players you got two or more rounds after the Draft Wizard thinks they should have gone. Values are just one round later. Slight reaches are one round before their predicted spot and reaches are two rounds before.

My only slight reach was Mattison, which is exactly what I should do as a Cook owner. I drafted three values with Hunt, Jones, and Williams, which I even thought to myself it was just too late for them to be on the board.

Dallas Goedert was considered a steal and I am seeing it a lot. Since so many analysts are playing the late-tight end game, they are grabbing two or three high upside guys. Goedert’s upside is seen as lower since Ertz is there so he gets passed for the Jonnu Smith’s, Jack Doyle’s and Ian Thomas’ of the world.

Overall, I would love to roll with this team in a real league. I still do agree with the majority that this might be the worst draft slot this year. However, with proper patience, strategy, and preparation, you can still build a quality roster out of the draft. So go grab our rankings and give the Draft Wizard a spin!

Visit the F6P Fantasy Football page for more advice, including all 32 Fantasy Football Team Previews to get you prepared for the 2020 season

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