Is Josh Allen the QB1 With TE Dalton Kincaid As His Top Target? | 2024 Buffalo Bills Fantasy Football Draft Guide

by Dylan Clemons
Josh Allen Still QB1

The Buffalo Bills had one of the most interesting NFL offseasons. In this article, we will break down some of the biggest questions heading into the 2024 Fantasy Football season surrounding the Buffalo Bills, including if Josh Allen can finish as the QB1 with TE Dalton Kincaid as his top target, diving into the WR room and just how good RB James Cook can be.

Buffalo moved on from star Fantasy Football wide receiver Stefon Diggs as they shipped him off to the Houston Texans. Then, on the other side from Diggs, they also decided to move on from Gabe Davis, leaving questions in the wide receiver room.

Their defense also had to be revamped after losing Tre'Davious White, Micah Hyde, and Jordan Poyer.

Now that we are into June, we can start assessing these roster moves and how they affect Fantasy Football. Since Josh Allen was drafted by the Buffalo Bills, you have always wanted pieces of this Bills offense. With Diggs and Davis both gone, many questions surround this offense. I hope to answer all of those questions with these Buffalo Bills Fantasy Football insights.

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Is Josh Allen the QB1?

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Josh Allen has finished as either the QB1 or QB2 in Fantasy Football in four straight seasons. A lot of that has had to do with his rushing production, as he hasn't rushed for less than 400 yards in four straight years. During that span, he has also scored at least six rushing touchdowns every year and is coming off a 15-rushing touchdown season.

Those 15 touchdowns are a massive reason why he finished as QB1 last season, but that number is not sustainable. However, if we are taking away some rushing touchdowns this year for Allen I am willing to give him a few more touchdowns through the air.

Through the air last season, Josh Allen's numbers negatively regressed. He threw under 30 touchdowns for the first time since 2019 and threw a career-high in interceptions with 18 which led the NFL.

Where Allen struggled through the air the most this past season was the deep ball. According to playerprofiler.com, his deep ball completion percentage was just 31% which was 24th in the NFL. Allen also struggled while under pressure, having a pressured catchable pass rate of just 44.5%, which was the 30th best.

With Josh Allen losing his top two targets in the offense, Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, along with his center Mitch Morse, I do not see him finishing as the QB1 this year. However, I don't have him far off as he ranks as my QB3 this season behind just Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts.

Who Will Lead the Buffalo Bills in Targets?

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With the departure of Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, and Trent Sherfield that has freed up 263 targets in this offense. The returning pass catchers are Khalil Shakir (45 targets), Dalton Kincaid (91 targets) and Dawson Knox (36 targets).

This offseason, they brought in Curtis Samuel from the Washington Commanders. Then in the 2024 NFL Draft, they took wide receiver Keon Coleman from Florida State with the first pick of the second round.

With all the moving pieces within this offense, there is one man who sticks out to me the most and that is second-year tight end Dalton Kincaid. It is in the realm of possibilities that Kincaid will be the top-target getter in this offense. He saw 91 targets as a rookie, and that number could climb up to the 120 range. Kincaid also only scored two touchdowns during his rookie campaign and you have to believe that number will go up. With him sitting at 6' 4", he makes for the perfect red zone target, and he is someone Josh Allen can trust.

Dalton Kincaid is my top pass-catching option in this offense, and I believe he will lead this team in targets. He is my number one guy that I am targeting from this Bill offense with his top-3 tight end upside, and you can get him in the 5th round of Fantasy drafts.

Wide Receiver Room

The Buffalo Bills Fantasy Football outlook is intriguing. Khalil Shakir flashed at times last year and you have to believe his role will expand heading into this season. He played on just 53% of the snaps as a rookie as a part-time slot receiver. Shakir lined up in the slot on 69% of his snaps last season, and that's where he thrives.

That's why the signing of Curtis Samuel was a bit confusing at the time because he also played around 69% of his snaps last season as a slot wide receiver. It will be interesting to see how they deploy those two. We do know one thing about Curtis Samuel and that he is not an alpha, he has not seen more than 92 targets in any year since he came into the league.

As for the rookie, Keon Coleman, he walks into a wonderful spot as a starting outside wide receiver in a Josh Allen-led offense. He is a big-body receiver that the Bills really lacked outside of Dalton Kincaid making him a solid possession receiver. Coleman lacks a bit of speed as he ran just a 4.6 40-yard dash but he could still be a red zone threat because of his size if he can separate at the NFL level.

For me, all of these wide receivers are lumped in the same group and so is the consensus ADP as they sit between WR47-WR56.  I am ok taking a shot at all of these guys and hope they break out. However, I am not drafting any of them thinking they will be a starter in my lineup week in and week out. I will most likely end up with the last one of them that is left on the draft board.

Can James Cook Return RB1 Value in 2024?

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In Weeks 1-17 last season, James Cook finished as the RB10, in half-PPR. He did that with just six touchdowns - 24th for running backs - and 42 receptions on 54 targets which was 17th amongst running backs. Cook even had the second-highest yards per reception at the running back position, and they still do not use that enough.

Because of the lack of touchdowns and pass-catching work Cook just wasn't the most consistent at times. He finished as a top-12 running back six times and outside of the top-24 seven times. Cook was very boom or bust last season, but when he started to get the volume during the back half of the season, he started to thrive. In a four-game stretch between Weeks 11-15 he had at least 15 touches in each of those games and finished as a top-12 RB.

The Bills could look to move toward a more balanced approach this season and want to cut down on Josh Allen's turnovers. With a ton of vacated targets, they may have to emphasize getting Cook the ball in the passing game. There is a pathway where he sees 70-75 targets making him a viable backend RB1 in Fantasy Football. The only real competition in the backfield is Ray Davis whom they drafted in the 4th round. Davis is someone who may take some carries away from Cook inside the red zone, but not much else.

Final Thoughts

My final thoughts are that the Bills are still going to be an offense you want to target in Fantasy Football drafts. With James Cook and Dalton Kincaid being drafted in the 4th and 5th rounds, they make for the perfect Bills to target in your drafts.


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