Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 1-28-22

by Jason Beckner
Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell

Welcome to the Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 1-28-22!

This past week we had the Baseball Hall of Fame (HOF) inductions and there were seven players in the 2022 class. The biggest name in this year’s class is David “Big Papi” Ortiz. However, there are other notable names such as Minnie Minoso and Buck O’Neil. Congratulations to the whole class of 2022 Hall of Fame inductees.

However, there was still one player that did not get into the HOF yet again. This player also happens to be the best hitter in the modern era of baseball (go figure). That’s right I am talking about Barry Bonds. The seven-time MVP, 14-time All-Star, eight-time Gold Glove winner, 12-time Silver Slugger, two-time batting champ, and oh yeah the career home run leader.

Some would argue that it was his “supposed” steroid use. However, I do not believe that should stop him from getting into the HOF. There are already other “supposed” steroid users in the HOF. I could sit here and list off a million reasons why Bonds belongs in the HOF but you can go look at his Baseball Reference page for yourself.

However, I will leave you with this one eye-popping stat. In his 2004 season, Barry Bonds had 263 walks. 120 of those walks were intentional, which was three times the amount of strikeouts he had that year (41). BARRY BONDS BELONGS IN THE HOF!

Now let’s get into this week’s Dynasty Baseball buy or sell

Be sure to check out Dave’s 500+ Dynasty Rankings.

Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 1-28-22

Buy

Akil Baddoo, OF, Detroit Tigers

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The former top prospect and, second-round pick for the Minnesota Twins, was never given his fair shot. The Twins essentially gave up on Baddoo when they did not add him to their 40-man roster after the 2020 season. This made him eligible for the 2020 Rule 5 Draft. Without any hesitation, the Tigers took Baddoo with the third pick in the Rule 5 draft.

Once Baddoo was drafted by Detroit, he had to stay with the Tigers big league squad and he proved he belonged. In 461 PA he slashed 259/330/436 with 13 HR and 18 SB. He has a legit power-speed skill set. As a 22-year-old he was two home runs shorts of a 15-15 season and he was probably one of the biggest power-speed breakouts in 2021 not named Cedric Mullins.

It wasn’t just the stolen bases that stood out when looking at the speed numbers. He also compiled seven triples, which were the second-most in all of baseball in 2021. Furthermore, his sprint speed ranked in the 91st percentile in 2021.

Some improvements I would like to see for Baddoo to take that next step would be to have better success against lefties. He only had a .523 OPS against lefties versus his respectfully .841 OPS against righties.

I would also like to see him raise his on-base percentage to the .350-range which would then obviously increase the stolen base chances. If that is the case I could easily see 20/20 seasons in Baddoo’ s future. This is why I would be looking to buy Akil now while his price tag remains highly undervalued.

 

Jake Cronenworth, 2B, San Diego Padres

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The 28-year-old utility man is proving his bat belongs in the line-up every day, and after a strong 2021 season, he will likely be cemented as the Padres starting second baseman for years to come. Even with a small sample size of 835 PA, there are several reasons why you should be looking to buy in on Cronenworth.

First, he has an elite approach at the plate. He hardly ever strikes out, displayed by his career 14% strikeout rate. In 2021 his 13.7% whiff rate is ranked in the 97th percentile, and he cut it down from 16.7% in 2020. In addition, his chase rate of 23% is ranked as the 30th best in all of baseball. Jake can flat out hit, he even hit for the cycle in 2021.

I also really like his opportunity in 2022. According to Roster Resource, Cronenworth will be batting in the three-hole and sandwiched between Tatis Jr and Manny Machado. He not only has the most experience but has also had the best success when batting third. In 280 plate appearances as the number three hitter, Jake has a .278 average, 10 bombs, 47 runs, and 27 extra-base hits.

Another huge advantage that Cronenworth has is his multi-position eligibility. Depending on what site you play on, Jake qualifies at three different positions (1B, 2B, SS). That type of roster flexibility goes a long way in Dynasty, especially in deeper leagues.

Jake currently has an NFBC ADP outside of the top 100 (115), which signifies to me that he can be bought relatively low. I would be looking to buy in leagues that use OBP in place of average.

Sell

Ian Happ, OF, Chicago Cubs

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Unfortunately, this one pains me to write. I am being unbiased in this situation. I have first-hand experience when it comes to Ian Happ as I am a die-hard Cubs fan. Not just by demographic, but by choice. Let’s take a look at why I am out on Ian Happ.

First off the 27-year-old continues to have swing and miss concerns. Striking out has always been an issue for Happ, however many have thought that was behind him when he cut his K% down to 25% in 2019.  However, since 2019, Happ is right back to swinging and missing. In 2021 his strikeout rate jumped back up to 30%.

Of all qualified hitters that hit at least 25 HR in 2021, Happ’s 29.2K% rate ranked as the 11th worst and fourth-worst amongst all outfielders. 2021 was essentially Happ’s second full season and his strikeout rate was both at, or worse than 30K% (36K% in 2018 & 30% in 2021).

If we take it a step further and look at his strikeout rate in a 50PA rolling window. This is alarming to see in a graph.

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It is not just the strikeout rate that concerns me, it’s also his on-base skills. In 2021 he slashed 226/323/434, which is far from impressive. His BA, OBP, and OPS  were all career worsts. The biggest concern for me is the OPS. His .757 OPS ranked 90th amongst all qualified hitters. The problem is that OPS has been Happ’s strongest skill. He hits for power and gets on base, which was not the case in 2021.

Happ did hit 25 HR with 66 RBI and stole nine bags, which does hold value, especially in deeper leagues. Therefore you can still get value back for Happ and I would be looking to sell now.

 



You can also check out last weeks article.

 

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