Welcome to the 3-1-21 edition of the Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell series.
As of Friday I have completed my draft for the 2021 The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational (TGFBI) satellite league. The TGFBI is an amazing fantasy competition that pits everybody and anybody in the fantasy baseball industry against each other in a giant contest for the ultimate bragging rights.
The contest is organized by Justin Mason of FWFB. In order to compete in TGFBI all contestants must make a one-time donation to charity. So it’s a win-win for everyone involved.
I am currently in a satellite league which allows me to compete against other players, with the winners of the satellite leagues being invited to the 2022 TGFBI.
The TGFBI is a full redraft format. 2021 marks my first year competing in the contest. To say that I am excited is an understatement. Good luck to all the contestants of both the satellites and the official leagues.
Now let’s take a look at some Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell candidates. Similar to the stock market, in Dynasty Baseball you want to Sell high and Buy low.
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Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 3-1-21
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Buy
Alec Bohm, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies
Alec was drafted third overall in the 2018 MLB Amateur Draft by the Philadelphia Phillies. Being drafted third overall should tell you a little about how highly touted Bohm was coming out of Wichita State University.
Bohm debuted for Philadelphia in 2020 and broke out in a big way. He slashed his way to .338/.400/.481 and had an OPS of .881 yet finished with only four HR.
The long ball has not been his strong suit as he only has a 162 game average of 15 HR in his young career.
In 2020 according to Statcast Bohm ranked in the 84th percentile in hard-hit %, 73rd percentile in Exit Velocity and the 86th percentile of xBA (expected batting average).
Additionally, he has the ability to drive the ball to all fields as he only has a 29.4 pull %, while still maintaining a 21.4LD%(line drive %)
Every Alec Bohm hit from 2020 pic.twitter.com/oMiBqmOf40
— Ben Silver - Nothing if not Inconsistent (@notinconsistent) September 28, 2020
If Bohm decides to commit to increasing his 4.8-degree launch angle and with a move to the three or four hole in the order, I could see him becoming a 20 HR+ 200/R+RBI player that continues to hit for a high average.
Nico Hoerner, 2B/SS, Chicago Cubs
Another year, another draft when the Chicago Cubs take one of the top college hitters in the draft. Nico was drafted 24th overall in the 2018 MLB Amateur Draft out of Stanford University.
Nico takes more of a contact over power approach at the plate and can handle velocity well. He holds a career 16.8K% and a 7.2BB%. He can drive the ball to all fields displayed by a low pull% of 26.7%.
One thing that Nico does excel at is speed, Statcast data ranked in the 93rd percentile in sprint speed in 2020. The speed was put on display at his time at Stanford when he stole 18 bases in 168 games. He also swiped 15SB, (top 3) in 40 games in the Cape Cod league in the summer of 2017.
Although a small sample size (68gms) his time in the majors has been a slight disappointment. In my opinion a lot of that as to do with his inconsistent playing time. Which has caused him to not get consistent at-bats to settle in at the dish.
His time in the minors was anything but a disappointment. He was able to slash .330/.421/.512 in his time in the low levels. While also having a 186wRC+ in 2018 and 131wRC+ in 2019.
Now in 2021, Nico has entered spring training competing to win the second base job. There are reports out of Mesa that he has hit the weight room to bulk up and has added size.
Nico Hoerner comparison shots, from late 2019 (via @MBDChicago), and from this week (via @MLBastian). pic.twitter.com/TTqQFOVWfd
— Bleacher Nation (@BleacherNation) February 23, 2021
Nico has been reworking his swing and has opened up his stance to use his athleticism in hopes of driving the ball more.
I can realistically see Nico start to shine in the starting lineup. Where he could hit for a high average, steal bases and score runs. In his peak, I envision a middle infielder that hits in the 290 range with 80 R, 15 HR/15 SB
Sell
Teoscar Hernandez, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
While many players had a year to forget in 2020. The same could not be said for Hernandez when he broke out in 2020. So much so he even received MVP votes. His 2020 stat line is definitely eye-popping and makes you question why sell now?
He was able to slash 289/340/579 with an OPS of 919. The counting stats were nothing to scoff at either. Hernandez was able to compile 33R/16HR/34RBI/6SB while having a career high 143wRC+ in 50 games.
However, when you look deeper, the plate disciple was awful. He racked up 63 strikeouts in 207 PA which equates to a 30.4K%. That ranked top 12 in all of MLB in 2020. Not only does he strikeout at a high level, Hernandez doesn’t walk either. He held a 6.8BB% which ranks as a top 30 worst walk rate in 2020.
Aside from the plate discipline metrics that make you tremble Another red-flag with Hernandez is his age (28yo). One thing that Dynasty baseball players want to avoid is the mid-career breakout season. Which was exactly the case with Hernandez in 2020.
2020 was a small sample size and his numbers outline more of a 50 game hot streak than that of an improved hitter. Especially when his batting average has never been higher than 265 at the major league level.
I envision that with a full season he will fall back to his career slash line of 245/309/492 and the strikeouts will continue to increase at a high level. The time to sell is now! While many owners will be looking to buy-in on his over-the-top 2020 stat line.
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