Welcome to the Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 1-14-22!
I started off last weeks article talking about NFL Football, and you may have guessed it but we are starting this weeks article just the same. This week I am not talking as much on Fantasy Football and I want to take a quick second to discuss the NFL playoffs, which kick off tomorrow.
You may or may not know, but I am from Chicago and therefore I have been born into being a Chicago Bears fan. For the better part of my life, I have struggled with the Bears organization and have only seen or at least remembered one Super Bowl appearance. That's happened while having to watch their arch-rivals to the north, the Green Bay Packers be so dominant the past 30 years while having back-to-back Hall of Fame Quarterbacks.
The reason I bring this up is that obviously the Bears are not in the Playoffs this year and I have no rooting aspect this season. Therefore I am looking for a new team to adopt for the playoffs. I am currently leaning on rooting for the Los Angeles Rams. But let me know what you guys think. Leave a comment below on who you are rooting for and your Super Bowl prediction.
Now let's get into the reason you came here, Dynasty Baseball content. In this weekly series, I will walk you through a few players worth buying and selling in your Dynasty Leagues.
Be sure to check out Dave's super deep Dynasty Rankings.
Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 1-14-22
Jesse Winker, OF, Cincinnati Reds
After a slower start to his career, Winker looked every part of a top outfielder in 2021. He finished as a top 50 outfielder in 5x5 roto leagues. He finished ahead of big names like Jorge Soler, Tommy Pham, Charlie Blackmon, and Wil Myers.
Winker's success in 2021 was due to the fact that he doesn't strike out a ton. He has a career 16.5% strikeout rate and finished better than that in 2021 with only a 15% strikeout rate. Winker has an advanced approach at the plate, he makes a ton of hard contact and walks more than the league average.
His 47% hard-hit rate ranks in the top 20% of the league and both his max and average exit velocity rank in the top 25% of the league. He also increased his launch angle, which would explain the career-high in home runs with 24 in only 110 games.
In 2021 he slashed 305/394/556 with career bests in both average and slugging. In addition, among all outfielders with 450+ plate appearances, Winker's 949OPS ranked third behind only Bryce Harper and Juan Soto. Furthermore his .251ISO ranked top ten amongst all outfielders with at least 450PA.
Winker also finished two shy of 150RBI+R with both career highs in runs batted in (71) and runs scored (77). In addition, his 57 extra-base hits in 2021 were also a career-high.
As you can see there are many reasons to like Winker and he is still only 28 years old, theoretically entering his prime years. Go and buy Winker in any league you are able to pry him away from his current owner.
Eric Lauer, LHP, Milwaukee Brewers
If I said to buy a Brewers starting pitcher after 2021, you would probably guess I'm talking about Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, or even Brandon Woodruff. However, I am talking about another starting pitcher for the Brewers. That's right, there is yet another starting pitcher in the Milwaukee rotation that I expect big things from in 2022 and beyond.
After a rough 2020 in which Lauer only made two starts and four appearances. He finished with 16 earned runs in only 11 innings pitched. However, the 26-year-old had a breakout season in 2021 and looked every bit of a middle-of-the-rotation arm as he finished as the 86th starting pitcher in roto leagues.
Lauer did have some outlying statistics that lead me to believe he has turned a corner from his time with the Padres. First, his 2021 xERA, xBA, and xwOBA all ranked better than the league average.
He also had a career-best ERA in 2021. Lauer also had a career-best in strikeout rate at 24% and a career-best 15.5% in strikeout to walk ratio. A lot of his success was due to him relying less on his fastball and more on his secondary offerings. He threw his curveball more than he ever has before.
His biggest improvement was with his change-up. He threw his change-up 11% of the time, whereas in years past he only threw his change-up four percent of the time.
Shaking up his pitch mix obviously generated better results and I would expect these results to continue. I could even see Lauer finishing as the Brewers 4th best starting pitcher and has the upside to finish as a top 75 starting pitcher in roto leagues. Lauer is someone that you should be able to buy with a relatively low price tag.
Jean Segura, 2B, Philadelphia Phillies
It is not often I recommend selling a top-of-the-order bat at a scare position but alas here we are. There are some things to like about Segura. He steals bases, hits for a high average, doesn't strike out often and gets on base regularly. However, there are reasons for concern going forward, signaling it might be time to sell.
First off, the speed. He failed to steal double-digit bases for the first time since his debut season in 2017 (excluding 2020). He has also failed to steal more than 20 bags in three straight seasons.
Segura also doesn't hit the ball hard, he ranks in the bottom 30th percent of the league in hard-hit rate, and his average exit velocity ranks in the bottom 16 percent of the league. He is also hitting the ball on the ground more, his 52% groundball rate is the highest its been since 2017. This resulted in Segura hitting into 16 double plays which was the 15th most amongst all qualified hitters and the second most amongst second basemen.
Segura ranked as the 23rd second baseman in 2021 5x5 roto league in 2021. I would expect that ranking to continue to decline and he could end up outside the top 30 in 2022. I would be looking to get out from under Segura while he still has value.
You can also check out last week's article.
Check out all the Fantasy Baseball content from this great group of writers.