Dynasty Baseball FYPD Rankings

by Mike Schneider
Dynasty Baseball FYPD Rankings

Below are my rankings of 70 players for first-year player drafts.

There are a lot of different rules depending on your dynasty league.  Some leagues have drafts in the summer immediately after the MLB draft. In some leagues, the international free agents are separated from the prospects from the draft. In addition, the older established players from the Asian leagues who come over directly to the majors may be handled separately from other first-year prospects.

For purposes of these rankings, I have included the players from the 2023 MLB draft, the 2024 international free agent (IFA) class, and the players coming over from Japan and Korea for the 2024 season.  This means that the list includes IFAs who are as young as 16 and veterans from Asia who could be in their thirties.

Dynasty Baseball FYPD Rankings

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Notes from the Top Twenty-five

There were four position players and one pitcher from the first round in the 2023 draft who significantly improved their stock based on their performance as a pro late in the summer.

Wyatt Langford (Rangers OF) dominated across four levels finishing the year at AAA Round Rock.  There was speculation when Adolis García got injured in the World Series, that the Rangers could call up Langford.  While Langford ended up not debuting in the World Series he is going between 150 and 175 in early 2024 fantasy drafts.

Matt Shaw (Cubs SS) was extremely impressive finishing the year with 15 games at AA Tennessee.  In total in 38 games as a pro, Shaw had eight homers and 15 steals. With Dansby Swanson and Nick Hoerner, the Cubs do not have room for Shaw in the middle infield.

The Red Sox do not appear to have much blocking Kyle Teel at catcher.   Teel finished the year at AA Portland and in 26 games as a pro, he had a .462 on-base percentage.

The Angels are not afraid to bring up recent draft picks.  For the third year in a row, the first player from the draft class was an Angel.  First basemen, Nolan Schanuel played just 22 games in the minors before getting the call-up on August 18th.  In 29 major league games, Schanuel had a .402 on-base percentage with a  14.4% strikeout rate.  However, he only hit one homer.

Typically college pitchers who are picked in the first round after pitching a full college season, either don't pitch at all or threw a few innings in the Complex League after getting drafted.  However, the Braves Hurston Waldrep pitched 29.1 innings as a pro including a start in AAA Gwinett after throwing  101.2 innings at Univesity of Florida in the spring.  Waldrep held batters to a .179 batting average against with a 33.3% strikeout rate as a pro.

For a couple of years before the 2023 MLB draft, Dylan Crews was projected to be the top pick.  Crews was outstanding at LSU including a .426/.567/.713 line in 2023.  However, the Pirates selected his college teammate, Paul Skenes with the first pick.  This had more to do with Skenes emerging as a potential top-of-the-rotation starter than anything Crews did.

As a pro, while Wyatt Langford dominated, Crews was great in 14 games at High A with a 192 wRC+ but only had a .595 OPS in 20 games at AA. Too much is being made of a small sample at AA. Crews' strikeout rate of 22.4% with a 9.6% walk rate were fine. He had a low .278 BABIP.

I did move Langford above Crews but I think it is very close.  For 2024, Langofrd currently has an ADP  of 161 while Crews' ADP is 620 despite Crews being on a team with more openings in the outfield.  This is much too big of a gap. Crews is a late target of mine this year in Draft Champions leagues.  In First Year Players Drafts, I think Langford and Crews are on the same tier and there is a big gap after them.

Deeper League Philosophy

I play in a couple of thirty-team dynasty leagues where there are ten-round drafts only for players from the current year draft.  To be honest, after the first couple of rounds, I draft based on philosophy rather than evaluating on an individual basis.

Until the last couple of years, I tended to trade away my late draft picks.  However, the lure of finding the next Spencer Strider or Tanner Bibee has shifted my strategy in the other direction. I now like to trade for more late-round picks which are cheap.  These are lottery tickets and the more you have the more likely the chance is to hit on a future impact major leaguer.

The real-life draft order is a guideline but unlike other sports, in baseball signability is a big factor.  Very talented high school players could drop in the draft because teams do not have the bonus allotment to meet their signing bonus demands to get the prospect to go pro and not go to college. Brock Porter and Coby Mayo are recent examples of players who should have been picked much higher in a dynasty  First Year Players Draft than they went in the real-life draft.

