Fantasy Baseball

Heat Check: 2019 Fantasy Baseball Homer Bailey

on

Moneyball is back? Or, Moneyball is back!

Brad Pitt Billy Beane and his swingin’ Oakland A’s are back at it again. The A’s are six games behind the AL West leading Astros. Don’t think they have the firepower to catch the Astros? Oakland currently resides in the second AL wild card, a mere 1.5 games back of wildcard front runners Tampa Bay.

Surely the A’s scouts were on hand to see Homer Bailey and his June 18th road gem at their division rival Mariners. Spinning a 121-pitch. 7.2 inning, five-hit, two BB, six K road start en route to a 9-0 winning was the icing on the trade cake.

Oakland pitchers are often waiver wire targets in fantasy baseball. And 2019 is no different. Since suspended Frankie Montas was a top-tier starter for the bulk of the first half. Current staff Ace Mike Fiers has slowly risen to dominant status. With the kids, A.J. Puk and Jesus Luzardo, working through injuries down on the farm, the A’s had a need for a quality innings starter.

Manager Bob Melvin lets his veteran guys go, pitch count be damned. With the likes of Yusemeiro Petit, All-Star Liam Hendriks, Joakim Soria, Lou Trivino, Ryan Buchter and elite closer Blake Treinen behind him, Bailey enters an amazing new chapter of his career: the playoff push in Oakland and a post All-star break fantasy heat check.

Heat Check: 2019 Fantasy Baseball Homer Bailey

Looking for a Fantasy advantage? Get the ultimate in-season edge with customized Fantasy Baseball advice for your team using MyPlaybook from FantasyPros.

RHP Homer Bailey, SP, Oakland Athletics

Embed from Getty Images

AGE: 33, 10th MLB Season (7th Overall Pick of 2004 Draft by Cincinnati Reds)
7/15 Ownership: ESPN – 9.6%, Yahoo! – 13%, CBS – 30%

Standard Pitching
Year Tm W L W-L% ERA GS CG SHO IP H ER HR BB SO HBP WP BF ERA+ FIP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W Awards
2007 CIN 4 2 .667 5.76 9 0 0 45.1 43 29 3 28 28 3 1 205 81 4.92 1.566 8.5 0.6 5.6 5.6 1.00
2008 CIN 0 6 .000 7.93 8 0 0 36.1 59 32 8 17 18 0 4 180 56 6.41 2.092 14.6 2.0 4.2 4.5 1.06
2009 CIN 8 5 .615 4.53 20 0 0 113.1 115 57 12 52 86 3 6 496 93 4.41 1.474 9.1 1.0 4.1 6.8 1.65
2010 CIN 4 3 .571 4.46 19 1 1 109.0 109 54 11 40 100 3 3 465 91 3.74 1.367 9.0 0.9 3.3 8.3 2.50
2011 CIN 9 7 .563 4.43 22 0 0 132.0 136 65 18 33 106 5 4 561 89 4.06 1.280 9.3 1.2 2.3 7.2 3.21
2012 CIN 13 10 .565 3.68 33 2 1 208.0 206 85 26 52 168 8 3 874 112 3.97 1.240 8.9 1.1 2.3 7.3 3.23
2013 CIN 11 12 .478 3.49 32 2 1 209.0 181 81 20 54 199 10 5 849 108 3.31 1.124 7.8 0.9 2.3 8.6 3.69
2014 CIN 9 5 .643 3.71 23 1 1 145.2 134 60 16 45 124 7 5 604 99 3.93 1.229 8.3 1.0 2.8 7.7 2.76
2015 CIN 0 1 .000 5.56 2 0 0 11.1 16 7 3 4 3 0 0 51 73 7.10 1.765 12.7 2.4 3.2 2.4 0.75
2016 CIN 2 3 .400 6.65 6 0 0 23.0 35 17 2 7 27 2 1 111 65 3.10 1.826 13.7 0.8 2.7 10.6 3.86
2017 CIN 6 9 .400 6.43 18 0 0 91.0 112 65 11 42 67 8 4 420 70 4.91 1.692 11.1 1.1 4.2 6.6 1.60
2018 CIN 1 14 .067 6.09 20 1 0 106.1 141 72 23 33 75 2 2 494 68 5.55 1.636 11.9 1.9 2.8 6.3 2.27
2019 KCR 7 6 .538 4.80 18 0 0 90.0 89 48 12 38 81 2 2 389 97 4.48 1.411 8.9 1.2 3.8 8.1 2.13
13 Y 13 Y 74 83 .471 4.58 230 7 4 1320.1 1376 672 165 445 1082 53 40 5699 90 4.23 1.379 9.4 1.1 3.0 7.4 2.43
162 162 11 12 .471 4.58 34 1 1 195 203 99 24 66 160 8 6 842 90 4.23 1.379 9.4 1.1 3.0 7.4 2.43
CIN CIN 67 77 .465 4.56 212 7 4 1230.1 1287 624 153 407 1001 51 38 5310 89 4.21 1.377 9.4 1.1 3.0 7.3 2.46
KCR KCR 7 6 .538 4.80 18 0 0 90.0 89 48 12 38 81 2 2 389 97 4.48 1.411 8.9 1.2 3.8 8.1 2.13
NL ( NL ( 67 77 .465 4.56 212 7 4 1230.1 1287 624 153 407 1001 51 38 5310 89 4.21 1.377 9.4 1.1 3.0 7.3 2.46
AL ( AL ( 7 6 .538 4.80 18 0 0 90.0 89 48 12 38 81 2 2 389 97 4.48 1.411 8.9 1.2 3.8 8.1 2.13
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 7/15/2019.

