Dynasty Baseball Triple-A Update (6/8)

by Mike Schneider
Dynasty Baseball Triple-A Update

Welcome to the 6/8 edition of the Dynasty Baseball Triple-A Update. This is the third monthly update on the performance of prospects at the AAA level. The focus is on the last 30 days beginning on May 7th.

The Nationals, James Wood continues to be the most impressive prospect in AAA.  He has been out the last couple of weeks with a hamstring strain but should return soon. The question then becomes how soon will the National call him up. Wood had the best OPS in baseball in spring training. It has only been 45 games at AAA but Wood is standing out by virtually every metric.

Although the Nationals are 28-35, they are only 2.5 games out of the wild card in a bunched-up National League. Outside of CJ Abrams, they are not getting much production from young players.

Despite how well Wood has played does he need more time in AAA? Does it make sense to begin Wood's service clock?  Since winning the World Series in 2019 there has been very little for Nationals fans to cheer about. Like Elly De Lla Cruz, there may be times when Wood struggles in the majors but he will instantly be one of the most exciting players in baseball to watch.

Be sure to see how each of these prospects rank in both my prospect rankings and our dynasty rankings.

Dynasty Baseball Triple-A Update (6/8)

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It is frequently said that a prospect is young for the level.  I wanted to discuss what "young for the level" means. Most of the players in the minor leagues are not prospects, especially at the AAA level. We will look at position players this month and next month we will do the same for pitchers.

The AAA level consists of a lot of players who are experienced pros who either have some major league experience or are looking for an opportunity. It can be challenging for a hitting prospect to face a pitcher who may not have the skills to succeed at the major league level but who is more savvy than the prospect has previously encountered.

The average age for position players in 2024 with a minimum of 50 plate appearances in AAA is 26.87.  Three elite hitting prospects have spent the majority of the year at AAA (James Wood age 21, Jackson Holiiday, and Junior Caminero who are both age 20).

Today I wanted to look at how elite major league hitters performed at AAA. Below is a table of top 50 position players for 2024 based on average draft position during draft season and their AAA experience.  I excluded Shohei Ohtani and Ha-Seong Kim since their player development was not in the United States.

I tried to weed out rehab assignments. Nine of the 50 players skipped AAA and went to the majors from AA. An additional 21 players had less than 300 plate appearances at AAA. The average age for the AAA debut was 21.85. When looking at age it is important to factor in that college players typically are a bit older and injuries can slow the development process.

The majority of the major league hitting stars reached AAA and the majors before they were 23. This is something to keep in mind when evaluating hitting prospects. However, there are a handful of fantasy-hitting stars who developed later. Christian Walker and Adolis Garcia had over 1,000 plate appearances at AAA.  Walker made his AAA and major league debut in 2014 but did not become a major league regular until 2019.

PlayerAAA Debut AgeMLB Debut Age# of AAA PA
Ronald Acuna Jr.19.5720.35153
Bobby Witt Jr.21.1021.81285
Julio Rodriguez 21.270
Mookie Betts21.6521.72211
Corbin Carroll21.8822.02157
Kyle Tucker21.2121.47998
Fernando Tatis Jr.-99.0120.2339
Freddie Freeman20.5720.97546
Juan Soto-98.8219.570
Aaron Judge26.1524.30689
Trea Turner21.9922.14586
Matt Olson22.0322.46987
Jose Ramirez21.5420.96472
Yordan Alvarez21.0221.95453
Bryce Harper19.4719.5394
Austin Riley21.1022.12518
Ozzie Albies19.3120.56722
Rafael Devers20.7220.7560
Elly De La Cruz21.2721.40186
Francisco Lindor20.6821.58452
Pete Alonso23.5224.30301
Corey Seager21.0121.35464
Marcus Semien22.8722.97523
Michael Harris II 21.220
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.19.3820.11162
Gunnar Henderson20.9421.17295
Luis Robert Jr.21.9422.97286
Bo Bichette20.9921.40250
Jose Altuve21.200
CJ Abrams21.6021.51186
Adolis Garcia24.3225.431104
Randy Arozarena23.1024.46616
Royce Lewis22.8322.92228
Adley Rutschman23.5124.28238
Nolan Jones22.9924.17857
Cody Bellinger21.1421.79118
Manny Machado20.010
Nico Hoerner22.320
Mike Trout20.6619.9293
Jazz Chisholm Jr.22.580
Oneil Cruz22.8823.00276
J.T. Realmuto 23.220
Christian Yelich21.630
William Contreras23.5422.58222
Paul Goldschmidt23.890
Gleyber Torres20.4421.36159
Will Smith23.3524.17368
Kyle Schwarber22.3022.28111
Bryan Reynolds24.1824.2356
Christian Walker23.3023.471018

Hot Hitters

Ryan Bliss and Henry Davis are now in the majors.

