Dynasty Baseball

Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 4-12-21

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Welcome to the 4-12-21 edition of Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell.

I would like to take a quick moment to self-promote. If you haven’t already, I highly advise you to check out The On Deck Circle Podcast, our new show on the Fantasy Six Pack Podcast Network. The podcast features Dave Eddy (@CorporalEddy), Nick Zaniboni (@nzaniboni93), and myself (@JRBecks) as we discuss every and anything related to Dynasty Baseball. Whether you are new to Dynasty Baseball or are a seasoned vet, I highly encourage you to give it a listen.

Episodes air every Tuesday night at 8 PM EST. You can catch us on The Fantasy Six Pack YouTube channel or wherever you stream your favorite podcasts.

That’s enough self-promo, lets get to the reason you came here. Let’s take a look at some players worth buying and selling in Dynasty leagues.

Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 4-12-21

Buy

Joe Musgrove, RHP, San Diego Padres

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In my opinion, Musgrove is the perfect candidate for the same face new place and the change of scenery cliche. Musgrove was traded from the Pittsburgh Pirates (arguably the worst team) to the San Diego Padres (World Series aspirations) in the 2020 off-season.

His three years in Pittsburgh was nothing to overlook. He increased his K% from 20.6% in 2018 to an amazing 33.1% in 2020.  Also from 2018 to 2020 he amassed 312 Ks in 324 IP which is good enough for a tick higher than one K per nine (9.52 K/9).

It wasn’t just his time in Pittsburgh, his whole career he has had the strikeout capability. Including his time in the minor leagues. The 2015 season stands out as he was able to strike out 26% of hitters he faced.

If you needed any further evidence on Musgrove’s strikeout upside: since 2015 he has a 29 CSW% (called strikes+whiffs/total pitches). That ranks in the top 50 for all qualified pitchers, and that is better than players such as Jose Berrios, Lucas Giolito, Patrick Corbin, and even Trevor Bauer. Clearly, he is no stranger to striking out hitters.

 

It’s not just the strikeout numbers that I like about Musgrove, he also has advanced command. He has a career 5.8 BB% which ranks as top 30 among all qualified pitchers since 2015.

Now with the Padres, he is someone that I can really see his value take off. He is now on a winning team and surrounded by elite-level pitchers in that rotation. I could envision Musgrove contributing 12-15 wins plus 175+ Ks per season, for the next few seasons, and for those reasons I am buying.

 

Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins

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Buxton is a player that many people are tired of waiting on for the breakout to come since being drafted 2nd overall in the 2012 MLB Amateur Draft by the Minnesota Twins. He has always had the stigma of being the Twins next face of the franchise.

Buxton was a true five-category player with his time in the Twins minor league system. In 1604PA he slashed 299/375/500 with 45HR 199RBI 283R 105SB. Which equates to a pace of 101 R, 16 HR, 71 RBI, and 38 SB for a 575 PA season.

One of the biggest concerns with Buxton has been his injury concerns. Since joining the big league club in 2015 he only has one season with more than 500PA. Now in 2021 there has been conversations with the front office and Buxton to try and limit his defensive mentality to try and alleviate the injuries that occur in the field.

It’s not just the speed that has come to fruition in the past several seasons. In both 2019 and 2020, he has ten or more HR, including 13HR in only 39games in 2020. The evolving power numbers come as no shock, in 2019 Buxton had a max exit velo of 113.6 which was in the top 9% of the league. Then in 2020, he ranked in the 85th percentile for exit velo with a .543 xSLG, ranking in the top 7% of the league.

In 2021 Buxton is picking up right where he left off in 2020. So far this season he has 4HR, 5RBI, 1SB with an OPS+ of 356! One of those home runs flew 451ft with an exit velo of 114.1mph.

If you can’t tell, I am totally on board with Buxton’s continued success. I fully expect the numbers to continue to grow as he is now entering his prime athletic seasons. I would not be shy by saying I project Buxton join the 20/20 club. He could even hit 30/30 if he remains healthy.

 

Sell

Cavan Biggio, 2B, Toronto Blue Jays

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If the last name sounds familiar it’s because it should, Cavan is the son of Hall of Famer Craig Biggio. Unfortunately, Cavan lacks a truly elite hit tool his old man had. Toronto’s 5th round pick in 2016 has consistently been ranked as one of Toronto’s top prospects.

Since Biggio joined the Toronto organization, the OBP continued to be an above-average skill for Biggio as his OBP never fell below .340. However, his batting average never eclipsed .292. Meaning he has an advanced plate approach for drawing walks.

Biggio can be an asset in OBP leagues if you look at the advanced stats there are several things that point to a below-average hitter. First of all, he doesn’t make good contact, his Brl% has been at or near the bottom half of the league including only a 5 Brl% in 2020 which only ranked in the 27th percentile.

The hard-hit rate is another metric that has me concerned. Biggio is not tearing the cover of the ball. In 2019, his HardHit% was only 39.9 and then fell further in 2020 down to 30.8% which was in the 13th percentile in all of MLB.

When looking at a lot of the expected metrics he struggles to be even in the top half of the league. His xBA, xSLG, xwOBA, have all decreased every year since 2019. Cavan is someone that is going to walk a lot, make soft contact, and struggle to hit for a high average. He is someone that I would be looking to sell even in OBP formats.

 



Be sure to check out last week’s Buy or Sell article.


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About Jason Beckner

Jason is based in Chicago. He is a baseball junkie. He eats, sleeps, & breathes baseball. Has a passion for dynasty formatted leagues. All opinions expressed are that of his own. You can follow Jason on twitter at @JRBecks

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