The main takeaways from Bailey’s 2019 are simple and straightforward. After being tossed into the epic salary dump trade highlighted by Alex Wood and Puig heading to Queen City, Bailey was cut by the Dodgers. Landing with the Royals on a minimum salary was a pure career revitalization move. This intrigues us because his first stint in the AL has gone decently well, though unevenly.

Obvious take: Bailey sports a 3-1 record with a 3.35 ERA across his last eight starts. That’s why we find ourselves here now. His 1.1 WAR is his highest since the 2014 season. The 8.1 K/9 rate is his best since 2013, a stealthy rise after bottoming out at career-low 6.3 in 2018.

Homer Bailey Pitch Velocity Over Career

Photo Credit: Brooks Baseball

Bailey’s 2014-2015 Tommy John surgery is now fully in the rear. And his velocity in this, his age-33 season, is not concerning. His four-seam has experienced a negligible change of -.35 MPH, residing right around his career average. The same can be said about his slider and curve, which are almost identical to last season’s velocity through July.

Heat Check: The Peripherals

Run Support in Games Started
Avg 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Other Game Totals
5.10 2 2 3 1 3 4 1 1 15 runs
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 7/15/2019.

Bailey leaves behind Kansas City’s 23rd ranked offense, 11th in the AL. Via the trade, Bailey now will have the support of Oakland’s offense, ranked 8th in the MLB, and the 5th best in the AL. This is an A’s lineup that also has missed out on Matt Olson and Khris Davis‘ bats for extended periods during the season. With Ramon Laureano coming on hot and Khris Davis an easy option to get it going soon, the offense is a severe upgrade.

The defense behind him stays stellar in the move. The Royals defense has the lowest errors committed with 35, along with a .989 fielding percentage. The A’s have the fifth-lowest errors committed in the MLB with 46, along with a .986 fielding percentage. With platinum glove winner Matt Chapman and gold glover Matt Olson reigning the infield and Ramon Laureano firing missiles from the outfield, the unit could actually be a sneaky upgrade.

A's vs. Royals Pitcher's Park Factors Comparison

Home TeamRuns
(MLB Rank)
HR
(MLB Rank)
Hits
(MLB RANK)
2B
(MLB Rank)
3B
(MLB Rank)
Oakland A's0.856
(6th Best)
0.821
(8th Best)
0.961
(10th Best)
1.074
(9th Worst)
0.522
(5th Best)
KC Royals1.079
(7th Worst)
0.746
(4th Best)
1.032
(8th Worst)
1.204
(5th Worst)
1.500
(6th Worst)

The crowning heat added to Bailey’s bid to join your roster is the park factors differentials. We mentioned before how Oakland is a pitcher’s mecca for fantasy purposes. Ask Mike Fiers. As you can see above, taking into account all the peripherals make Bailey worth gambling on with a roster spot. Vastly improved run support, quality defense continuity, great home park, and a manager willing to leave veteran arms in for 120+ pitches. The stars have awkwardly aligned for Homer Bailey’s fantasy potential.

The Verdict: Try Him Out this Wednesday

July begins a rough stretch for fantasy baseball managers. The well that is the waiver wire dries up and potential becomes the name of the assessment game. Maybe Homer Bailey isn’t going to push you over the edge in any category. But he has the potential to be your Joe Blanton inning-eater type in your SP5 slot that could churn out quality starts with Ks to boot.

Sign up for the Fantasy Six Pack Newsletter to receive email updates.


His Oakland debut is slated for Wednesday, July 17th. Against those same Mariners, he demolished on June 18th. At his new home in Oakland. Get him now as a spot start, and if all goes to plan, keep rolling him out as a good match-up based option. If we happen to get consistency out of him, then cheers to your fantasy playoff push.


Check out the rest of our 2019 Fantasy Baseball content from our great team of writers.

About Samir Qurashi

Samir Qurashi is from the Bay. He thinks football is a good time. You can get at him with any fantasy football questions on the tweeter: @FSPsamir and by electronica: ssq.FSP@gmail.com. He remains unspooked.

Recommended for you

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.