James Wood is on the list for the third month in a row.

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ProspectAGEORGPOS.PARHRRBISBAVGOBPSLGK%BB%ISOWOBA
Brennen Davis24CHCCF77208191.305.468.76321%14%.316.415
Dillon Dingler25DETC69103113.400.449.63321%8%.210.381
Henry Davis24PITC97207171.308.443.66725%10%.346.461
James Wood21WSHCF62157202.417.532.89618%17%.241.460
Matt Gorski26PITCF1022110292.303.356.74230%7%.323.383
Ryan Bliss24SEA2B741441410.279.392.52522%17%.198.365
Shay Whitcomb25HOUSS102186156.315.402.59625%11%.240.390

Hot Pitchers

In their first year at AAA Adam Kloffenstein and Carlos F. Rodriguez started slowly but have turned things around.

ProspectORGBatters FacedBFIPHHRERAWHIPFIPK/9BB/9
A.J. BlubaughHOU239322.22203.571.282.7693.4
Adam KloffensteinSTL2311430.22063.520.825.167.53.4
Carlos F. RodriguezMIL22118302153.000.974.349.54.2
Joe RockTB23107271921.670.933.419.52
Landon KnackLAD268520.11513.541.182.969.23.3
Yoendrys GómezNYY246917912.651.004.0310.84.9

Cold Hitters

Jordan Walker has really struggled since being sent down.

Junior Caminero is on the injured list with a left quadriceps strain that will keep him out until July. After a good start, he was slumping before the injury.

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ProspectAGEORGPOS.PARHRRBISBAVGOBPSLGK%BB%ISOWOBA
Colson Montgomery22CWSSS10191161.225.307.31528%13%.153.324
Jordan Walker22STLRF997171.253.273.40017%6%.130.304
Jose Barrero26TEXSS80123116.139.213.27839%6%.168.252
Junior Caminero20TBSS736280.200.288.30823%9%.217.355
Luis Vazquez24CHCSS593020.115.193.15423%9%.119.321
Oswald Peraza23NYY3B707044.158.314.17527%19%.017.252

Cold Pitchers

The performance of Connor Phillips and Mick Abel this year continues to be disappointing.

ProspectORGAgeBFIPHHRERAWHIPFIPK/9BB/9
Connor PhillipsCIN2310921.22147.062.177.108.18.5
Justin ArmbruesterBAL251122326108.611.617.6610.85.7
Ty MaddenDET246313.11528.101.956.8811.57.1
Will WarrenNYY248615.228514.942.626.209.74.2
Jackson WolfSD2510120.23147.401.945.267.84.9
Mick AbelPHI2295202026.301.905.708.06.5

Hot Hitters From Last Month

How did the hot hitters from last month's article perform since then?

Nick Gonzales was called up to the majors on May 10th and has been playing extremely well.

Coby Mayo has been on the injured list since May 16th with a fractured rib.

Ryan Ward recently returned from the injured list. He has 17 homers in 39 games.

ProspectAGEORGPOS.PARHRRBISBAVGOBPSLGK%BB%ISOWOBA
Coby Mayo22BAL3B336250.241.333.55228%9%.314.412
Drew Romo22COLC86106160.296.337.56820%2%.203.381
Jace Jung23DET2B8893110.270.375.47325%16%.229.388
James Wood21WSHCF62157202.417.532.89618%17%.241.460
Kyle Manzardo23CLE1B41110.250.2501.00017%12%.339.428
Ryan Ward26LADLF4194130.378.439.83826%4%.424.438
Tyler Black23MIL1B99114217.262.374.46413%12%.213.387

Hot Pitchers From Last Month

Paul Skenes was called up right after last month's article and has been shoving.

Embed from Getty Images

Christian Scott is temporarily back in AAA due to the Met's schedule but will be back in the majors soon.

Cade Povich is getting an opportunity with the Orioles now.

ProspectORGAgeBFIPHHRERAWHIPFIPK/9BB/9
Cade PovichBAL248619.12136.051.342.8611.93.3
Christian ScottNYM24185211.800.604.5012.82.1
Clayton BeeterNYY25389212.001.112.8312.45.9
Mason BlackSF24326.2902.701.952.4210.53.2
Paul SkenesPIT22174.1314.151.151.2414.82.6
Sem RobberseSTL221373132107.551.454.508.82.7

Cold Hitters From Last Month

Two Guardian prospects, José Tena and Juan Brito had nice rebounds.

The strikeout rate for Rece Hinds continues to be alarming.

