Dynasty Baseball

Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 5-17-21

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Welcome to the 5-17-21 edition of Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell.

Aside from baseball and Fantasy Baseball, another one of my passions is craft beer. I have been drinking and even home brewing craft beer for almost ten years now. I have a strong passion for the time and effort these different Micro and even Nano-breweries put into making these over-the-top delicious adult beverages.

In addition, I highly encourage you to branch out and pick up a six-pack of craft beer the next time you are perusing the beer aisle.

There is even an app that logs the different beers you have drank, also allowing you to rate and review them. The app is called Untappd and can be found in both the iOS and google play stores. Feel free to follow me on that platform as well (username: JRBecks) to see what beers I’m currently enjoying as well as what others are drinking.

This brings me to my point. Every week during the intro in this series I will share my “beer of the week” just as a way to promote small or local businesses and possibly turn others onto different beers.

Beer of the Week

M-43 Tart Strawberry made by Old Nation Brewing Co. in Williamston, Michigan. It is a New England Style IPA

Be sure to check out last week’s Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell.

Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 5-17-21

Buy

Huascar Ynoa, RHP, Atlanta Braves

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Another electric arm in the Braves system. This time, however, he came over from the Twins in a 2017 deadline deal that sent Jamie Garcia packing to Minnesota. The young 22-year-old still remains green in both his age and his experience.

He spent most of his minor league career at rookie and low levels, as he made his professional stateside debut at only age 17. By the age of 20 he made it to advanced A, but he was still three years younger than his competition. However in 2019 he really began to take off and rose four minor league levels, and eventually made his debut in the Braves pen as a 20-year-old.

Ynoa has always had a knack for striking out batters. Displayed by his 389 punchouts in the minors. Including a stretch in which he fanned 131 in 116IP in Single-A. Then again in 2019 across three levels including Triple-A he struck out another 110 in 97IP.

He has an electric arm that creates big-time velocity. He has made adjustments to his delivery and raised his arm slot which allows him to get better movement and precision on his pitches. So far it appears to be working.

Ynoa features a four-pitch mix of fastball, slider, sinker, and change-up. He relies more heavily on his fastball and slider combo. His fastball has great velocity and sits 95-97 which ranks in the 92nd percentile. His slider is his bread and butter. he uses the slider almost 50% of the time and it is a true put-away pitch. Recently in 2020 he added the sinker but has only found mild success with it.

So far in 2021 Ynoa is off to a hot start. In his seven starts, he is 4-1 with a 2.23 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and 44Ks. I would be looking to buy Ynoa as he appears to have won a rotation spot for the Braves and I believe his hot start will only continue to get better as he gets more experience and seasoning.

Fransisco Lindor, SS, New York Mets

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This might be your one true opportunity to buy low on a perennial all-star and top ten fantasy asset, at a low price. It is rare to see fantasy studs such as Lindor have these types of struggles, especially early in the season. That, combined with Lindor being on a new team in 2021, has many fantasy players and owners cause for concern.

What is all the concern about you ask? Well, let’s take a deeper look at some of his struggles. First of all the biggest glaring struggle is his hitting, currently hitting below the Mendoza line and at an abysmal 197. Even his xBA is down to 223. It keeps getting worse too as his wOBA is only 274 while is xwOBA is only 314. There was even a stretch where he was 0/26 at the plate.

Lindor currently only has five extra-base hits and only three of those five are home runs. It’s clear to see why his slugging is all the way down to 291 which ranks as the eighth-worst amongst all qualified hitters.

As you can see the struggles are real right now for Lindor. However, let’s take a look at what has gone right for Lindor and why it’s worth the investment. Even through these struggles, he continues to have excellent bat-to-ball skills. He isn’t striking out a ton, which signifies he isn’t pressing at the plate and forcing his approach. He remains patient and is drawing more walks than he has in the past.

Meanwhile, his BABIP is only 211 which is way under the league average of 300, clearly, he is getting bad luck on the balls he is putting in play.  Aside from bad luck, he is still making similar contact as in years past. As there is no dip in his exit velocity. Nor is he chasing at balls out of the zone. Both his chase% and O-swing% are lower than in years past.

Furthermore, the talent is just too good to ignore. In my opinion, he is on the brink of breaking out of the slump and will be back to contributing his usual 30/20 seasons. I would be trying to pry Lindor away from the current owner.

Sell

Yermin Mercedes, DH, Chicago White Sox

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One of the biggest surprises of the 2021 season so far has been the emergence of the White Sox new DH. Currently, through 34 games he is slashing 361/406/555 with 5HR 22RBI and 13R which puts him on pace for 24HR 101RBI and 60R.

Those projections are for a hitter that has never hit more than 20HR or has more than 65RBI in his career, even though most of that is in the minor leagues. You may be wondering why sell someone that is producing so well? This is a great sell-high moment.

Yermin has always had advanced bat-to-ball skills. Displayed by his career 16K% and he has never had more than 70 strikeouts in a single season. Furthermore, he has a career batting average of 302 in eight minor league seasons.

However, I do not have the confidence Yermin is able to continue this pace for an extended period of time. This is a player that is now part of his third MLB organization in ten years. That doesn’t count his two stints with independent leagues.

A lot of his current success can be credited to simple luck. His BABIP is currently at an egregiously inflated 409 which ranks as the 5th best in baseball. Meanwhile, his wOBA is at 413 which ranks in the top 5% of the league, but his xwOBA is only hovering at 363.

While there is no question the hitting tool is advanced, but he is still struggling to make a lot of hard contact. His exit velo only ranks in the 37th percentile and his hardhit% ranks in the 22nd percentile.



As you can see, there is some reason for concern. In my opinion, the regression is not just guaranteed, but the regression may happen sooner than expected. I would be trying to trade Yermin now while the sell high window remains wide open.


Check out the rest of our 2021 Fantasy Baseball content from our great team of writers.

About Jason Beckner

Jason is based in Chicago. He is a baseball junkie. He eats, sleeps, & breathes baseball. Has a passion for dynasty formatted leagues. All opinions expressed are that of his own. You can follow Jason on twitter at @JRBecks

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  1. Pingback: Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 5-24-21 - Fantasy Six Pack

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