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Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 6-7-21

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Welcome to Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 6-7-21

While it technically isn’t officially summer (the summer solstice is set to take place on June 20th), the weather this past weekend in Chicago had me feeling those summertime vibes.

One of the best summer memories I have growing up is setting up the slip-and-slide in the backyard, getting that thing full of water and seeing which one of my friends was able to make the whole distance of the slide.

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So my wife and I recently bought a classic slip-and-slide for our kids. With the weather topping out in the mid-90s this weekend, what better time than now to introduce our kids to a childhood classic?

Let me just start by saying, the kids absolutely LOVED the slip-and-slide. I had to turn off the water in order to get them inside for dinner. So if you are like me, and are looking for some summertime fun for either you or your kids, might I suggest a good old fashioned slip and slide.

Now let’s get into the Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 6-7-21

Be sure to check out last week’s article. Also, go check out Dave’s super deep Dynasty Rankings, which were just updated this week!

 

Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 6-7-21

Buy

Ryan Mountcastle, 1B/OF, Baltimore Orioles

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Ryan was drafted 36th overall in the 2015 MLB Amateur Draft by the Baltimore Orioles. Even as an 18-year-old he had an advanced bat-to-ball skill, displayed by his slash line of .313/.349/.411 with a wOBA of .366 in rookie ball.

Then in 2019 as a 22-year-old in Triple A, Ryan had a break out of sorts. He finished the season with a slash line of 312/344/527 with 25HR, 81R, 83RBI, and 35doubles.

After a strong 2019, Ryan made his debut with the Orioles in 35 games during the COVID shortened season of 2020. He never looked overmatched, hitting .333 with five home runs and 23 RBI.

Currently, in 2021, Ryan is having himself a season. After a slow start in which is only hit 198 in April. However, since April he is hitting .287. Which has raised his season average to .245.

He is making a ton of solid contact, he has barreled 14 balls, which is good enough for an 11 barrel%, and that ranks in the 66th percentile. He even owns one of the hardest-hit balls this season with a max exit velocity of 114.6 mph.

Since 2020 he has increased both his launch angle and exit velocity, which has caused greater results. He currently has eight home runs in 53 games. I would project Ryan as a middle-of-the-order bat that should hit in the 280-300 range with 25+HR with 80R and 100RBI. Buy him now while you still can.

Kyle Lewis, OF, Seattle Mariners

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Since being drafted 11th overall in the 2016 MLB Amateur Draft by the Mariners Kyle has always been regarded as a top 100 prospect by many including MLB Pipeline.

Kyle has had a chip on his shoulder ever since he went undrafted out of high school in 2013. Instead, he took his talents to Mercer University where he would go on to slash 367/465/655 with an OPS of 1.120. He has the highly coveted ability to hit for power and a high average. Kyle would eventually debut in 2019. He followed up a solid debut season with an excellent 2020. He would go on to slash 262/364/437 with 11HR, 28RBI, 37R, and 5SB. That was good enough to finish as the AL Rookie of the Year.

Now entering his age twenty-five season, Kyle is ready to show why he is the next young all-star outfielder. He is currently only slashing .246/.333/.392 with 5 HR, 15 R, 11 RBI, and 2 SB. However, a lot of his struggles have been the ability to stay healthy.

So far in 2021, Kyle has only appeared in 36 of the Mariners’ 60 games. He has battled numerous injuries, the most recent being an injured right knee that many believe will cause him to miss significant time. However, when healthy Kyle ranks in the top 25% of the league in xSLG, Barrel%, Chase%, and xwOBA. Clearly, Lewis has all the skills to perform like a top-50 outfielder.

The opportunity to buy low on Kyle is here. He is already in jeopardy of missing the remainder of the 2021 season. So the price tag may have just been lowered by the recent injury troubles.

 

Sell

Carlos Rodon, LHP, Chicago White Sox

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Many people, myself included, scoffed at the White Sox when they drafted Rodon third overall in the 2014 MLB Amateur Draft. They drafted Rodon over many big-name players such as Kyle Schwarber, Aaron Nola, Michael Conforto, and even Trea Turner. Clearly, the White Sox saw something they really liked in Rodon to draft him that high with those other players on the board. It might have been his 2.24 ERA or his 436 K in 345 IP for North Carolina State University.

Rodon has been met with mixed results in his young career, mostly due to the fact that he can’t stay healthy. Since 2016 he has never pitched more than 165 innings. He has had everything from Tommy John surgery to a wrist injury he sustained while falling in the dugout.

Rodon is off to a blazing hot start in 2021. Including a no-hitter in April which was just one HBP away from a perfect game. Currently he has a 1.98ERA, 0.82WHIP, and 80K in only 54.2IP.

The sell-high window is wide open for Rodon. I do not believe he is able to withstand this type of production. We are talking about a pitcher that has a career 3.94 ERA and 4.18 FIP.

Furthermore when looking at his advanced stats. Rodon has never had an xERA below 3.50. Rodon’s swing and miss potential is also highly inflated. His K% is 8% higher than he has ever had. His Chase% is also the highest its been in his career.

In my opinion, Rodon is also relying too much on his four-seam fastball. He is currently throwing his fastball almost 57% of the time, while he is only throwing his slider 25% of the time. These are the reason I believe that Carlos is soon to regress and you should be looking to sell high while you can.

 

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About Jason Beckner

Jason is based in Chicago. He is a baseball junkie. He eats, sleeps, & breathes baseball. Has a passion for dynasty formatted leagues. All opinions expressed are that of his own. You can follow Jason on twitter at @JRBecks

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  1. Pingback: Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 6-14-21 - Fantasy Six Pack

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