ProspectAGEORGPOS.PARHRRBISBAVGOBPSLGK%BB%ISOWOBA
Jordyn Adams24LAACF86182123.276.329.42129%9%.096.286
José Tena23CLESS121206206.327.400.55126%8%.152.342
Juan Brito22CLESS115255233.310.400.56016%15%.179.349
Rece Hinds23CINRF9115485.218.330.42340%11%.178.317
Ronny Simon24TB2B8612055.295.349.39720%5%.138.311
Tyler Gentry25KCRF88121112.203.276.38032%13%.123.270

Cold Pitchers From Last Month

DJ Herz was just called up to the majors for the first time. He pitched better recently but walks continue to be a red flag for his future as a starter.

ProspectORGAgeBFIPHHRERAWHIPFIPK/9BB/9
Chad DallasTOR234510.1843.481.066.546.64
Connor PhillipsCIN2310921.22147.062.177.108.18.5
DJ HerzWSH237318912.501.174.3710.57.3
Mick AbelPHI2295202026.301.905.708.06.5
Mike VasilNYM2410424.22044.741.106.537.54.4
Rhett KoubaHOU24122.14111.572.575.358.46.5

Pop Up Prospect

Adrian Del Castillo looked like a potential backup catcher.  However, recently he has shown that he may have more upside. He already has 36 extra-base hits in 55 games.

Before this year, Marlins prospect, Javier Sanoja had played just 30 games at High A. After 15 games at AA Pensacola, Sanja was called up to AAA on April 23rd.  Sanoja is very small (5'7" 150 lbs) and has little power. He has struck out just ten times in 39 games at AAA. Sanoja can play both the infield and outfield.

ProspectAGEORGPOS.PARHRRBISBAVGOBPSLGK%BB%ISOWOBA
Adrian Del Castillo24AZC115214150.330.391.60218%7%.264.417
Javier Sanoja21MIACF116152194.343.405.5106%10%.158.363

Most Barrels

These players have had at least ten barrels in the last 30 days.

Matt Gorski had ten homers in the last 30 days to lead AAA during that period.

ProspectORGAGEPOS.Barrels
Alexander CanarioCHC24LF15
Adrian Del CastilloAZ24C14
Orelvis MartinezTOR22SS12
Luke RitterNYM272B11
Matt GorskiPIT26CF11
Luken BakerSTL271B11
Michael TogliaCOL251B11
Bobby DalbecBOS281B10
Matt WallnerMIN26RF10

Highest Average Exit Velocity

These players have had the highest exit velocity with a minimum of 50 plate appearances.

Like last month, this list can best be described as James Wood and a bunch of Quad-A hitters.

ProspectORGAGEAverage Exit Velocity
James WoodWSH2195.7
Luke RitterNYM2795.5
Niko KavadasBOS2594.9
Brian O'KeefeKC3093.8
Sam HilliardCOL3093.1
Luken BakerSTL2793.1
Matt WallnerMIN2693.0

Young Hitters

These are the AAA hitters under the age of 23 with at least 50 plate appearances in the last 30 days.

A number of these prospects have excelled in the last month.

ProspectAGEORGPOS.PARHRRBISBAVGOBPSLGK%BB%ISOWOBA
Junior Caminero20TBSS736280.200.288.30823%9%.217.355
Jackson Holliday20BAL2B120284134.271.417.45821%21%.193.406
Deyvison De Los Santos20AZ3B64111110.311.344.49219%5%.181.363
Owen Caissie21CHCRF9393151.304.409.48127%17%.159.389
Javier Sanoja21MIACF116152194.343.405.5106%10%.158.363
James Wood21WSHCF62157202.417.532.89618%17%.241.460
Colson Montgomery22CWSSS10191161.225.307.31528%13%.153.324
Orelvis Martinez22TORSS100105150.153.253.35325%9%.257.356
Thomas Saggese22STL2B929391.188.231.35322%6%.164.304
Luisangel Acuña22NYMSS121251610.273.331.35517%7%.097.284
Chase Meidroth22BOS3B11916094.305.437.37911%18%.085.373
Jordan Walker22STLRF997171.253.273.40017%6%.130.304
Victor Mesa Jr.22MIACF117164122.255.336.42220%10%.188.360
Jonatan Clase22SEALF6414267.269.406.46224%18%.205.367
Juan Brito22CLESS115255233.310.400.56016%15%.179.349
Drew Romo22COLC86106160.296.337.56820%2%.203.381
Jhonkensy Noel22CLEOF115188290.337.417.63422%7%.278.388

Young Pitchers

These are the AAA pitchers under the age of 23 with at least 15 innings pitched in the last 30 days.

ProspectORGAgeBFIPHHRERAWHIPFIPK/9BB/9
Blake WalstonAZ2263151624.201.404.938.85.1
Carlos F. RodriguezMIL22118302153.000.974.349.54.2
Cristian MenaAZ21122273345.001.564.849.34.3
Mick AbelPHI2295202026.301.905.708.06.5
Sem RobberseSTL221373132107.551.454.508.82.7

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