They say bad Thursday Night Football is better than no Thursday Night Football. I wonder if they made it through halftime of this Carolina Panthers vs. Chicago Bears game because I sure didn't. Remember Miles Sanders? Yeah, me neither. Anyway, this is Dynasty Football Debate: Christian Watson.
Now, I am holding possibly the biggest "L" of the year right now regarding my Christian Watson take from earlier in the season, and I accept that. If you don't remember, in a previous article I boasted about how I traded Pukachu (Puka Nacua) for Watson after his huge week 1 performance.
I thought Puka would fizzle out and Watson would come back from his hamstring injury and put up some big numbers. Shame me. Roast me. Yes, I am a big dumb dumb.
I am holding onto a small sliver of hope that Watson can get back to giving us (me) some of those big boom performances. Why am I holding onto that hope, you ask? Because I have already invested so much into him that I don't want to settle for pennies on the dollar for a player who has shown the ability to perform before.
Dynasty Football Debate: Christian Watson
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Injury After Injury
It seems like every week Watson has some sort of injury reported. First, it was his hamstring, then his knee, then a potential concussion, then pretty much everything PLUS another potential concussion. When does it end? Whether serious injury or not if the guy cannot stay healthy he is not going to perform at his best.
If I had the opportunity to save myself from the headache of having to worry about whether Watson is going to be able to finish a full 60-minute football game, I would take it instantly. KeepTradeCut.com currently lists Watson as the WR37 in single quarterback leagues and WR38 in superflex leagues.
That means you should be able to get a 2024 projected early second-round rookie pick for him at this point. I think that is fair, but with such a high injury risk and his current lack of production your league-mates may not go for that offer and understandably so.
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Sad Truth
Last year, Watson finished as a top 10 WR in PPR leagues four times, which is great...right? Well, it seems great until you remember he caught three touchdown passes against Dallas in Week 10.
He then caught two touchdowns the following week against Tennessee and followed that up with one receiving touchdown against Philadelphia. Finally, in Week 13 he caught a touchdown and rushed for a touchdown in Chicago. Watson has never seen more than eight targets in a game by the way.
So why was the fantasy community (myself included) still somewhat high on Watson heading into 2023? We knew Aaron Rodgers would be gone and Jordan Love would be stepping in. Normally, the touchdown regression articles are in abundance for such cases (see Jahan Dotson) yet for Watson a lot of us were drafting him high regardless.
Maybe Watson is just not who we wanted him to be for fantasy football.
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Options for Dynasty
So what do we do with Watson now? Well, we can sell low and hope to get an early to mid-2024 second-round pick. I think at best we are looking at a late second-round pick if we try to trade him right this second.
Holding onto Watson for now is the best option in my opinion. There are still nine weeks left in the NFL regular season. I believe in at least ONE of those nine weeks Watson will break 20 PPR points. Wait for that day...and then sell immediately! Hopefully after that we can at least get a mid to late 2024 first-round pick or a decent player in return.
Weather the Storm
The other option is to ride it out. Hope Watson becomes the player that we all wanted him to be for fantasy football, and then you have the player you drafted or traded for on your roster for years, helping you win fantasy championships. This is not what I will be doing but as we can see by my history I am not always right. None of us are, unfortunately.
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Conclusion
The current situation with Christian Watson is why we play Dynasty in the first place. Moving players around, trying to predict the future, optimizing our rosters, and acquiring draft capital. Some of us will make the correct decision and some of us won't but this is what makes it fun.
I genuinely hope Christian Watson ends up being an amazing fantasy asset in the future, but based on last year alone it is hard to predict an amazing outcome. If Jordan Love and the Packers' offense are able to figure it out I believe there is a chance, but as for me, I am looking to move on from Watson as soon as I believe his value increases just a little bit from where it is currently.
Thanks for reading the Dynasty Football Debate: Christian Watson.
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1 comment
Great stuff Taylor!