The big factors I look at after the first couple of rounds in a deep FYPD are the real-life order, signing bonus, and organizational track record.  Certain teams are better at identifying prospects and then developing them,  Players drafted by the Dodgers or Rays will be targets.  Some organizations are good at developing a particular position.  A Guardian pitching draft pick will be a target.

Proximity and floor are always important in first-year player drafts where college and high players are drafted together.  High school players have a much larger unknown but can also have a higher ceiling. I used to primarily focus on college players, but the success of high school players like Bobby Witt Jr. Corbin Carroll, and Michael Harris II in the 2019 draft caused me to be more open-minded about high school position players.

Every year there are late-round college players typically with limited defensive value who put up big numbers at the lower levels of the minors the same year they were drafted.  These players then go much higher in a FYPD than they did in the real draft.  It is best to cautious and let someone else draft these players.  A player that is too advanced for a level can dominate but that does not mean that they are going to continue once they are assigned to a more appropriate level.

I tend to draft position players early because they are safer than pitchers.  Later in the draft, my preference is to take a volume approach with a preference for college pitchers and athletic high school position players.

Dynasty Baseball FYPD Rankings

RankPlayerOrgPositionAge
1Yoshinobu YamamotoLADP25
2Wyatt LangfordTEXOF22
3Dylan CrewsWASOF21
4Paul SkenesPITP21
5Matt ShawCHCSS22
6Max ClarkDETOF19
7Walker JenkinsMINOF18
8Kyle TeelBOSC21
9Nolan SchanuelLAA1B21
10Rhett LowderCINP21
11Tommy TroyARISS21
12Jung Hoo LeeSFCF25
13Enrique Bradfield JrBALCF22
14Hursten WaldrepATLP21
15Paulino SantanaOF17
16Jacob WilsonOAKSS21
17Jacob GonzalezCHWSS21
18Brayden TaylorTBSS21
19Brock WilkenMIL3B21
20Noble MeyerMIAP19
21George Lombard NYYSS18
22Dillon HeadSDOF19
23Blake MitchellKCC19
24Aidan MillerPHISS19
25Leo de VriesSS17
26Colt EmersonSEASS18
27Ty FloydCINP22
28Chase DavisSTLOF22
29Thomas WhiteMIAP19
30Adolfo SanchezOF17
31Kevin McGonigleDETSS19
32Bryce EldridgeSFP/1B19
33Shōta ImanagaP30
34Kendall GeorgeLADOF19
35Arjun NimmalaTORSS18
36Dawel JosephSS16
37Ralphy VelazquezCLEC18
38Brice MatthewsHOUSS21
39Colin HouckNYMSS19
40Chase DollanderCOLP22
41Jose PerdomoSS17
42Josh KnothMILP18
43Charlee SotoMINP18
44Jonny FarmeloSEAOF19
45Yohandy MoralesWAS3B22
46Adrian SantanaTBSS18
47Tai PeeteSEASS18
48Daiber De Los SantosSS17
49Myles NaylorOAK3B18
50Max AndersonDET3B21
51Mac HorvathBALOF21
52Jake GelofLAD3B21
53Drue HackenbergATLP21
54Yuki MatsuiSDP28
55Emil MoralesSS17
56Gino GrooverARI3B21
57Yovanny RodriguezC17
58Alex ClemmeyCLEP18
59Andrew WaltersCLEP23
60Alonzo TredwellHOUP21
61Cade KuehlerATLP21
62Fernando CruzSS17
63Blake WoltersKCP19
64Mitch JebbPITSS21
65Jackson BaumeisterBALP21
66Joe WhitmanSFP22
67Kemp AldermanMIAOF21
68Luke KeaschallMIN2B21
69Colton LedbetterTBOF22
70Walker MartinSFSS19

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3 comments

charlie January 3, 2024 - 3:59 am

Where is ranking?

Reply
Joe January 3, 2024 - 8:49 am

Added a quick ranking column to the table if that’s what you meant.

Reply
CHARLIE January 3, 2024 - 9:49 pm

Thank you very much!

Reply

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