Welcome to Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 1-21-22
Let's take a quick minute and talk about the UFC. How many UFC fans do we have in here? I am still a novice when it comes to the UFC. I just began watching the fights during the 2020 pandemic when all other sports were on hiatus.
There are several favorite fighters that I found myself rooting for. Right now my favorite fighter is Sugar Sean O' Malley. I also really like Amanda Nunes. Anyways the reason I bring this up is that there is another big Pay Per View UFC fight this Saturday night.
This month's main event is UFC 270 and has a Heavyweight bout of Francis Ngannou fighting the undefeated Ciryl Gane. Several other bouts are gaining excitement, such as the rubber match or third bout between Brandon Moreno and Deiveson Figueiredo. Let me know down in the comments if you are a fan of UFC and who do you think is winning the fights this weekend?
Now let's get into the baseball take and jump into this week's Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell.
Be sure to check out Nick's Dynasty Player of the Week, this week he features Cody Bellinger.
Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 1-21-22
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Willy Adames, SS, Milwaukee Brewers
Willy Adames was a part of a mid-season deal in 2021, in which he was shipped off to Milwaukee in late May. Adames was once upon a time a top prospect in the Tampa Bay system and was even ranked as high as a top ten overall prospect by Baseball America in 2017.
Prior to his trade to Milwaukee, Adames had two full seasons with only mediocre results. From 2018 to 2020 he appeared in 291 games and produced 38 home runs, scored 141 runs, and stole 12 bags.
One of Adames' biggest issue is his swing and miss concerns. He has never posted a K% rate below 25% and even saw his K rate inflate to 36%, which was the third-worst among all qualified hitters in 2020.
However, Adames was a different hitter once arriving in Milwaukee. Since the trade on May 21st, he hit 285 which is .20 points higher than his career average. While he also posted a 366 on-base percentage which is .30 points higher than his career OBP.
🗣🔥 GRAND SLAM WILLY ADAMES!!
🗣🔥 FOURTEEN UNANSWERED RUNS FROM THE BREWERS!!!
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) June 30, 2021
Furthermore, he cut his strikeout rate down to a somewhat respectable 25%, and his 886 OPS was also a career-best. Flat-out, Adames was not also a different hitter while in Milwaukee he was a confident hitter. He was chasing fewer pitches out of the zone as he cut his O-Swing% down to highly respectful 30.4%, which ranked as the 63rd best amongst all qualified hitters during that time.
Currently, Adames has an ADP of 131 and is the 18th shortstop taken off the board. So his price tag remains relatively low. I would expect his value to far exceed his ADP in 2022 and beyond. Buy where possible.
Reid Detmers, LHP, Los Angeles Angels
The Angel's first-round pick in the 2020 Amateur Draft, got off to a quick start. However, things came crashing down once he reached the majors. Detmers made five starts for the Angels in 2021 and finished with a 7.40ERA as he gave up 17 earned runs in only 20 IP.
Reid did have success in the minors before his promotion. Across both Double and Triple-A, Detmers made 14 starts and logged 62IP. He had a 3.19 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 108K to only 19 walks. That was good enough for a 42 K% rate. He had 97 Ks in only 54 IP at Double-A, and his 16.2 K/9 ranked as the top in the league.
Even if you look back at his time at Louisville University, Detmers excelled as a starter. In three seasons he had a 3.20 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 294 Ks in 191 IP. You can see why he was being touted as the best college arm in the 2020 draft.
Reasons why I believe he can bounce back when he gets his next shot at the major league level. He did a good job of limiting hard contact. His 33.3hardhit% rate ranked in the top 100 amongst all pitchers with at least 50BBE. He also had success with both of his breaking pitches, especially his slider. He threw his slider 24% of the time and used it with great success, measured by his 36% put away rate.
Furthermore, Detmers' struggles could have been due to his fast progression through the minor leagues. Even as a college arm out of the draft, Detmers only logged 62IP in his minor league career. Detmers currently has an ADP outside of the top 400. Needless to say, his price tag is in the dumpsters. I would try to buy while the value remains like that.
Evan Longoria, 3B, San Francisco Giants
Evan has been one of the best at the hot corner over the past decade. Even dating back to his rookie season with Tampa Bay in 2008. Evan had a bit of a renaissance year in 2021. Prior to his injury in early June, Evan slashed 280/376/516 with nine home runs and 30 RBIs in 186 plate appearances.
Last year he had an 833OPS which was his best OPS since 2016 and his second-best since 2013. His 54% hard-hit rate in 2021 was the highest it's been in the Statcast era. He also increased his hard-hit rate by almost 10% from 2020. Furthermore, his 54.5% Hard hit rate ranked 7th in all of baseball among hitters with at least 250 plate appearances. It was also the highest amongst all third basemen with 250 plate appearances.
Evan Longoria still doing it. pic.twitter.com/wqI45c6hlB
— Jared Carrabis (@Jared_Carrabis) September 14, 2021
Not only that but he increased his launch angle by five degrees and it's the second-highest it's been since 2016. In addition, his 17.3% HR/FB rate was the highest it has been since 2012. He also went back to hitting the ball to all fields and stopped pulling the ball by lowering his pull rate to the lowest in his career.
As you can see there are a lot of reasons to like Longoria going into 2022. I would be looking to capitalize on his renaissance 2021 season and sell while the increased value is still high.
Check out last week's Buy or Sell article.