How to Become a Player Flipper – DapScout’s Corner

by Dap Scout
How to Become a Player Flipper

Thanks for coming back to another edition of DapScout's Corner. This week I will be covering: How to Become a Player Flipper

This week I will cover:

I'm trying my best to power through this post because that is what heroes do. However, I have to admit I am very uncomfortable. I am cold. I HATE being cold.  Because I had to remove my main weapon against the cold. My pajama pants.

I was given some pretty subtle clues that it was time to take them off.

"It is 4 pm are you still wearing those?"

"Come on seriously it is dinner, have you even taken a shower?"

"They have stains on them, have you washed them in the last month?" and of course "Are you just writing down everything I say to put in your article?"

We as a society need to normalize pajama pants being worn all day. At the office, at the grocery store, and at the gym (I don't go to the gym but I'm trying to be as inclusive as possible). When I wake up my pajama pants are my shield against the ugliness of the world. Making me take my Tony the Tiger (for those who don't know who is this amazing animal, who sacrifices so much to bring us sugary goodness) pajama pants off before I am ready is like waking up a sleeping puppy. Look how happy that puppy is? Do you really want to wake it up? No, you want it to enjoy its warm dreams, its happy thoughts, and feel loved.

Pajama pants are like a hug for your soul. Help me by giving everyone you love pajama pants! Stop the pajama pants shaming!!

(This message was brought to you by United Pajama Pants Society for Good)

How to Become a Player Flipper

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If you have been reading my previous award-winning posts you would already know that if the season is shortened you can expect injuries and more injuries. Even if MLB plays 162 games I am willing to guarantee there will be at least one injury.

So how do you profit off of injuries?

By grabbing historically fast starters and flipping them for prospects (if you are in dynasty) or a few players that can fill statistical holes (if you are in boring single-season fantasy).

This week we will target hitters that will get off to a fast start in 2022, that you will want to flip. Flipping is Good!

What are our parameters to find a good flipper:

Going off of NFBC ADP we are aiming for anyone with a  ranking of greater than #200

Using Fangraphs Splits Leaderboard we then look for players that took off the months of April and May of last season.

Then we dig to see if there is any reason they will be successful this season. Such as being traded for a new team, coming off an injury, or a chance for more playing time.

A flipper is different than a sleeper in one particular area. A sleeper I believe will produce all season. While a flipper is someone who may produce all season but I'm not sold on that happening.

Let me take you through a player that I would target in drafts who is a flip target.

Carson Kelly - Current NFBC ADP 290

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April 2021 - No. 5 player in MLB for OPS (78 PAs vs league leader at that point 123)

BB%K%BB/KAvgOBPSLGOPS
19.2%12.8%1.5.339.487.6961.184

It would be easy to discount this hot stretch but Carson Kelly rebuilt his swing during the 2020 offseason (The Athletic) and as you can tell it really paid off.

Now let's take a look at May -

BB%K%BB/KAvgOBPSLGOPS
14.5%27.4%0.5.260.355.300.655

May 1st - 15th -

BB%K%BB/KAvgOBPSLGOPS
21.6%16.2%1.3.333.459.407.867

May 24th-31st -

BB%K%BB/KAvgOBPSLGOPS
4%44%0.1.174.200.174.374

On May 15th Kelly had a left great toe tuft fracture. He was riding another hot streak, but once he returned from the injury on the 24th his K's went up and everything else good in the World (including Oreo cookie consumption) went down.

Kelly's Injury

I asked Nic Civale PT, DPT (follow him on Twitter) what does this type of injury mean. He said:

"As a right-handed swinger, you are putting down significant pressure through the great (big) toe in order to create leverage through the back hip and to provide power. Also, driving off of that foot while running to first would be a large burden on the toe.

What’s most taxing though, is the squatting to catch.

Even with the normal recovery time taken into consideration (8-12 weeks for most bones to fully heal to previous strength), there’s still a question of the strength of surrounding muscle tissue, and catching requires plenty of that. Over the recovery period, you inevitably lose some strength in the surrounding muscle due to casting, bracing, or limiting weight-bearing. Even upon Carson's return, there’s no doubt he was limited in his strength compared to pre-injury"

Another Injury

On June 20th, Walker Buehler threw a 96-mph fastball that hit Carson Kelly on his wrist. The wrist was fractured and he would go on to miss 31 games. After the wrist injury, Kelly's power was almost non-existent. Speaking to wrist specialists, healthy wrists are important.

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Final Verdict

I'm betting after an off-season to heal, Kelly will have another fast start in 2022. Don't believe me? Let's bring in injury expert Nic Civale to give his endorsement: "He’s a great candidate for a true breakout year."

Why do we flip him?

He is a catcher. Except for the occasional historic Salvador Perez 2021 season, you want to get whatever you can for a catcher before they inevitably get hurt or just plain wear down as the season goes on. However in this case, if you have a hot catcher who has the capabilities of being a top 75 hitter, for a short period of time, why not grab a few top 150 prospects and move on.

There is always a decent OBP catcher on waiver wires. I typically target ones that will only play 90ish games so they don't hurt any of my categories in my head-to-head leagues. If I hear the words "strong side platoon" and "catcher" you have me excited.

Now that we have gone through an introduction of flipping, next week I will give you wonderful people some more hitting candidates that we should look to flip during the season.

Seriously you are still reading?

If you made it this far, I have a secret to tell you! Liopleurodons are magical! Either way, thank you for reading. I promise to suck less next week! If you have any ideas about what I should cover, a show I should watch, or ways to break my habit of double-spacing after periods, leave me a comment below or hit me up on Twitter - @dapscout.


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2 comments

How to Become a Player Flipper Part 2 - DapScout's Corner - Fantasy Six Pack January 8, 2022 - 4:00 pm

[…] This week I continue my Player Flipper series with, How to Become a Player Flipper Part 2. Here is the link to last week’s article where I introduced the term Player Flipper – “How to Become a Player Flipper“. […]

Reply
How to Become a Player Flipper Part 3 - Quick Hits - Fantasy Six Pack January 16, 2022 - 7:31 am

[…] This week I continue my Player Flipper series with, How to Become a Player Flipper Part 3 – Quick Hits. Here is the link to the article where I introduced Player Flipper – “How to Become a Player Flipper.” […]

Reply

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