Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 7-5-21

by Dave Eddy
Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 7-5-21

Welcome to the 7-5-21 edition of Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell.

Jason was able to sneak away for a little vacation during this Holiday weekend. So, I am stepping in to do this week's Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell. It is something that we do every week during the live stream of the On Deck Circle Podcast. We go live every Tuesday night at 8 pm EST. If you have not checked it out before please give it a look.

I have tell you, the 4th of July is my favorite Holiday. Maybe it is from my eight years in the Marine Corps but I absolutely love seeing everyone in full patriotic mode. The cookouts, fireworks and time spent with friends and family. I love it all, while we celebrate our independence. Christmas is pretty awesome but nothing beats the 4th of July for this guy!

I also was able to catch some Lansing Lugnuts Baseball as they hosted the Dayton Dragons over the Holiday weekend. I am quite fortunate to be a credentialed member of the media. This allows me to catch a lot of live Baseball and get eyes on some of the guys that make up my deep Dynasty Baseball rankings. They had back to back to back nights of fireworks after each game this weekend so that was a great little treat.  I love Baseball and I love the 4th of July so what could have been better!

Now, let's jump into some Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell.

Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 7-5-21

Want to place some sports bets? Find the best ones here.

Buy

Brendan Rodgers, 2B/SS Colorado Rockies

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To be fair, I have been higher on Rodgers than most in the industry over the past couple of years. At times it has been a tough position to take because he hasn't done a lot to justify it. I haven't just done the pervertible "put my money where my mouth is" I have literally done so. For those of you that are not aware, I have quite the collection of MLB memorabilia. I have hundreds of signed bats and balls that adorn my home office. If you have seen any of the On Deck Circle Podcast live streams then you have gotten a sampling of it. During the offseason, when Rodgers value was at its lowest I purchased about two dozen of his signed Baseballs and added another signed bat of his. So I definitely have an investment in his success.

While it feels a long time ago, it was just 3 years since Rodgers was a consensus top 10 prospects in Baseball. He has had a tough time since then between injuries and struggles at the plate. How much have those injuries impacted his performance? While we will never really know I have a good feeling that is has certainly contributed.

I will be the first to tell you that Minor League stats don't mean a whole lot. That said, Rodgers has certainly put up some good ones. Over the course of a full MLB season, he roughly averaged a slash line of .298/.354/.504 to go along with 102 runs, 27 home runs, 102 RBI and 10 stolen bases.

Again, take that with a grain of salt without a doubt. It does go to show you that this guy can not just hit the Baseball but he can provide you with some speed as well. Given the fact that he plays half of his game in Coors Field, he is still just 24 years old and he has yet to be fully healthy for an extended period of time at the Big League level, I think it is not unfair to say we have yet to see the best of Rodgers by any means.

In fact, Rodgers has produced reasonably well over his last 30 days. This is since he came back from his latest injury. He has put up a slash line of .333/.409/.593 to go along with 10 runs, 5 home runs and 17 RBI. This has been in just 93 PA's but it is certainly encouraging.

Do you Buy or Sell?

Now comes the important part and why you are reading this in the first place. Do you Buy or Sell Brendan Rodgers? Of course, for me, it is never as easy as a simple buy or sell as it greatly depends on a lot of personal factors to you. Mostly, the state of your team and your league and league settings. That being said, if you are not a team contending for a title in 2021 then he is a definite buy in my opinion. The upside of a top 50 Dynasty Baseball player is there. He comes in at 204 in my Dynasty Baseball rankings so he is affordable.

On the other side of the coin, if you are a team that is in full win-now mode for 2021 he could be either. If you can get him at a top 250 value then I think you should buy him. He would make for a potentially good CI/MI starter that could provide you with very useful stats this year and give you tremendous upside in the future. Even if you don't have the CI/MI spots in your league he would likely be worth adding to your bench as a backup option that has the upside to be one of your better players down the road.

All in all I am still very high on Rodgers and think that no matter the state of your team he could make your overall roster better. These might be the last few weeks where he is affordable. I would highly suggest reaching out to whoever owns him in your league and check-in to see if he is attainable and makes sense acquiring.

Sell

Kyle Schwarber, OF, Washington Nationals

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*NOTE* Since the writing of this article Kyle Schwarber has suffered a hamstring injury. The severity of it is not currently known.

On the season Schwarber has put up some pretty elite advanced metrics. He is in the top 92nd percentile in Hardhit%, xwOBA, xSLG and barrel%. When I am looking at hitters, those metrics along with K% and BB% are the main ones I care about. While his K% is bottom 12% of the league his BB% is a little above average in the 64th percentile. Those are both greatly overshadowed by those first metrics I mentioned which are all well within elite range.

Not everyone is a metrics guy like I am, of course. Though I also know that Jason will enjoy seeing those advanced numbers as well. So let's talk about the reason that Schwarber is being talked about in this article. That is the absolute tear he has been on over the past month. Let me give you his stats over the last 30 days, in traditional stats:

.278/.363/.784 slash line to go along with 22 runs, 16 home runs and 28 RBI.

To put that into a little more context he is top 10 in runs and leads the league in home runs and RBI over that stretch. Add in a 195 wRC+ (which is 9th best in the league) you can see that he has been one of the most valuable bats over the last month.

Do you Buy or Sell?

This all brings about the question of what to do with him. For me, the decision on whether to buy or sell on a player isn't always linear. It depends on the makeup and direction of your team as well as your league and league settings. If you are a team that is not contending then I would suggest Schwarber is an obvious sell. At age 28 he certainly isn't old. He is definitely the type of player that is susceptible to long hot or cold streaks though. Best to move on from him to a contender that will likely pay well more than his current value while he is on one of his heaters. He is currently 227th in my Dynasty Baseball rankings and I am guessing you could get the value of about a top 100 player right now.

On the flip side of that, if you are a team that is contending then he is probably a guy you will want to look into acquiring. Doing so means that you are going to overpay for his long-term value. The short-term value he provides you might well end up worth it though. If he ends up being a piece that puts you over the edge and earns you a title then almost no price would have been too much.

All of that aside, in a vacuum I would classify Schwarber as a sell. His short-term value is just too high compared to what his long-term value sits at. Regardless, it never hurts to check in with whoever owns him in your league because you won't know how that owner values him unless you ask.


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1 comment

Dynasty Baseball Buy or Sell 7-12-21 - Fantasy Six Pack July 12, 2021 - 8:00 am

[…] Check out last weeks Buy or Sell Installment. […]

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