Dynasty Baseball

Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 4-26-21

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Welcome to the 4-26-21 edition of Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell.

Dynasty Baseball leagues offer more of a challenge when structuring your rosters versus a redraft format, as most of the top talents is all rostered. Therefore, teams are left to trade their players in order to re-structure their rosters. However, who to trade and when to trade them can be difficult questions for some owners.

This article series will help you find several players each week either worth trading for (buying) or worth trading away (selling). Be sure to check back every Monday, as I will be outlining both major league players and prospects. Let’s jump right in and take a look at this week’s edition.

Be sure to check out last week’s Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell.

Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 4-26-21

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Buy

Tyler Mahle, RHP, Cincinnati Reds

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The 22-year-old righty from California was drafted in the 7th round of the 2013 MLB Amateur Draft by the Cincinnati Reds. Since being drafted he has had a typical career patch through the Reds minor league system. However, one thing that has set him apart from the rest: his control. From 2013 to 2017 he never had a BB% higher than 6.5%.

Near the end of 2020, Tyler stopped throwing his curve and change-up. He has started to rely more heavily on his slider and split finger. This gives me the impression that the breakout we saw in 2020 is for real. We could even see the breakout and growth continue.

The change in pitch mix has really accelerated the K%. We saw it jump from 23% in 2019, 30% in 2020, and now at an all-time high of 38.8% in 2021,  94th percentile of the league. In addition, Tyler has also seen a steady decrease in both xBA and xSLG since 2019. His xBA currently sits at .154, 12th best in all of baseball. Meanwhile, his xSLG is only .269 and that ranks as 24th overall. I would project Mahle to contribute 10-15W with 150K+ while maintaining low ratios for the next several seasons.

You should definitely check out Dave’s super deep Dynasty Rankings.

Austin Meadows, OF, Tampa Bay Rays

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Austin Meadows is yet another quality asset the Rays acquired during the fleecing of the San Diego Pirates during 2018’s Chris Archer trade. Meadows, the former 9th overall pick in the 2013 MLB Amateur Draft, can offer a team the highly sought-after power and speed combo. His 60-grade speed was really put on display in 2015, when he swiped 21 bags in 28 attempts. Meadows then followed that up with 17 more in 2016 and 28 more through 2017 and 2018 combined.

While the speed has always been a part of his arsenal. The power has taken longer to develop. He has only hit 46HR in 457games. Meadows only had two seasons in which he had more than ten in the minor leagues. However, in his first full season with the Rays, he had a major breakout. Meadows finished with 33 HR, 89 RBI, and 12 SB, which earned him his first All-Star nod and even received MVP votes.

Meadows did have a bit of a downfall in 2020 when he only hit .205 with 4HR & 7RBI. He did test positive for COVID-19 early in the season which could be a reason for some of the regression. He is looking to rebound to his 2019 ways this year, and he currently looks like he is on his way. While it is still a small sample size, Meadows is currently ranked in the top 15% of xSLG, xwOBA, & Barrel%.

In addition, he is also limiting his chase rate as he ranks in the 84th percentile, while also walking at a 17% rate. All that while also ranking in the 80th percentile in exit velocity. Meadows looks poised to rebound in a big way. He should get back to producing more 25HR+ seasons with 160/R+RBI and 15SB seasons.

Sell

Patrick Corbin, LHP, Washington Nationals

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Patrick Corbin: the once-Diamondback who signed a very lucrative contract (6yr/$140M) with the Nationals in 2019. Off the heels of an All-Star season in 2018, when he went 11-7 with 246K in 200 IP, the big signing for Washington has yet to live up to his contract in first few seasons. Upon his arrival in Washington, Corbin quietly started to regress; every year since 2018 his numbers have fallen further. It has gotten to the point where his contract feels like a straight-up robbery of the Nationals, taking home $24M in 2021. Yet another cautionary tale proving that teams should be paying for future production not past.

Let’s take a look at some of his regressions. First off, his K% his way down. In 2018, he had a 30.8K%, but this has been nearly cut in half since to 18% so far in 2021. The Hard Hit % is another regression that is not appealing. He has not been able to limit hard contact. In 2018 his HardHit% was only 35.6%. This has steadily increased every year all the way up to 46.3% in 2021.

If that’s not enough, his velocity has taken a hit, too. It’s still early, but his fastball velocity is down almost 2 mph. Meanwhile, it appears he is relying more on his fastball and changeup, where in the past he relied more heavily on sinker and slider. If you need yet another reason to sell now, Corbin’s expected stats are very depressing. His .415 xwOBA is highly inflated, and his xERA is at an eye popping 7.04. Both of these fall in the bottom 7% of the league.


As you can see, the regression is real. It appears that this slide will continue into 2021. Get out while you can.


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About Jason Beckner

Jason is based in Chicago. He is a baseball junkie. He eats, sleeps, & breathes baseball. Has a passion for dynasty formatted leagues. All opinions expressed are that of his own. You can follow Jason on twitter at @JRBecks

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  1. Pingback: Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 5-3-21 - Fantasy Six Pack

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