F6P Sports Betting Model Projections are now live on Fantasy Six Pack thanks to me, Aaron Ogdahl (@OgdahlAnalytics) - better known around these parts as OG Analytics!
"In nature, there's something called the food chain. It's where the shark eats the little shark, and the little shark eats the little shark and so on and so on and so on, until you get down to the single-celled shark. So now, replace sharks with paper companies. And that is all you need to know about business." - Michael Scott
The purpose of this article is dual purpose:
- To inform
- To give you an inside sneak-peak at my mathematical models
It's time to formally announce that Fantasy Six Pack has acquired my mathematical models for all sports. Mergers and Acquisitions. M&A is a part of any good business model and in my case, I was the smaller shark on the food chain...and I couldn't be happier!
"I'm taking my talents to F6P. They have incredibly talented fantasy analysts, the best writers, highest-quality Youtube videos, and they even allow subscribers to interact with the talent on Discord," said I while imagining a press conference. "Joe Bond (@F6P_Joe) has created something pretty special: You sign-up, you ask any question, and you get an immediate, well-educated response. It's truly unprecedented in a world where everyone thinks they're brilliant and unique."
The mathematical models are the fruits of a 15-year, animalistically-fueled hunt to beat the sportsbook. So what are they composed of?
Not to be confused with descriptive statistics, my, well F6P's models, are rooted in predictive statistics. Using an ensemble methodology, the goal is to create a more accurate picture than the one oddsmakers have the obligation to create (foreshadowing, pocket that for later).
F6P Sports Betting Model Projections
Imagine scenario A. You're aiming at a bullseye with a rifle you built. You shoot and you miss below the bullseye, down and to the left. You shoot again; same result. Once more; again same result. You built the gun from the ground up, so some variable is causing us to miss consistently in that area.
Now imagine building 3 different rifles and shooting 3 shots yet again. This time, each shot is now a projectile from 3 different guns. All 3 shots may miss by the same amount as the first scenario, but maybe the first shot misses down and to the left; the second shot misses down and to the right; and the third shot misses above the bullseye.
If we take the average of the first scenario, we miss the bullseye. However, if we take the average of the second scenario, we effectively triangulate near the bullseye.
This is effectively how the model works. The 'rifles' I use deal with predictive statistics, linear regression, pure-points, Bayesian Inferences, and Benter Boosts. For a particular sport, I then try and create combinations that tell the best story about how a game will go.
Why do we sometimes need different combinations? Well, sports happen differently. Baseball is effectively thousands of independent events sequenced back to back, while basketball and hockey have a lot of continuous action full of steals, body checks, and weird bounces. We may find one key metric tells a better story than another.
In addition, markets vary as well. The bigger the market, the more difficult the modeling becomes. Take for example, the NFL market is nearly impossible to beat because oddsmakers and books take in the largest handles there and can pay the nerds at MIT to run the tightest of ships. But still, there's opportunity even there: Remember, these are the same nerds that had the Colts winning 10 games this year.
In essence, there's some art in creating the right combinations that tell the most accurate story and finding opportunities. If you don't remember anything else from this rambling dissertation, remember this:
Bettors have the OPTION to bet a game; oddsmakers have the OBLIGATION to put a line out. This is how we establish an advantage.
So, let's get out there and start collecting the four most important positives:
- Positive Expected Value
- Positive Closing Line Value
- Positive ROI
- and a positively good time watching sports
Good luck and bet responsibly!