2016 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Fantasy Baseball ADP Report Hitters

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Credit: Keith Allison

Credit: Keith Allison

Basing your picks and making your decisions during your draft using the most recent season’s statistics can be a troublesome habit in the world of fantasy sports. The flashy statistics that is, big names and big seasons can get you into trouble and provide a full season of scouring the waiver wire waiting to pick up a replacement. You might get lucky and pick up somebody like Mike Trout in 2012, but more than likely you are stuck adding and dropping every hot and cold hitter in the league. This can be avoided by being cautious and not “reaching” for a hitter and rafting them in a round they have no business going in. Now, hindsight is 20/20 and you do not need an expert to point out that in 2014 Chris Davis was not a first round value and that Trout and Andrew McCutchen were, however we can learn from the mistakes of previous seasons and hopefully try to tiptoe around possible overvalued landmines.

Hitters, for the most part, are easier to predict value for upcoming seasons because for most of them going in the first few rounds they are usually pretty consistent. Pitchers go up and down, with hitters if a guy comes into his prime he is usually going to produce on the same level for a few years, the trick to hitters is to jump on the bandwagon right before their ascent and jump off the bandwagon before their descent. I am a fan of jumping off a year too early rather than a year too late. Do not get me wrong, sometimes it can hurt. I know most of us passed on Nelson Cruz last year only to watch him hit several home runs more than we thought, but all in all I would rather roll the dice on younger bats that seem to be on the up and up than older guys who all the signs point to him being on the decline only to pull out a magical season, which could very well be his last season of that caliber of production. If you are in your draft room and are trying to decide between an older player whose name you recognize and a younger player whose name only sounds vaguely familiar, I would take the flier on the younger guy. (Also, shame on you for not having your cheat sheet ready with names of possible young talent, tsk tsk.)

Below is my Fantasy Baseball ADP Report for Hitters.


3 Whose ADP’s is Too High

Credit: Baseball Schedule

Credit: Baseball Schedule

Freddie Freeman (1B – ATL) – Freeman has an ADP of 32 and I just do not think he is early fourth round material. He is going to be the sole run producer in a gutted Atlanta lineup that traded away Justin Upton and Jason Heyward. Freeman is going to be carrying the weight of the younger players as they go through their growing pains. I know by the early third round you have already missed out on blue chip first basemen like Miguel Cabrera, Paul Goldschmidt, and Jose Abreu, and you are going to panic and pick the next 1B you see but I urge you not too. It will be a difficult year in Atlanta for Freeman and I would much rather wait a round or two and roll the dice on Adrian Gonzalez or Victor Martinez who are at least members of high-powered offenses.

Troy Tulowitzki (SS – COL) – 122, 143, 47, 126, 91. Those are Tulo’s total games played for each of the last five seasons. That is too few games for someone with an ADP of 15 right now. I understand he is playing at a shallow position and when he’s healthy he has first round production potential, but that is the thing, he has rarely been healthy for a full season. He has only broken 150 games twice and the closest was six year ago. The injury risk is just too high to waste on a guy who might not be able to give you a full season. I’d rather take a player like Adam Jones or Robinson Cano who are available in the second round.

Kris Bryant (3B – CHC) – We all would love to be the guy who picks up the hot prospect before anyone else. Like I stated in the beginning of this article, I am a big fan of jumping on the bandwagon a tad bit early than too late, but there’s early, and then there’s giving an unproven prospect the ADP of 166. Sure, you might be drafting him to stash or use as trade bait and that’s great. But he shouldn’t be taken with several picks left in standard 10-team leagues. Take him with one of you last two picks if you absolutely have to, he will not be your Opening Day starting third baseman and there are plenty of other solid options out there at this point in the draft if you need a third baseman that desperately. They aren’t attractive names but players like Martin Prado, Chase Headley, and Brett Lawrie are still available at the time of Bryant’s ADP of 166.

3 Whose ADP’s is Too Low

Credit: Keith Allison

Credit: Keith Allison

Matt Holliday (OF – STL) – With five seasons of at least 20 home runs, and 4 seasons of over 90 RBIs I believe Holliday should be drafting much higher than his ADP of 80. He has been consistent year after year and is in a lineup that almost every year seems to produce high offensive quality. A 20-90 guy should be going higher than the ninth round. He is a big name but in recent years has seemed to fly under the radar for some reason. He out produced the likes of Yasiel Puig last year and yet is going about 60 spots behind him this year. It would not be a stretch to see him go two to three rounds earlier than he is.

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Yoenis Cespedes (OF – DET) – The difference a season makes, right? Last year he was all over everyone’s “too high” list because of his high strikeout rate. The strikeouts are always a concern with a hitter like Cespedes but you know what can dramatically boost a player’s stock? Moving to a new team with great hitters. Cespedes is now in the same lineup as Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, and Ian Kinsler. He is a power hitter surrounded by guys who get on base and is currently has an ADP of 67 when he is well worth taking over someone like Nelson Cruz or even Matt Kemp, in my opinion.

Neil Walker(2B – PIT) – He has an ADP of 145 which is way too low for a player with power flashes at a shallow position. Walker is the kind of guy that can make a huge difference on your team because of his power upside. If you miss out on a blue chip second baseman then Walker would be a steal for you at his current ADP.

About Michael Seng

The only thing Michael loves more than playing fantasy baseball is talking about fantasy baseball! An avid New York Yankees fan and baseball enthusiast, Michael has compiled an impressive fantasy baseball record over the years. Got a question? Michael would be happy to answer it via email or on Twitter @MichaelS_F6P.

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