Dynasty Baseball

Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 5-31-21

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Hello and welcome to the 5-31-21 edition of Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell

Today is Memorial Day in the United States of America. For some, this is a holiday that signifies the beginning of Summer. Kids are on summer break, BBQs are in full swing, and baseball fields are packed with little leagues.

However, let’s take a moment to realize what Memorial Day is intended for and why many people have the day off of work. Memorial Day is an American holiday observed on the last Monday of May, honoring the men and women who have died while serving in the U.S. military. It originated in the years following the Civil War and became an official holiday in 1971.

I think that this goes by the wayside most of the time, people often overlook or forget the reason why we celebrate this holiday. So when you are off of work or at a BBQ this weekend or just hanging with family and friends, I highly encourage you to take a minute and honor and remember the great men and women who have paid the ultimate sacrifice for this great country we call home.

HAPPY MEMORIAL DAY!

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Beer of the Week: Hop Butcher for the World, Maximum MPH (N.E. IPA)

 

Be sure to check out Dave’s super deep Dynasty Rankings.

Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 5-31-21

Buy

Shane McClanahan, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays

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You should know by now that I have an infatuation with pitching. What better team to look at pitching prospects than Tampa Bay? Shane is the Rays fourth-ranked prospect via MLB Pipeline. Dave currently has him ranked as the 479th player in his dynasty rankings.

There are a ton of attributes and stats to love about Shane. First off his high-end velocity. Shane can touch triple digits with his fastball and sits 95-97. He features a four-pitch mix of fastball, slider, curveball and change-up.

He relies more heavily on a two-pitch mix of fastball and slider, as he throws them a combined 86%. Shane uses his high-end fastball to set up hitters and then strikes them out with his sweeping slider. His slider currently has a Put Away% of 31.2%

Since being drafted 31st overall in the 2018 MLB Amateur Draft, he has risen quickly through the Rays minor league system. He reached Double A by 2019, one year after being drafted. The Rays were so impressed with Shane, they gave him the call to the majors during their 2020 World Series run.

While granted it was out of the pen, that didn’t seem to matter as he finished with four appearances all against top competition (HOU, NYY, & LAD) with four strikeouts.

He currently has a 3.29 ERA and a 2.97 FIP, with 32 Ks in 27 IP. At times, the home run can be a problem as he has given up 3HR and has a 15% HR/FB rate. I mostly account that to growing pains and being a rookie.

Once Shane can figure out more how to pitch and not just throw, he will be able to progress even further on the mound. I am all in on Shane McClanahan and am trying to buy now while the price tag remains low.

 

Casey Mize, RHP, Detroit Tigers

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Casey had huge hype as a prospect after being drafted first overall in the 2018 MLB Amateur Draft. However, being drafted that high in a draft always brings a lot of pressure to perform at a high level. After being selected, he quickly rose through the Detroit farm system, so quickly that he made his MLB debut in 2020 (two years after being drafted).

However, his 2020 debut season was one to forget. He finished the season 0-3 with 8.26ERA, 1.48WHIP, 26K in seven starts. Furthermore, he was walking a little more than four batters a game.

Now in 2021 he did start off the year with a few hiccups and began to look similar to his 2020 self. However, since his start on April 29th against the White Sox, something has clicked. He now has five consecutive quality starts and has lowered his ERA down to 3.42. He has also struck 26 batters in 32 IP.

While the walks still continue to plague Mize in 2021, a lot of the issues that have caused many owners to lose faith are from his multiple shoulder issues. However, Mize still has three-plus pitch offerings that should be able to allow him to continue this upwards trajectory.

He is currently relying less on his sinker and appears to have found more confidence in his fastball. He also has a high-end splitter that he has begun to throw with more confidence.

I feel like the recent emergence of Mize is just the beginning. Mize has the potential to become a top 50 starting pitcher in dynasty leagues. While his strikeout numbers will never wow you, he will be able to string together quality starts and maintain generally low ratios.

I would be buying Mize while the current owner still has the bad taste in his/her mouth from 2020.

 

Sell

Carson Kelly, C, Arizona Diamondbacks

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Carson started his career in the Saint Louis Cardinals organization when he was drafted by them in the second round of the 2012 MLB Amateur Draft. Kelly performed well in the minors and has always had an advanced approach at the plate, displayed by his above-average K% and BB/K ratio in the minors.

However, after being stuck in Triple A for three seasons, due to the fact the Cardinals have a Gold-Glove, HOF candidate behind the dish that is not going away. The Cardinals decided it was time to trade away their top catching prospect to the Diamondbacks in a 2018 offseason deal that was able to net them a Gold Glove first baseman in Paul Goldschmidt.

Carson immediately paid out dividends after being thrown into the starting lineup with Arizona. In his first full season with the Diamondbacks, Carson slashed .245/.348/.478 with 18 HR, 19 doubles, and 47 RBI. Which ranked as a top 15 catcher.

So far in 2021 Carson is off to a hot start. He is slashing .311/.458/.556 with 6 HR, 19 RBI, 16 R, and has more walks than strikeouts. Clearly, the counting stats are great but he also ranks as the 6th best catcher in fantasy leagues.

His advanced stats are superior as well. Currently his xwOBA of .434 ranks in the top 2% of the league, and his xSLG of .551 ranks in the top 9% of the league.

The expected stats are great, however, his batted ball profile is suspect. He is currently not making a ton of great contact. Both his exit velocity and hard-hit rate rank in the bottom third of the league. So the concern for regression is real.

The regression is coming for Carson, therefore I would grasp this sell high window now while it remains open.


 

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About Jason Beckner

Jason is based in Chicago. He is a baseball junkie. He eats, sleeps, & breathes baseball. Has a passion for dynasty formatted leagues. All opinions expressed are that of his own. You can follow Jason on twitter at @JRBecks

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  1. Pingback: Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 6-7-21 - Fantasy Six Pack

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