Dynasty Football Debate: Kyren Williams

by Taylor Michel
Dynasty Football Debate: Kyren Williams

The first bye week of the 2023 NFL Season is upon us! Cannot believe we are already here, but this is where we start separating the pretenders from the contenders. I think this is about the time of the season when we can really determine whether our teams are contending or whether it is time to sell assets for future capital. So today we are going to talk about a running back that has been on fire for fantasy football. Can Kyren Williams keep it up? This is the Dynasty Football Debate: Kyren Williams.

Williams, running back for the Los Angeles Rams, has emerged as a surprise workhorse through the first four weeks of the season. Averaging an impressive 20.4 PPR fantasy points per game and 19.02 points in half PPR, he has undoubtedly become a coveted asset in dynasty leagues.

However, the question that looms large is whether you should hold onto him for the long haul or seize the opportunity to sell him at the peak of his value.

Dynasty Football Debate: Kyren Williams

Become an All-Access Member to get access to the Award-Winning Rankings, Projections, DFS/Betting Advice and Tools and more!

If you are already a member, sign in.

Embed from Getty Images
Kyren Williams: The Underdog Workhorse

Williams' journey from a fifth-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft to a fantasy football workhorse is a testament to the power of volume. He stands at 5'9" and weighs 194 pounds with a 40-yard dash time of 4.65 seconds. Clearly, Williams does not fit the typical profile of an NFL workhorse back.

Yet, here he is, defying expectations and delivering exceptional fantasy production. So, should you buy into the hype?

Embed from Getty Images
Immediate Contender vs. Long-Term Strategy

The decision to hold onto or trade Williams largely depends on your team's position and aspirations in your dynasty league. If you find yourself in contention for a fantasy title this year, acquiring Williams can be a game-changer.

He has consistently delivered top-10 RB finishes in the first four weeks of the season, making him a valuable asset for immediate success. In PPR leagues, his versatility shines, boasting a top-10 route participation percentage of 64%, playing approximately 83% of the offensive RB snaps, and scoring five touchdowns in the first four games.

However, it's essential to keep the long-term perspective in mind. Recent reports of the Rams inquiring about the availability of Colts' running back Jonathan Taylor for a potential trade illustrate that they are already exploring elite RB help.

Obviously JT seems to be staying in Indianapolis, but eventually, the Rams are going to seek running back help. Whether that's in the 2024 NFL Draft, free agency, or in the trade market, it is more likely to happen than it isn't. This suggests that Williams' current value may not be sustainable in the long run, making him a potential sell-high candidate.

Embed from Getty Images
Historical Precedents

Historical data can offer valuable insights into the future prospects of players like Williams. Fifth-round running backs in the NFL have typically faced steep odds in establishing themselves as long-term workhorses.

This year's example, Tyler Allgeier, exemplifies the challenge. Even after an impressive rookie campaign in 2022, he has been swiftly replaced by stud rookie Bijan Robinson and is seeing less and less work every week. The last notable success story from the fifth round was Aaron Jones from the 2017 draft class.

Considering these historical trends, it becomes evident that the window of opportunity for Kyren Williams to maintain his current value may be limited. Therefore, for dynasty teams not in immediate contention, it could be wise to explore trade options to secure future draft capital.

The Trade Market

Determining the appropriate value for Williams in a trade can be challenging, given his unique circumstances. One reasonable benchmark could be targeting a late 2024 first-round pick, a move that aligns with a forward-thinking dynasty strategy. KeepTradeCut.com currently ranks Williams as the dynasty RB17, a position that may not be particularly sustainable given the Rams' ongoing search for elite RB talent.

Embed from Getty Images
A Real-Life Example

To illustrate the trade value of Williams, let's look at a recent real-life trade involving him. One dynasty manager traded Raheem Mostert, Joshua Kelley and Wiliams for a projected early to mid-2024 first-round pick next year. This move reflects the willingness of dynasty owners to invest in future assets and emphasizes the perceived value of securing a first-round pick in a future draft.

Conclusion

Williams' rapid rise as a fantasy football workhorse is a testament to the unpredictability of the NFL. His production in the short term makes him a valuable asset for dynasty teams aiming to contend for a fantasy title this year.

However, the historical challenges faced by fifth-round running backs in the NFL, coupled with the Rams' pursuit of elite RB talent, suggest that Williams' value may not remain at its current peak for long. For dynasty teams not in immediate contention, exploring trade options to acquire future draft capital is a prudent move. Targeting a late 2024 first-round pick can align with a forward-thinking dynasty strategy and help secure long-term success.

In the end, Williams is a compelling and dynamic fantasy asset in the short term. But his long-term prospects are shrouded in uncertainty. Whether you choose to hold onto him or capitalize on his current value is a strategic decision that should align with your team's goals and timeline in the world of dynasty fantasy football.


Check out our other great Fantasy Football content from the F6P Team!

You may also like

Leave a Comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

F6P Badges Banner

Follow us on social media

f6p-logo-footer

A Six Pack of Fantasy Sports

Copyright © 2023 Fantasy Six Pack.