Welcome to the 3-22-21 edition of Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell.
I am sure that most people reading this are here because you are in some format of a Dynasty Baseball league. Dynasty is a very different animal than the standard redraft league. There are many different strategies that come with Dynasty, there is more emphasis on trading and roster building, not just for the current day but also for the future.
Currently, my favorite dynasty league is my 30 team industry league (D1S30Rock). In this league, teams roster 60 players, so there are 1800 players rostered total. To say that the league is deep is an understatement.
If you are in a shallow dynasty league 12-15 teams, I highly recommend jumping into the deep end and getting into a deeper league as you will find the rewards are sweeter.
Now let’s take a look at some players that are worth buying and selling in Dynasty leagues, both shallow and deep.
Be sure to check Dave Eddy’s super deep 900+ player Dynasty Rankings.
Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 3-22-21
You can also check out John Albright’s top 150 prospects rankings.
Alek Manoah, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Manoah was drafted 11th overall in the 2019 MLB Amateur Draft, out of West Virginia University. The big right-hander (6’6’ 260lb) is quickly becoming one of my favorite pitching prospects.
Currently ranked as Toronto’s 7th prospect via MLB Pipeline, and ranked 460th overall according to Dave’s dynasty rankings.
He has made two appearances this spring including one start, and both have been dominant. Including a stretch against the Yankees when he struck out seven hitters in a row across 3 perfect innings.
Not having a minor league season in 2020 has slightly slowed his development (like many other minor leaguers). In his young professional career, he only has 268IP across his time at WVU and low-A ball.
In 2019 he made 6 starts for Toronto’s short-A affiliate and was able to ring up 27 batters in 17IP which was good enough for a 40K%. His xFIP and FIP were also a standout out at 2.45 and 2.48 respectively.
Alek features a three-pitch mix of Fastball, Slider, and Changeup. The Fastball being the best of the three offerings, it sits 94-96 and can touch 97-98. The slider is his best secondary offering that has good late movement. He is able to throw all 3 pitches for strikes with ease and has above-average control.
Alek Manoah, Wicked Changeup and Slider.
Filmed with a potato. pic.twitter.com/Pi9UBXolEM
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 14, 2021
The 23-year-old Manoah is poised to breakout in 2021. Most likely to start the year at Double-A, he should make quick work of the competition there. Forcing Toronto to make the call and he could debut mid-late season 2021 joining fellow prospect standout Pearson on the mound in Toronto.
He is giant out on the mound, which allows him to intimidate hitters and pile up the strikeouts with a high K%. I can see him being a high-end SP2 with 200Ks+ and able to maintain low ratios with 10-15 wins a year in his prime.
Be sure to check out last weeks installment of Buy or Sell.
Joc Pederson, OF, Chicago Cubs
Pederson is someone I’m sure most readers are familiar with, he has big-time power from the left side of the plate with swing and miss concerns. Pederson recently signed with the Chicago Cubs in this past free agency and is slated to take on a full-time role in left field for the Cubs.
The power has never been in question. He has always been in the top 90th percentile in exit velocity. Since 2017 he has 79HR total, which is good enough for 56th best amongst all qualified hitters in that time.
His time in LA was spent mostly on the strong side of a platoon. However, there are reports coming out of Chicago that he is set to be let free from the platoon and begin to receive regular at-bats. In addition, there are only a total of five lefty starting pitchers in the NL central currently. So the at-bats are going to be there in 2021.
With the extra at-bats and the opportunities against lefties, I believe that he will be able to make the necessary adjustments to not only hit for avg but also see the power numbers translate. He has seen small successes against lefties in the past (albeit in a small sample size). In 2015 he had an OPS of 691 with 6HR in 116PA. Then again in 2020, he batted .333 in 10PA
Joc is already settling in nicely with his new team and has been red hot this spring. He is currently slugging 1.192 with 5HR in 32PA.
— Cubs Zone ™️ (@CubsZone) March 6, 2021
Joc is still only 28 years old and in the prime years of his career. He will still be able to contribute elite power numbers, and I would not be surprised if he was able to provide 35-45HR and 100RBI with a full workload for the next several years.
Zack Wheeler, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
Wheeler a former 1st round draft pick, was a highly touted prospect in the San Francisco Giants systems. Coming up through minors Wheeler lived up to the hype. After being traded to the Mets in a 2011 deadline deal for Carlos Beltran, he was instantly ranked as the Mets No, 1 overall prospect.
Once in the Mets minor system, Wheeler maintained a 9+ K/9 and his BB rate decreased from 14.5% in 2010 to 9.3% in 2013. While able to induce groundballs at a high percent.
He debuted with the Mets in 2013 and maintained solid ratio numbers with a sub 4 ERA and 1.36WHIP. However, the strikeouts were underwhelming with only a 19K% and less than a K per 9 (7.5K/9). Since 2018 he only has 5 starts in which he complied double-digit strikeouts.
Now with the Phillies (signed as a free agent in the 2019 offseason). In 2020 the ERA (2.92) and WHIP (1.17) were excellent. However, the K% was abysmal, his 18.4K% ranked 7th worst amongst all qualified pitchers.
When looking at SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA) Wheeler ranked the 20th worst in SIERA for 2020 with a 4.07(anything above 3.90 is rated below average). Wheeler has never had a SIERA below 3.50 ( 3.25 is considered great).
A lot of his struggles and inconsistencies are a result of his pitch mix. While he has the FB velocity (94th percentile), he tends to leave the fastball over the plate and lacks movement. His Curveball has a high whiff% but it lacks the movement (67th percentile in CB spin) that is needed to be a good put-away pitch.
With the low strikeout totals and the inconsistencies with his command. He is going to return more SP3 or SP4 type numbers so I would be looking to sell now.
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