Dynasty Baseball Double-A Update (6-22)

by Mike Schneider
Dynasty Baseball Double-A Update

Welcome to the 6/22 edition of the Dynasty Baseball Double-A Update. This is the third monthly update on prospects' performance at the AA level. The focus is on the last 30 days beginning on May 21st.

Since the minor league reorganization in 2021, the full-season minor leagues have a set weekly schedule.  They play a series from Tuesday through Sunday, Monday is a travel day or day off.

In July there are a couple of deviations from this schedule.  There are no games on Sunday, July 7th.  I am not sure of the reason. Play resumes on Tuesday, July 9th until Sunday, July 14th.  The All-Star Break is for four days with play resuming on Friday, July 19th. The following week they return to the Tuesday to Sunday schedule. The AA regular season ends on September 15th.

The Futures Game will be on Saturday, July 13th as part of the All-Star festivities in Texas.  The rosters will likely be announced this week.

The MLB draft will begin on Sunday, July 14th with the first round.

Dynasty Baseball Double-A Update (6-22)

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We looked at how elite MLB hitters performed at AAA in  Triple A update a few weeks ago. Today we will look at how MLB hitting stars did at AA. When it is said that a prospect is "young for the level" it can mean a few different things.

The average age for position players in 2024 with a minimum of 50 plate appearances in AA is 24 years old. Does that mean a hitting prospect under age 24 is young for the level? The majority of players in the minors especially on the older end, are not really prospects.  This means that legitimate prospects are typically younger than age 24 when they are in AA.  When looking at age it is important to factor in that college players typically are a bit older and injuries can slow the development process.

Today I wanted to look at how soon major league hitters got to AA, how long they stayed in AA, and how soon after reaching AA did they reach the majors. Below is a table of top 50 position players for 2024 based on average draft position during draft season and their AAA experience. I excluded Shohei Ohtani and Ha-Seong Kim since their player development was not in the United States.

Nobody on this list skipped AA. The average age of the AA debut was 21.02. When talking about the age of prospects, the difference between age 24 and age 21 is significant.

Of the 50 players, 37 had less than 400 plate appearances at AA.  This means most of the players spent less than a full year at AA. J.T. Realmuto had 244 more plate appearances at AA than anyone else on the list. He played 152 games at AA, then was called up to make his major league debut on June 5, 2014, He then returned to AA after a few weeks for most of the rest of the year.  Realmuto was called up to the majors for good in 2015 after only three games in AAA.

23 of the 50 elite position players made their MLB debut less than a year after making their AA debut. Only four players made their MLB more than two years after making their MLB debut. Everyone from this list made their MLB debut within three years of their AA debut.

In summary, when the best major league hitters were at AA, they were significantly younger than the average player in AA. They typically did not spend much time in AA and were in the majors fairly soon.

PlayerAA ageMLB ageAA PAAA Debut until MLB Debut
Ronald Acuna Jr.19.3920.351150.96
Bobby Witt Jr.20.8921.812790.93
Julio Rodriguez20.5021.272060.77
Mookie Betts21.4921.722570.24
Corbin Carroll21.6322.022770.39
Kyle Tucker20.3621.473171.10
Fernando Tatis Jr.18.6420.234731.60
Freddie Freeman19.7920.971691.18
Juan Soto19.5419.57350.03
Aaron Judge22.9524.302801.34
Trea Turner21.7722.142950.37
Matt Olson21.0322.465851.43
Jose Ramirez20.5420.965330.41
Yordan Alvarez20.7721.951981.18
Bryce Harper18.7119.531690.82
Austin Riley20.2822.123121.84
Ozzie Albies19.2520.563711.32
Rafael Devers20.4520.753200.30
Elly De La Cruz20.5321.402070.87
Francisco Lindor19.6721.584781.91
Pete Alonso22.7124.303201.59
Corey Seager20.2321.352561.13
Marcus Semien22.5522.974830.42
Michael Harris II21.0921.221960.14
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.19.0620.112661.06
Gunnar Henderson20.2121.172250.96
Luis Robert Jr.21.7422.972441.23
Bo Bichette20.0821.405951.31
Jose Altuve21.0721.201620.13
CJ Abrams20.5821.511830.93
Adolis Garcia24.1025.433421.34
Randy Arozarena22.3424.464132.12
Royce Lewis20.1522.921562.77
Adley Rutschman23.2424.283711.05
Nolan Jones21.1824.172112.99
Cody Bellinger20.8021.794650.99
Manny Machado19.7520.014590.26
Nico Hoerner21.8922.322940.43
Mike Trout19.6719.923120.25
Jazz Chisholm Jr.21.1722.584581.41
Oneil Cruz20.5023.004082.50
J.T. Realmuto22.0523.228391.17
Christian Yelich21.3721.632220.26
William Contreras21.4522.582091.14
Paul Goldschmidt23.5723.894570.32
Gleyber Torres20.3221.361431.04
Will Smith22.2924.173101.88
Kyle Schwarber22.0922.282430.19
Bryan Reynolds23.1924.233831.04
Christian Walker22.3023.472091.17

