2019 Fantasy Football Draft Kit

Fantasy Football Sleeper: How to Spot One

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You’ve all heard the story. With the 199th pick of the 2000 NFL Draft, the New England Patriots drafted an unimpressive quarterback from Michigan – Tom Brady. General managers and coaches would consider themselves lucky to find a role player at that pick, much less a franchise cornerstone. Since then, all Brady has done is rewrite the record books and make his stamp in history as one of the greatest players in NFL history. Not bad for a guy with man boobs.

This is all to say the Patriots have benefited immensely from absolutely nailing a low draft pick and any fantasy owner should be looking to replicate that. Unearthing a sleeper in the later rounds of the draft is a surefire way to gain an advantage over your opponents.

Sleepers become defined by their relative namelessness before the season and their unexpected production during it. It’s impossible to consistently find these performers, but most sleepers are a product of a perfect symphony of talent and opportunity. By looking at a few different factors, we can give ourselves a better chance of identifying these sleepers.


Jonathan Chan also teaches you How to Spot a Fantasy Football Bust


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How to Spot a Fantasy Football Sleeper

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Opportunity

No matter the talent a player has, they still must have the opportunity to succeed. You can’t score touchdowns while sitting on the bench.

The best thing a player can have going for him is opportunity. Whether that comes about through his own merit or through another player’s injury doesn’t matter. Typical examples from 2018 include James Conner and Gus Edwards.

Next Man Up

While it’s impossible to predict who suffers injury during the course of a season, knowing who MIGHT is important. It’s necessary to consider a player’s injury history when assessing their value. Availability is the best ability. If a player misses six games, they are inherently less valuable than a similar player who plays all 16 games.

It’s also important to think about which players might miss games because their backups automatically have more valuable. For example, Marlon Mack is oft-injured (missed six games over two years) and Emmanuel Sanders is coming off an Achilles injury.

That lets me know I may want to bump Nyheim Hines and Courtland Sutton up my draft boards because they will benefit if either of the above guys go down.

Unconvincing Starters

Teams usually go into the season with their depth chart set, but situations change. If a player doesn’t perform for two or three games, coaches can’t take their time making a change. If you believe a starter won’t be productive, you might be able to get his backup at a lower draft cost.

Take advantage of Twitter to follow teams’ beat writers. They tweet opinions gathered from watching the team up close and speaking to coaches that they won’t put in articles. It’s the fastest and most direct way of gaining information on a fourth string running back or a late-pick wide receiver that you might not have ever heard about.

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A Good Environment

One of the best things an offensive player can have going for him is a stable offense. More specifically, we would like for them to have an elite quarterback. A bad quarterback can make even the best players look pedestrian.

Meanwhile, an explosive offense can put a marginal player in a better situation to put up huge and consistent numbers. Better offenses means more opportunities for yards, catches, and touchdowns on a week to week basis.

For running backs, the presence of a good quarterback is arguably just as important. The talent of any given high end running back may be quite evident on paper, but if defenses don’t have to respect the quarterback, they can stack the box and limit that running back’s production.

Rookies

Another place you can find good value is with rookies. While there are bound to be highly drafted rookies that receive a ton of hype and go high in drafts, there are equally many who go under the radar and slip in drafts. Get to know which rookies fit offensive schemes well and have a legitimate chance of contributing. You might end up with a Calvin Ridley or Nick Chubb late in your draft.

Don’t shy away from a rookie just because he was a late round pick. These days, teams are adept at finding players that fit their schemes and will be ready to produce right away. Patience is sometimes key. If you are able to maintain your bench to hold a potential rookie without discarding him on waiver day with the other deadwood for as long as feasible, you should attempt to do so.


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About Kevin Huo

Kevin is a fantasy football writer for Fantasy Six Pack. He considers every angle - whether statistical or theoretical - when weighing his options and isn't afraid to be a contrarian. You can follow him on Twitter: @KevinMHuo

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