Hot Pitchers

In his first four games at AA, Noah Schultz has not walked anyone.

Braxton AshcraftPIT247418.11422.950.932.8110.61.3
Caden DanaLAA2011930.12032.080.993.599.42.9
Ian BedellSTL2411228.12153.490.924.38112.6
Ian SeymourTB25105291200.930.692.7610.12.2
Ky BushCWS24119321321.410.692.928.93.3
Logan EvansSEA237119.11000.470.723.28.32.8
Noah SchultzCWS205615.2801.720.510.8312.10
Tink HenceSTL2157141313.211.142.4711.92.7
Zebby MatthewsMIN2492241812.250.831.4410.60.5

Hot Hitters

There were a lot of young hitting prospects that excelled in the last month.

Hao-Yu Lee who was acquired from the Phillies for Michael Lorenzen last year might have been the most impressive prospect recently.

Adael Amador21COL2B66146167.309.400.65519%16%.135.309
C.J. Kayfus22CLE1B5972120.391.508.63024%17%.239.486
Chandler Simpson23TBLF1061611517.394.415.5055%5%.107.400
Edgar Quero21CWSC108114170.347.426.53717%9%.194.366
Hao-Yu Lee21DET2B117257237.382.436.67617%10%.227.393
James Triantos21CHC2B89133913.337.382.50611%4%.156.351
Kristian Campbell21BOS2B66153122.421.500.71917%11%.298.519
Kyle Teel22BOSC107244254.359.439.55424%12%.171.392
Moises Ballesteros20CHC1B95114201.325.389.53015%10%.196.378
Roman Anthony20BOSCF58164101.383.500.78726%14%.216.382
Victor Bericoto22SFOF92176201.313.391.60024%7%.142.299

Cold Pitchers

Wikelman Gonzalez struggled at the start of the year, had a strong stretch last month before getting hit hard this month.

Brock SelvidgeNYY2113429.12715.221.533.549.24.5
Carson PalmquistCOL236513.21446.591.613.22124.2
Chase PettyCIN2110222.12935.241.613.968.23.2
Mason BarnettKC23106223169.411.773.64113.3
Matthew ThompsonCHC238217.11436.231.855.548.66.2
Ronan KoppLAD215211.1802.381.595.5111.111.6
Wikelman GonzalezBOS227814.123210.672.164.839.76.2

Cold Hitters

A lot of these hitting prospects have struggled all year.

Last year, Abimelec Ortiz might have been the hottest hitter in the minors.

Aaron Bracho23CLE2B615061.185.262.22220%8%.091.248
Abimelec Ortiz22TEX1B779350.157.234.31424%7%.137.254
Arol Vera21LAASS685030.164.235.19729%6%.047.204
Eric Brown Jr.23MILSS9913293.186.283.27919%9%.068.238
Kristian Robinson23AZLF765251.200.316.33838%12%.072.249
Nathan Martorella23MIA1B883162.163.216.23816%15%.135.363
Tanner Schobel23MINSS809180.186.250.28625%13%.096.293

Popup Hitting Prospect

Robert Moore was the 72nd overall pick in the 2022 draft out of Arkansas.  he Brewers traded him in the Olver Dunn deal.  He had not done much as a pro until recently. Moore has a well-rounded game and can play both shortstop and second base.

Robert Moore22PHI2B90134145.288.360.52516%9%.141.327

Popup Pitching Prospect

Cameron Weston was a 2022 eighth-round pick out of Michigan. In his last three starts, he has allowed just five hits in 14.2 innings.

Cameron WestonBAL237619.1924.190.933.1111.83.2

Hot Pitchers From Last Month

Caden Dana has been a model of consistency in 2024.

Embed from Getty Images

Chandler Champlain got promoted to AAA Omaha.

Caden DanaLAA2011930.12032.080.993.599.42.9
Chandler ChamplainKC24236.1300.000.632.7312.01.8
Kyle BrnovichBAL26103242174.881.295.2610.54.1
Mason AdamsCWS24121302922.101.133.369.11.4
Tommy MaceCLE25114252714.681.443.526.62.8
Wikelman GonzalezBOS227814.123210.672.164.839.76.2
Yilber DiazAZ235712.2706.391.503.2212.84.8
Zach MessingerNYY2410624.22322.921.223.1610.12.9

Hot Hitters From Last Month

Agustin Ramirez, Deyvison De Los Santos, Matthew Lugo, and Tyler Locklear were all promoted in the last month.  Locklear is in the majors.

Agustin Ramirez22NYYC105174205.313.343.54516%11%.281.406
Carson Williams20TBSS8216494.200.305.41426%10%.260.405
Deyvison De Los Santos21AZ3B40000.000.000.00022%7%.324.490
Harry Ford21SEAC1078089.247.336.26921%15%.136.355
Jacob Melton23HOUCF212011.167.286.22221%8%.176.329
Matthew Lugo23BOS3B5011271.372.438.69821%12%.349.456
Tyler Locklear23SEA1B194131.250.368.50026%12%.241.411

Cold Pitchers From Last Month

Tekoah Roby and Trent Palmer are on the injured list.  Bubba Chandler was briefly on the injured list.  Marco Raya and Anthony Solometo have had a light workload recently.

Anthony SolometoPIT214911915.731.366.386.65.7
Bubba ChandlerPIT216915.21734.021.214.1210.54.5
Kendall WilliamsLAD2310425.12304.621.224.815.34.7
Marco RayaMIN2154131104.151.383.9010.64.7
Ryan BergertSD24103242735.631.464.027.52.9
Tekoah RobySTL22254.28111.572.366.408.93.2
Trent PalmerTOR251121018.001.505.156.88.1

Cold Hitters From Last Month

A quick glance at the strikeout rate and the ISO shows these hitting prospects continue to struggle.

Arol Vera21LAASS685030.164.235.19729%6%.047.204
Austin Hendrick23CINRF9510271.233.298.34940%6%.082.252
Eric Brown Jr.23MILSS9913293.186.283.27919%9%.068.238
Jacob Berry23MIA1B575082.283.333.35825%5%.070.222
Jose Ramos23LADCF107143133.236.346.37137%10%.156.291
Wilderd Patiño22AZCF475117.250.348.35034%7%.090.273
Willy Vasquez22TB3B7673160.306.342.54230%6%.118.266

Young Pitchers

These AA pitchers are 21 years old or younger and have faced more than 50 batters in the past month.

Andry LaraWSH21119292463.411.
Brett WichrowskiMIL218817.22547.132.045.957.65.0
Brock SelvidgeNYY2113429.12715.221.533.549.24.5
Bubba ChandlerPIT216915.21734.021.214.1210.54.5
Caden DanaLAA2011930.12032.080.993.599.42.9
Chase PettyCIN2110222.12935.241.613.968.23.2
Marco RayaMIN2154131104.151.383.9010.64.7
Mason AlbrightCOL21112282132.571.214.416.63.5
Noah SchultzCWS205615.2801.720.510.8312.10.0
Robby SnellingSD2097202957.651.954.297.84.0
Ronan KoppLAD215211.1802.381.595.5111.111.6
Tink HenceSTL2157141313.211.142.4711.92.7
Victor LizarragaSD2010725.12013.551.223.469.03.9

Young Hitters

These are the AA hitters that are 20 years or younger.

Carson Williams20TBSS8216494.200.305.41426%10%.260.405
Cole Young20SEASS109165134.301.376.48416%11%.137.338
Denzer Guzman20LAASS9893132.295.354.44327%8%.122.308
Moises Ballesteros20CHC1B95114201.325.389.53015%10%.196.378
Nelson Rada18LAACF10012145.161.253.21824%8%.036.256
Roman Anthony20BOSCF58164101.383.500.78726%14%.216.382
Ryan Clifford20NYM1B99217191.227.404.61330%20%.306.382
Samuel Basallo19BALC103134164.315.382.52221%7%.173.345

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